考虑碳排放因素的生物质发电项目选址研究

发布时间：2018-09-08 13:45

【摘要】：生物质秸秆发电技术是目前较为成熟也较为稳定可靠的一种新能源发电技术,该技术一直以低排放甚至零排放的环境效益而著称。根据对我国生物质发电项目的发展历史和现状的分析,我国生物质发电发展经历了研发和试验、快速发展和成熟三个阶段。在研发和试验阶段主要的研究和技术开发都集中在小型生物质气化发电技术上,而在快速发展阶段,我国生物质秸秆发电项目主要以直燃发电技术为主,由此可知我国生物质秸秆发电项目技术准备并不充足。在项目的区域分布上,我国农作物秸秆资源总量丰富,但是生物质秸秆发电项目在各个省区间的分布与秸秆资源的分布并不协调。在快速发展阶段,未经合理规划而盲目建设项目的问题日渐突出,部分区域内激烈的市场竞争使得当地秸秆价格虚高,影响了秸秆发电的经济效益。项目的布局不合理还会造成秸秆原料的收集困难,原料的半径超过了合理的收集半径,不仅降低了生物质发电项目的经济效益,还使得生物质秸秆原料的运输费用和运输过程中的碳排放总量增加。我国生物质秸秆发电项目的发展受到了诸多问题的阻碍,主要包括项目建设成本高、秸秆原料成本过高、运营和维护成本高、产能利用率低和电厂自用电率高等。通过溯源分析,本文推论出上述问题的根源主要在于生物质发电技术水平落后以及项目布局不合理。而生物质发电技术的选择也受到项目选址决策结果的影响,因此选址是生物质发电项目管理过程中所要解决的首要的和关键的问题。本文以生物质直燃发电项目的规划选址问题为研究对象,在保证项目经济效益的基础上,进一步考虑项目的碳排放情况。通过系统边界界定和系统分解,生物质秸秆直燃发电系统可以划分为秸秆收集和预处理子系统、秸秆运输和存储子系统、秸秆燃烧发电子系统和废弃物处理子系统四个部分。利用对各个子系统所涉及的生产活动的经济和碳排放行为分析,本文识别出了影响生物质发电项目经济效益和碳减排效益的因素。并对各个影响因素之间的关联性进行了分析。项目的区位选择是生物质发电项目选址过程中面临的首要问题,本文采用区位适宜度评价方法选择生物质发电项目建设运营最适宜区位。生物质发电项目经济效益和碳排放总量的影响因素分析为项目区位适宜度评价建立了评价指标选择集,结合现有对生物质发电项目评价研究中所采用的指标集合的分析,本文进一步分析了各评价指标的社会认可度,筛选出社会认可度较高的评价指标来构建生物质发电项目区域适宜度评价指标体系。考虑到生物质发电项目区位选择过程中各个区位及各个企业对项目经济效益和碳排放指标的偏好不同造成的生物质发电项目区位选择过程中指标权重存在一定的不确定性,本文利用情景分析的方法,设定了三种不同情景下各个指标的权重分配情况。对于生物质秸秆直燃发电项目的定址决策,本文在现有研究基础上建立了一个多目标混合整数规划模型。以生物质发电项目的经济效益最优和项目全生命周期碳排放总量最少为规划目标,通过系统分解分析过程中所得到的项目生产活动的经济投入和碳排放输出结果,构建相应的经济和碳排放总量计算公式。以生物质秸秆原料供应、原料的运输为主要约束条件。生物质发电项目运营过程中,各个区域所提供的生物质秸秆总量不能超过区域秸秆的实际可获得量,同时,在经济性和碳排放最少的原则下,各个区域运输至电厂的秸秆原料总量还不能超过电厂的原料需求总量。综合上述条件,本文建立了生物质发电项目的定址模型。针对上述区域适宜度评价和项目定址模型,本文利用实际案例对模型的应用条件进行了分析。根据案例分析的结果,碳排放因素对生物质发电项目区位选择和项目定址的结果均有一定的影响,碳排放指标的权重越大,评价结果与仅考虑经济效益等指标的评价结果的差异越大。同时,考虑了生物质发电项目碳排放因素影响的项目定址模型在其科学性和完整性上均比仅考虑经济效益的定址模型有所提高。
[Abstract]:Biomass straw power generation technology is a relatively mature and reliable new energy power generation technology, which has been known for its low emission and even zero emission environmental benefits. According to the analysis of the development history and status quo of biomass power generation projects in China, the development of biomass power generation in China has undergone research and development and testing, rapid development. There are three stages of development and maturity. In the R&D and experimental stages, the main research and technological development are focused on the small biomass gasification power generation technology. In the rapid development stage, the biomass straw power generation projects in China are mainly based on direct-fired power generation technology. Therefore, the technical preparation of biomass straw power generation projects in China is insufficient. In terms of regional distribution, the total amount of crop straw resources is abundant in China, but the distribution of biomass straw power generation projects in different provinces is not coordinated with the distribution of straw resources. The unreasonable layout of the project will also make it difficult to collect straw raw materials. The radius of the raw materials exceeds the reasonable collection radius, which not only reduces the economic benefits of the biomass power generation project, but also increases the transportation cost of the biomass straw raw materials and the total carbon emissions in the transportation process. The development of biomass straw power generation projects in China has been hindered by many problems, including high construction cost, high straw raw material cost, high operation and maintenance cost, low productivity utilization rate and high self-use rate of power plants. The selection of biomass power generation technology is also affected by