牛背山隧道施工进度风险分析

发布时间：2018-12-11 08:52

【摘要】：本文依托牛背山隧道项目,将理论与实践相结合,采用层次分析法、灰色理论等方法对对牛背山隧道进行施工进度风险管理分析,对牛背山施工进度风险因素管理采用定性分析,定量计算相结合的办法,分析不利因素对项目计划目标的不良作用。针对工期受不确定性因素作用而很难掌控的问题给予科学地解决方法,从而能够采用更加通俗易懂、操作命令更加简捷的仿真分析方法,制定更合理、更可行的目标计划。本论文具体的研究意义如下:1.便于强化牛背山隧道工期风险管理;2.给决策者提供有效可信的施工进度管理依据;3.提高我国铁路隧道施工进度风险研究水平。笔者通过对牛背山隧道施工进度风险因素理论分析,量化模型构建,实例分析验证,将理论分析与实证分析相结合,证明了理论的可行性。因为无法准确判断施工进度风险发生的时间,发生的结果,发生的原因,发生的种类,所以往往很难进行直接计量。因此在施工进度风险评价时要进行定性和定量相互结合的研究分析方法。本文采用层次法分析、熵权法分析、灰色理论法分析以达到量化研究分析的结果,确定牛背山隧道施工进度风险因素的发生概率,并对其排序。对两种分析方法产生的结论进行对比,分析其中的差异,相互印证其结论的可靠性和准确性,最后选择了五个关键风险因素提出了具有针对性的风险规避措施以及风险防范措施,为项目管理单位提供了可靠的理论依据。本文的研究思路与内容如下:第一步,查阅施工进度风险分析的各类理论原理、研读国内外论文资料,研究成果,确定本次论文研究的理论模式,并为后文的实践案例分析奠定基础。第二步,实地调查牛背山项目实施情况,结合已有的理论研究筛选牛背上施工进度风险因素,确定清单列表,制定调查问卷。第三步,根据第一份调查问卷,结合1~9度指标制定第二份调查问卷,进行专家调查,通过客观现实判断,采用数学理论,采集数据,对各层次赋予定量指标。第四步,引用数学理论,分析数据模型,计算结果进行研究分析,得出结论构建施工进度风险分析量化模型并对其排序。方便管理者得到更加有效的信息,本章节还对六位专家进行并取长补短,采用群判法对多位专家的判断进行了综合排名,得出牛背山隧道施工进度风险因素综合排名顺序,方便专家为后期制定施工进度控制计划,实现施工进度目标。确定牛背山施工进度风险因素排序,最终综合确定排名前十的风险因素为:业主资金拨款的及时性,业主的管理能力,设计变更的频率,施工单位资金的使用管理,施工进度安排的合理性,施工单位的管理能力,项目总包管理人员的素质能力,监理单位的管理素质能力,地下水的影响,不良地质及软弱围岩。第五步,采用灰色理论,重新采集数据,验证牛背山隧道六位专家对牛背山项目风险评价的关联度、可信度。通过分析计算可以得出六位专家的判断关联度均在0.8以上,证明六位专家的主要观点一致,可信度较高。同时通过灰色关联理论得出各类风险相互间的联系度,根据各因素相互间关联度的大小顺序排列得到排名前十位风险因素,为后期制定施工进度风险预防措施,加强施工进度风险过程性管理控制给出了较为准确的数据凭证。分析排名前十的风险因素为:施工单位的管理能力,监理单位的管理素质能力,业主的管理能力,设计变更的频率,施工场地布置的影响,机械的故障率,机械的效率与性能情况,业主资金拨款的及时性,架子队人员的能力素质,施工标准化程度。第六步,针对分析结果,确定风险应对措施,主要措施有:业主进度风险控制,施工单位进度风险控制,监理单位进度风险控制,设计变更控制,牛背山隧道施工进度控制的经济措施。本文的研究结论有助于项目管理人员抓住项目实施过程中的主要矛盾,可以积极采取事情控制,做好预防措施,降低施工进度风险发生的概率,使牛背上隧道能够按时完工,创造良好的经济价值、社会价值虽然不同隧道项目的施工进度风险组成不同,但是都可以采用相同的分析模式,因此本文的研究方向具有一定的通用价值。本文的研究主要应用在项目施工前对风险事件进行事情控制,制定防范措施。随着项目建设的进行,各种事件的相互影响、干扰,风险因素的排序会不断发生变化,因此在后期需要不断的跟踪分析,建立信息化管理平台,完成动态跟踪模拟。
[Abstract]:Based on the project of the back mountain tunnel of the cattle, this paper combines the theory with the practice, and uses the method of the analytic hierarchy process and the grey theory to carry out the risk management analysis of the construction progress of the back mountain tunnel, and the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation on the management of the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain of the cattle is adopted. The adverse effects of adverse factors on the project planning target are analyzed. Aiming at the problem that the construction period is difficult to be controlled by the factors of uncertainty, the method can be scientifically solved, so that a more convenient and easy-to-understand and operation command can be adopted to simulate and analyze the method, and a more reasonable and more feasible target plan can be developed. The research significance of this thesis is as follows: 1. It is convenient for strengthening the construction period risk management of the back mountain tunnel of the cattle; Provide the decision-maker with an effective and credible construction progress management basis; 3. To improve the research level of the construction progress of railway tunnel in China. The author has proved the feasibility of the theory by combining the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis with the theoretical analysis, the quantitative model construction and the case analysis and verification of the construction progress risk factors of the back mountain tunnel. Because it is not possible to accurately judge the time of the construction progress risk, the result of the occurrence, the type of occurrence and the type of occurrence, it is often difficult to conduct direct measurement. Therefore, the qualitative and quantitative analysis and analysis method is to be carried out at the time of the construction progress risk evaluation. In this paper, by means of the analytic hierarchy, the entropy weight method and the grey theory method, the probability of the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain tunnel is determined and the order of the risk factors is determined. The results of the two analysis methods are compared, the difference is analyzed, the reliability and the accuracy of the conclusions are verified, the five key risk factors are selected, and the targeted risk avoidance measures and the risk prevention measures are selected. and provides a reliable theoretical basis for the project management unit. The research ideas and contents of this paper are as follows: first, refer to the various theoretical principles of the risk analysis of the construction progress, study the domestic and foreign papers and the research results, and determine the theoretical model of the thesis, and lay the foundation for the practice case analysis of the post-text. In the second step, on-site investigation of the implementation of the project on the back mountain of the cattle, combined with the existing theoretical research to screen the risk factors of