济青高速公路扩建项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 23:17

本文选题：济青高速公路 + 风险识别　；参考：《青岛大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,高速公路建设成为国家基础建设发展的重要内容之一,全国范围内高速公路建设总里程和建设质量不断上升。但是,高速公路建设项目由于资金投入量大、建设周期长、土地和资源占用量大等特点,项目从前期的可行性分析、方案设计、施工建设到竣工验收会面临着各种各样的风险及不确定因素。这些不确定因素或风险因素会直接导致高速公路建设项目的工期延长、成本增加,给社会、建设方、承包方都带来了较大的危害。因此,针对建设项目展开风险因素的具体调查分析以控制建设项目不可预见事件发生的重要性已经得到社会各界和利益相关方的高度重视。本研究以济青高速公路扩建项目作为案例,利用文献调研方法与专家访谈方法识别出扩建项目全生命周期中存在的38个风险并将其分为18大类。其次,利用三轮专家打分法来评估各项风险因素发生的可能性大小及其所带来的影响。三轮专家打分评估结果表明,组织不力造成冲突、矛盾带来的风险在所有的风险中得分最高,不利于施工的异常自然环境带来的风险,项目管理不当带来的风险以及发生设计变更带来的风险等因素也获得了较高的评分。通过分析发现,扩建项目施工阶段发生风险事件可能性较大,需要加强该阶段的控制管理。最后,针对全生命周期各阶段的风险提出了风险控制与管理措施。本文对济青高速公路扩建项目的风险管理具有一定的指导意义,同时对类似公路建设相关研究也具有一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the expressway construction has become one of the important contents of the national infrastructure development, and the total mileage and construction quality of the national expressway construction have been rising continuously. However, due to the characteristics of the expressway construction project, such as large amount of capital input, long construction period, large amount of land and resources, etc., the project from the pre-feasibility analysis, project design, Construction to the completion of acceptance will face a variety of risks and uncertainties. These uncertain factors or risk factors will directly lead to the extension of the expressway construction project, the cost increases, to the society, the construction party, contractors have brought greater harm. Therefore, the importance of carrying out specific investigation and analysis of risk factors to control unforeseen events in construction projects has been highly valued by all sectors of society and stakeholders. In this study, 38 risks in the whole life cycle of the expansion project were identified by literature research and expert interviews and divided into 18 categories. Secondly, three rounds of expert scoring method are used to evaluate the probability and impact of various risk factors. The results of three rounds of expert scoring and evaluation show that the lack of organization results in conflicts, and the risks brought by contradictions have the highest score among all the risks, which are not conducive to the risks brought by the abnormal natural environment of construction. The risk caused by improper project management and the risk of design change are also rated well. Through analysis, it is found that the possibility of risk events in the construction phase of the extension project is great, and the control management in this stage should be strengthened. Finally, the risk control and management measures are put forward for each stage of the whole life cycle. This paper has a certain guiding significance for risk management of Ji-Qing Expressway extension project, and also has certain reference value to the similar highway construction related research.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U415.1

【参考文献】