the decision-making results of project site selection, so site selection is the primary and key problem to be solved in the process of project management of biomass power generation. The biomass straw direct-fired power generation system can be divided into four subsystems: straw collection and pretreatment subsystem, straw transportation and storage subsystem, straw combustion power generation subsystem and waste disposal subsystem. Based on the analysis of the economic and carbon emission behaviors involved in the production activities, this paper identifies the factors affecting the economic benefits and carbon emission reduction benefits of biomass power generation projects, and analyzes the correlation among the various factors. Location suitability evaluation method chooses the most suitable location for the construction and operation of biomass power generation projects. The analysis of the economic benefits and total carbon emissions of biomass power generation projects establishes an evaluation index selection set for the project location suitability evaluation, and combines with the analysis of the existing index set used in the evaluation research of biomass power generation projects. In this paper, the social acceptance of each evaluation index is further analyzed, and the evaluation index with higher social acceptance is selected to construct the regional suitability evaluation index system of biomass power generation project. There are some uncertainties in the index weight of biomass power generation project location selection. In this paper, the method of scenario analysis is used to set up the weight distribution of each index under three different scenarios. Standard Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model. Taking the optimal economic benefit of biomass power generation project and the minimum total carbon emission of the project life cycle as the planning objectives, the corresponding economic and carbon emission calculation formulas are constructed by the economic input and carbon emission output results of the project production activities obtained in the process of system decomposition analysis. During the operation of biomass power generation projects, the total amount of biomass straw provided by each region can not exceed the actual amount of straw available in the region. At the same time, the total amount of straw raw materials transported to power plants in each region can not exceed the actual amount of straw available in the principle of economy and carbon emissions at least. Based on the above-mentioned conditions, this paper establishes a biomass power generation project location model. In view of the above-mentioned regional suitability evaluation and project location model, this paper analyzes the application conditions of the model with practical cases. According to the results of case analysis, carbon emission factors on biomass power generation project location selection. The greater the weight of the carbon emission index, the greater the difference between the evaluation results and those only considering economic benefits. At the same time, the project location model considering the impact of carbon emission factors of biomass power generation projects is more scientific and integral than that only considering economic benefits. The site model has been improved.
【学位授予单位】：南京航空航天大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM619

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