风电场建设项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 06:56

本文选题：风电场建设 + 风险识别评价　；参考：《华北电力大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源是经济和社会发展的重要基础。工业革命以来,世界能源消费剧增,生态环境不断恶化,特别是温室气体排放导致日益严峻的全球气候变化。大力开发和利用清洁能源和可再生能源,成为世界各国保障能源安全、优化能源结构、保护生态环境、减少温室气体排放的重要措施,也是我国实现经济社会资源和环境可持续协调发展的必由之路。风力资源作为可再生能源的一种是我国重要的能源资源,在满足能源需求、改善能源结构、减少环境污染、促进经济发展等方面已发挥了重要作用。目前,风电项目正处于发展阶段,它不完全等同于电网公司原来的变电站项目,其建设项目存在诸多不确定因素,而这些不确定因素可能导致一些不可避免的风险,进而对风电建设项目的实施以及未来的运营带来不利的影响。因此有必要对风电建设项目风险展开相关研究,以求在进行项目建设的过程中合理规划、科学布局、规避风险。本文首先介绍了项目风险识别、评价及管理策略的基本理论,将项目风险管理理论引入风电建设项目管理中。采用德尔菲法识别了风电建设项目面临的技术因素、经济因素、资源因素、环境因素及合同因素等风险因素。在此基础上,确定各指标权重,并使用模糊综合评价法对风险进行了评价,构建风电建设项目综合评价指标体系;运用层次分析法(AHP法)计算各级综合评价指标权重,分析不同因子对总体风险的影响程度,运用多级模糊综合评价模型(FCE)定量研究当前风电建设项目的风险状况;结合分析结果提出基于技术因素、经济因素、资源因素、环境因素及合同因素等不同风险因素的风险规避措施。论文对风电建设项目面临的风险进行了研究,对其面临的风险因素进行了识别、评价,提出了规避风险的应对策略,将为今后风电建设项目建设提供一定的参考。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important foundation for economic and social development. Since the Industrial Revolution, the world energy consumption has increased dramatically, the ecological environment has been deteriorating, especially the greenhouse gas emissions have led to increasingly severe global climate change. To vigorously develop and utilize clean and renewable energy sources has become an important measure for countries in the world to ensure energy security, optimize energy structure, protect the ecological environment and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is also the only way to realize the sustainable development of economic and social resources and environment. As a kind of renewable energy, wind energy has played an important role in meeting energy demand, improving energy structure, reducing environmental pollution and promoting economic development. At present, the wind power project is in the development stage. It is not exactly equivalent to the original substation project of the power grid company. There are many uncertain factors in its construction project, and these uncertainties may lead to some inevitable risks. Then the implementation of wind power construction projects and future operations bring adverse impact. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out relevant research on the risk of wind power construction project in order to reasonably plan, scientific layout and avoid risks in the process of project construction. This paper first introduces the basic theory of project risk identification, evaluation and management strategy, and introduces the theory of project risk management into wind power construction project management. By using Delphi method, risk factors such as technical factors, economic factors, resource factors, environmental factors and contract factors are identified. On this basis, the weight of each index is determined, and the risk is evaluated by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of wind power construction project is constructed, and the AHP method is used to calculate the weight of the comprehensive evaluation index at all levels. This paper analyzes the influence of different factors on the overall risk, uses the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to quantitatively study the risk situation of the current wind power construction project, and puts forward the analysis results based on the technical factors, economic factors and resource factors. Environmental factors and contract factors such as different risk factors risk avoidance measures. In this paper, the risk of wind power construction project is studied, the risk factors are identified and evaluated, and the countermeasures to avoid the risk are put forward, which will provide a certain reference for wind power construction project construction in the future.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM614

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