基于博弈论的工程项目多阶段多主体协同管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-11 15:21

本文选题：博弈论 + 工程项目管理　；参考：《安徽建筑大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：建筑业作为国民经济的支柱产业,既为经济社会发展提供了物质技术基础,也依赖于经济社会发展为自己提供需求。伴随着我国经济的转型升级,建筑业依然面临着发展带来的问题。在工程项目管理实践中,项目决策、设计、招投标、施工、竣工验收阶段之间存在着信息壁垒,阶段之间脱节;业主、承包商、监理方等利益相关者之间存在着信息不对称、利益分配冲突的问题。因此,本文将博弈论运用到工程项目管理中,结合协同管理思想,建立多方博弈的数学模型,分析影响不同阶段主体收益的因素,提出全过程工程项目管理系统的协同机制。本文主要从最小化成本和最大化收益两个方面出发,运用协同管理思想,分析不同阶段的工作内容、不同利益主体之间的博弈关系,提出创新性的研究思路。通过对建设工程项目准备、实施阶段工作内容的详细论述,找出过程管理中问题的解决途径——结合博弈论与协同管理思想。全文共包括六章,第一章为绪论,介绍选题的提出,研究的意义、思路和主要内容等。第二章概述研究的理论基础。第三章阐述工程项目不同阶段的协同管理内容。第四、五章为本文研究的重点。第四章是工程项目多阶段多主体协同管理博弈分析。首先明确地指出博弈论与工程项目各阶段协同管理结合的必要性与可行性,从“横向”上构建了工程项目决策阶段、招标投标阶段、施工阶段的博弈模型,建立不同阶段协同管理模型,优化管理内容,找出影响利益主体行为的主要因素,得出最优决策均衡解。第五章是工程项目协同管理机制研究。针对各阶段利益分配的影响因素,从“纵向上”建立不同阶段的有效协同机制,为决策者提供解决各阶段所面临实际问题的方案。本文研究结论:不同阶段不同主体选择的博弈模型不同,所采取的最优策略也不同;不同阶段不同主体有着相同的协同管理机制。在决策阶段,政府部门和业主的博弈分析表明,政府的优惠及补贴政策会激励业主考虑社会效益,同时业主愿意支付额外成本来获得更高的收益。在招投标阶段,报价最优区间模型和报价均值预测模型的博弈分析和实证分析表明,提高技术能力降低报价成本才能获取最优报价。在施工阶段,构建业主、监理方、承包商、非营利组织四方主体之间的单阶段和多阶段博弈模型,不同利益主体会选择不同的决策行为。最后,在博弈均衡结果及不同主体利益影响因素的基础上总结出协同管理机制。
[Abstract]:As the pillar industry of the national economy, the construction industry not only provides the material and technical basis for the economic and social development, but also depends on the economic and social development to provide its own needs. With the economic transformation and upgrading of our country, the construction industry still faces the problems brought by the development. In the practice of project management, there are information barriers between project decision-making, design, bidding, construction, completion and acceptance, disconnect between stages, information asymmetry among stakeholders such as owner, contractor, supervision, etc. The issue of conflict of interest. Therefore, this paper applies game theory to engineering project management, combines the idea of cooperative management, establishes the mathematical model of multi-party game, analyzes the factors that affect the main body's income in different stages, and puts forward the cooperative mechanism of the whole process engineering project management system. In this paper, from the two aspects of minimizing cost and maximizing benefit, using the idea of cooperative management, we analyze the contents of work in different stages and the game relationship between different stakeholders, and put forward innovative research ideas. Through the detailed discussion of the contents of the construction project preparation and the implementation stage, the author finds out the solution to the problems in process management, which combines the game theory with the cooperative management thought. The first chapter is the introduction, which introduces the proposition of the topic, the significance of the research, the train of thought and the main contents. The second chapter summarizes the theoretical basis of the study. The third chapter describes the contents of collaborative management in different stages of engineering projects. The fourth and fifth chapters are the focus of this paper. The fourth chapter is the game analysis of multi-stage multi-agent cooperative management. Firstly, the paper points out the necessity and feasibility of the combination of game theory and cooperative management in every stage of engineering project, and constructs the game model of project decision stage, bidding stage and construction stage from the "horizontal" point of view. The cooperative management model of different stages is established, the management content is optimized, the main factors influencing the behavior of the stakeholders are found, and the optimal decision equilibrium solution is obtained. The fifth chapter is the research of cooperative management mechanism of engineering project. Aiming at the influence factors of benefit distribution in different stages, the effective cooperative mechanism in different stages is established "vertically" to provide the decision makers with solutions to the practical problems in each stage. The conclusion of this paper is that different game models of different agents in different stages have different optimal strategies and different agents in different stages have the same cooperative management mechanism. In the decision-making stage, the game analysis between the government and the owners shows that the preferential and subsidy policies of the government will motivate the owners to consider the social benefits, and the owners are willing to pay extra costs to obtain higher returns. In the bidding stage, the game analysis and empirical analysis of the optimal interval model and the average forecasting model show that the best quotation can be obtained only by improving the technical ability and reducing the cost of the quotation. In the construction stage, the single-stage and multi-stage game models among the owners, supervisors, contractors and non-profit organizations are constructed, and different stakeholders choose different decision-making behaviors. Finally, the cooperative management mechanism is summed up on the basis of game equilibrium results and the influence factors of different subjects' interests.
【学位授予单位】：安徽建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU71

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