基于BN方法的铁路施工系统质量绩效路径模型及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 21:20

本文选题：铁路施工系统 + 质量评价　；参考：《西南交通大学》2016年博士论文

【摘要】：质量评价不仅包含产品质量评价,也包含过程质量评价,同时还包含组织系统的质量评价等不同层次的评价内容,所以,进行质量评价首先必须明确评价的对象,没有明确对象的质量评价是无意义和无效的评价。产品质量评价通常是依据产品质量验收标准来进行的,而对于组织系统质量的评价至今还没有形成很好的理论或具体的实操办法,然而理论界和实业界越来越多的人士已经开始认识到它的重要性。例如：在上个世纪90年代朱兰提出的“大质量”概念中就包括系统质量的内涵；另外,有关服务系统质量评价、经济系统运行质量评价的研究文献也开始慢慢增多起来；同时,在铁路施工领域,由于针对工程产品的质量评价中存在着诸多的不确定性和不准确性,所以研究铁路施工系统的质量评价问题就显得尤为必要,因为最终的工程产品质量是由施工系统质量决定的。由于“系统质量”这一概念较为模糊,且缺少明确而严格的操作定义,故此本文在研究过程中采用了另外一个具有丰富内涵的“质量绩效”概念来替代。绩效是一个管理学领域的概念,它表示经由一定的主观努力,获得的业绩和成果的意思,通常包含有“结果”“行为”“能力”三个层面的内涵；绩效评价的对象通常是哪些具有过程特性的实体,诸如：工作、行为、活动的主体,动态演进的系统等等。在铁路施工系统中,常见的绩效评价指标有质量、成本、进度、安全、环保等,而质量层面的绩效(简称质量绩效)就是施工系统中各种工作、行为、活动的主体在质量方面的努力获得的业绩和成果,这种业绩和成果既可以表现在过程质量绩效上,也可以表现在结果质量绩效上。而结果质量绩效既可以表现在工程的实体质量上,同时也可以表现在业主(客户)满意程度上。本文通过对铁路施工系统中影响结果质量绩效的动因要素进行深入研究,以BN方法构建动因要素和结果质量绩效间的路径模型,并借助BN的推理诊断工具实现了对铁路施工系统质量绩效的评价与诊断研究。具体地说,本文的研究主要包括以下内容：首先,对铁路施工系统进行解构分析,分别从经营与管理、过程与流程、资源与要素等不同层面探索铁路工程质量形成的一般机制和规律,并以企业能力理论、资源基础观理论、管理的流程学派理论、质量螺旋理论等为依据构建铁路施工系统质量绩效形成的P-R-M动因模型；应用探索性因子分析方法对P-R-M动因模型中的53个指标变量进行萃取分析,获得了11个质量绩效影响因子。应用多元回归分析方法找出质量绩效的直接影响因子,运用BN结构学习中基于条件独立性测试的PC算法,获得了11个影响因子和结果质量绩效之间的因果路径结构；应用贝叶斯估计方法进行BN模型的参数学习,从而获得了一个完整的BN模型；文章还应用路径分析方法对模型的结构有效性进行了检验。此外,本文还将该BN模型应用在铁路施工系统质量绩效评价、辅助工程质量预测、系统质量绩效问题诊断与追溯上,以实际案例说明了该BN模型所具有的三大功能及其具体应用操作。最后,本文还根据BN模型推理与诊断的结果,结合中国铁路施工领域质量管理的现状,分别从微观项目管理、中观业主治理、政府质量监督及国家法制等宏观层面探索了中国铁路施工系统质量绩效提升的对策和政策建议。本文的研究和其它现有的文献所不同的地方主要表现在：其一,目前国内相关的研究文献大多是以国外现成的TQM实践量表为基础或增加若干指标来构建所谓的系统质量绩效评价指标体系,本文则是从铁路施工系统结果质量绩效形成过程的角度,以“消费者棱镜”理论为指导,通过探索性因子分析得出11个质量绩效动因要素。其二,和其它常见的评价方法如：AHP层次分析法、BP神经网络分析法、SEM结构方程分析方法所不同,本文采用了BN结构学习的方法,开发出一套适合中国铁路施工系统的质量绩效评价模型；这种BN模型不仅具有系统质量绩效评价功能,更重要的是它还兼具辅助工程质量预测、系统质量绩效问题诊断与追溯功能；不仅能为决策者提供一般的质量绩效评价报告,同时还可以为决策者提供质量绩效诊断报告和改进建议书,具有很强的现实指导意义。
[Abstract]:Quality evaluation includes not only product quality evaluation but also process quality evaluation, but also the evaluation content of different levels of organizational system quality evaluation. Therefore, the quality evaluation must first clearly evaluate the object, no definite object quality evaluation is unintentional and invalid evaluation. Product quality evaluation is usually based on the quality evaluation. According to the quality acceptance criteria of the product, the evaluation of the quality of the organization system has not yet formed a good theory or practical practice. However, more and more people in the theoretical and industrial circles have begun to realize its importance. For example, in the "mass" concept proposed by Juran in the 90s of last century In addition, the research literature on the quality evaluation of the service system and the evaluation of the operation quality of the economic system began to increase slowly. At the same time, in the field of railway construction, there are many uncertainties and inaccuracies in the quality evaluation of the engineering products, so the quality evaluation of the railway construction system is studied. The price problem is particularly necessary, because the quality of the final product is determined by the quality of the construction system. Because the concept of "system quality" is relatively vague and lacks a clear and strict operation definition, this paper uses another concept of "quality performance" with rich and rich connotations in the study process. It is a concept in the field of management, which means the meaning of achievement and achievement obtained through a certain subjective effort, usually contains three levels of "result", "behavior" and "ability"; the object of performance evaluation is usually the entity with process characteristics, such as work, behavior, activity, and dynamic evolution. In the railway construction system, the common performance evaluation indexes are quality, cost, progress, safety, environmental protection and so on, and the performance of the quality level (quality performance) is the achievement and results obtained by all kinds of work, behavior, and the main body of the construction system in the quality of the construction system. The quality performance of the process can also be