延吉市解放路步行街人防工程项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-17 22:14

本文选题：人防工程 + 地下商街　；参考：《吉林大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：人防地下商业建筑就是把人防工程在平时用于商业经营。近年来，这种具有商业地产性质的投资模式和建设形态显示出特殊的优势：由于国家鼓励社会投资修建人防工程，因而，使投资修建人防地下商业街享有在城市繁华商业区选址建设地下商业设施的难得历史机遇，并可享受减免土地使用费等优惠政策。地下商街建设具有工期短、利润高、投资回收快的特点，吸引了社会投资纷纷进入这个特殊的地下商业地产领域。人防地下商业街项目建设同时具有很大的风险和不可预见性：较地上建筑施工组织难度大、技术安全措施要求高、涉及的风险因素多；区别于建设地上商业设施的定位、营销、经营管理模式，较高的建筑成本和苛刻的建设周期，所以投资人防商业建筑机遇和风险并存。由于部分投资者为了抢抓机遇，盲目跟风建设，缺乏成熟的建设经验和风险控制理念，，使得不少项目在建设过程中遭遇风险损失，甚至在投入运营后停业关闭。本文研究的对象是延吉市解放路步行街人防工程项目的风险管理，研究中综合运用了经验类比法、专家打分法、核对表法、优势劣势分析法，进行项目建设过程的风险识别、估计、评价，风险排序，并找出影响项目的主要风险，提出风险控制的措施，为项目管理中有效规避和控制风险提供指导，对修建人防地下商业建筑项目的风险管理做了有益的尝试。第一章，解放路步行街项目的背景概况和研究方法：阐述了项目建设的背景，介绍了项目的基本情况，说明了实施风险管理的必要性。论文的意义，风险管理研究采用的调查表法、专家打分法、对比分析法、优势劣势分析法等风险的识别和分析方法。第二章，建设项目的风险识别。首先通过调查、借鉴专家经验梳理总结出人防工程建设的成功和失败经验风险核对表，依据进行项目整体风险识别。然后以项目的时间为主要轴线，把项目建设管理分成决策阶段、准备阶段、建设阶段、销售阶段四个阶段。分别对这四个阶段中的风险进行了识别，并在此基础上整理形成了整个项目的风险清单。第三章，项目风险的估计与评价。运用专家打分法分层进行项目各阶段风险的识别和评估，借助具有丰富人防工程开发、建设、经营管理经验的专家，对识别的各项风险因素赋值，计算出整个项目的风险度和各项风险因素的分值，根据分值大小进行风险度排序，同时运用SWOT方法，从不同角度分析验证了项目最大的风险因素。第四章，项目的主要风险控制方案。对风险度排序最高的四项主要风险，也是关系项目成败和效益的主要风险，进行风险控制研究，分别提出了应对方案，供风险管理参考。结论总结了项目风险识别和风险评估的结果、实用价值，研究方法的特点及论文存在的不足。本文在论文写作过程中，大量调查总结了吉林省人防地下商场工程建设和经营管理经验，作为经验调查法整体风险评估借鉴的依据。采用专家打分方法，由有丰富人防建设经验专家对各项风险因素赋值，分层的进行了项目各阶段风险的识别和评估，掌握各项风险因素的严重程度。并运用SWOT方法从管理角度，以项目管理者自身内部的优势和劣势条件与外部的环境条件，从不同角度进一步验证分析项目建设存在的主要风险。本文的特点是采取工程建设实际经验和理论分析相结合的方法，分析方法便于掌握，更加符合工程建设的实际，研究成果可直接用于指导工程建设风险控制。也可供投资地下人防商场建设管理借鉴和参考。
[Abstract]:The construction of underground commercial street has the characteristics of short period of work , high profit and fast investment recovery , attracting social investment into this special field of underground commercial property .

People ' s underground commercial street project construction has a great risk and non - predictability : higher difficulty of construction organization in the ground , high requirements for technical safety measures , and more risk factors involved ;
It is different from the location , marketing , operation management mode , higher construction cost and severe construction period of the above - ground commercial facilities , so the opportunity and the risk of investing in the commercial building are co - existing . As some investors seek to seize the opportunity , blindly follow the wind , lack the mature construction experience and the risk control concept , many projects encounter risk losses during the construction process , even after the operation is put into operation .

The object of this paper is the risk management of the pedestrian protection project of Jiading Street Pedestrian Street in Yanji City . The research includes experience analogy method , expert scoring method , checklist method , advantage disadvantage analysis method , risk identification , estimation , evaluation , risk ranking of project construction process , risk identification , estimation , evaluation and risk ranking of project construction process , and find out the measures for risk control , provide guidance for effective avoidance and control risk in project management , and make a useful attempt to construct the risk management of underground commercial building project .

The first chapter , the background of Jiefang Road Pedestrian Street project and the research methods are as follows : the background of project construction is described , the necessity of implementing risk management is described , the paper ' s significance , the questionnaire method used in risk management study , expert scoring method , comparative analysis method and superiority inferior analysis method are used to identify and analyze the risks .

In the second chapter , the risk identification of the construction project is identified . First , through the investigation , we draw lessons from the experience of experts , summarize the risk checklist of success and failure of the project , and then divide the project construction management into four stages : decision - making stage , preparation stage , construction stage and sales phase .

In chapter 3 , the project risk is estimated and evaluated . By using expert scoring method to identify and evaluate the risks in each stage of the project , the risk factors and the risk factors of the project are calculated based on the experts who have rich human defense project development , construction and management experience . The risk degree is ranked according to the size of the score , and the SWOT method is used to analyze the risk factors of the project from different angles .

In chapter 4 , the main risk control scheme of the project is the four main risks of the highest risk ranking , and also the main risk of the success and failure of the relationship project and the benefit , and the risk control study is carried out , and the corresponding scheme is proposed for risk management reference , respectively .

Conclusion The results of the project risk identification and risk assessment , the practical value , the characteristics of the research method and the shortcomings of the paper are summarized .

In the process of writing paper , a great deal of investigation sums up the experiences of engineering construction and operation management of people ' s underground stores in Jilin Province as the basis for reference for the whole risk assessment of empirical investigation .

The characteristic of this paper is that the method of combining practical experiences and theoretical analysis of engineering construction is adopted , the analysis method is convenient to master , more consistent with the actual project construction , and the research results can be directly used to guide the risk control of engineering construction . It can also be used for reference and reference for the construction management of underground pedestrian protection .
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71

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