the construction progress of the cow, determine the list of the list and formulate the questionnaire. In the third step, according to the first questionnaire, the second questionnaire is formulated in combination with the 1-9 degree index, and the expert investigation is carried out, and the quantitative indexes are given to each level through the objective reality judgment, the mathematical theory and the acquisition data. 4, referring to the mathematical theory, analyzing the data model, and carrying out research and analysis on the calculation result, and finally, the construction progress risk analysis quantitative model is constructed and the sequencing is carried out. It is convenient for managers to get more effective information. This section also makes a comprehensive ranking of six experts and makes a comprehensive ranking of the judgment of multi-level experts by using the group judgment method, so as to obtain the comprehensive evaluation sequence of the risk factors of the construction progress of the tunnel in the back mountain of the cattle. It is convenient for the expert to set up the construction progress control plan in the later stage and realize the construction progress target. It is determined that the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain of the cattle are sorted, and the risk factors of the top ten of the final comprehensive determination are as follows: the timeliness of the fund allocation of the owner, the management ability of the owner, the frequency of the design change, the utilization and management of the funds of the construction unit, and the rationality of the construction schedule, The management ability of the construction unit, the quality ability of the project general package management personnel, the management quality ability of the supervision unit, the influence of the groundwater, the bad geology and the weak surrounding rock. In the fifth step, the grey theory is adopted to re-acquire the data, and the degree and the reliability of the project risk evaluation of the cattle back mountain are verified by the six experts of the cattle back mountain tunnel. Through the analysis and calculation, it can be concluded that the judgment degree of six experts is more than 0.8, which proves that the main points of view of the six experts are consistent and the credibility is high. At the same time, the relation degree of all kinds of risks is obtained through the gray correlation theory, the top ten risk factors are obtained in order according to the size order of the degree of association among the factors, and the construction progress risk prevention measures are formulated in the later stage, The more accurate data voucher is given to strengthen the management control of the construction progress risk process. The risk factors of the top ten of the analysis are: the management ability of the construction unit, the management quality ability of the supervision unit, the management ability of the owner, the frequency of the design change, the influence of the layout of the construction site, the failure rate of the machine, the mechanical efficiency and the performance, the timeliness of the fund allocation of the owner, The ability and quality of the rack team and the degree of standardization of the construction. The sixth step is to determine the risk response measures for the analysis results. The main measures include the Owner's progress risk control, the construction unit's progress risk control, the supervision unit progress risk control, the design change control, and the economic measures for the construction progress control of the back mountain tunnel. The conclusions of this paper can help the project management personnel to grasp the main contradiction in the implementation of the project, can actively take the action control, do the preventive measures, reduce the probability of the risk of the construction progress, make the tunnel on the back of the cow be completed on time, and create good economic value, The social value is different from the construction progress risk of different tunnel projects, but the same analysis mode can be used, so the research direction of this paper has a certain general value. The main application of this paper is to control the risk events before the construction of the project, and to develop the preventive measures. With the construction of the project, the interaction, interference and risk factors of all kinds of events will change constantly. Therefore, the continuous tracking analysis is needed in the later stage, and the information management platform will be established to complete the dynamic tracking simulation.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U455.1

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