shown on the result quality performance. The result quality performance can be shown both in the physical quality of the project and in the satisfaction degree of the owner (customer). Through the in-depth study of the factors influencing the results quality performance of the railway construction system, this paper constructs the motivation of the BN method. The path model between the quality performance of the result and the result of the result is used to study the evaluation and diagnosis of the quality performance of the railway construction system with the help of BN's reasoning diagnostic tool. In particular, the research mainly includes the following contents: first, the railway construction system is deconstructed and analyzed from management and management, process and process, resources and requirements. The general mechanism and laws of the quality formation of railway engineering are explored in different levels, and the P-R-M motivation model for the formation of quality performance of railway construction system is built on the basis of enterprise capability theory, resource base theory, management process school theory and quality helix theory, and the exploration factor analysis method should be used in the P-R-M motivation model. 53 index variables are extracted and analyzed, and 11 quality performance factors are obtained. The multiple regression analysis method is used to find the direct influence factor of quality performance. By using the PC algorithm based on conditional independence test in BN structure learning, the causality path structure between 11 influence factors and the result quality performance is obtained. The parameter learning of BN model is studied by the estimation method, and a complete BN model is obtained. The paper also uses the path analysis method to test the structure effectiveness of the model. In addition, this paper also applies the BN model to the quality performance evaluation of railway construction system, the quality prediction of auxiliary process, the diagnosis and pursuit of the system quality performance problems. On the basis of the actual cases, the three functions and the specific application operations of the BN model are illustrated. Finally, according to the results of the reasoning and diagnosis of the BN model and the current situation of the quality management in the Chinese railway construction field, the macro level of the micro project management, the middle view owner management, the government quality supervision and the national legal system are explored respectively. The countermeasures and policy suggestions for improving the quality performance of China railway construction system. The research of this paper and the other existing documents are mainly manifested in the following aspects: first, most of the relevant domestic research literature is based on the foreign ready-made TQM practice scale or the increase of several indicators to construct the so-called system quality performance evaluation. The index system is based on the formation process of the quality performance of the railway construction system, guided by the theory of "consumer prism", and obtains 11 factors of quality performance by exploratory factor analysis. Secondly, and other common evaluation methods, such as AHP analytic hierarchy process, BP neural network analysis, and SEM structural equation analysis. The method is different. This paper adopts the method of BN structure learning to develop a set of quality performance evaluation model suitable for China railway construction system. This BN model not only has the function of system quality performance evaluation, but also has the function of auxiliary engineering quality prediction, system quality performance problem diagnosis and tracing. The policy makers provide the general quality performance evaluation report, and can also provide quality performance diagnosis report and improvement proposal for the decision-makers. It is of great practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U215.1

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