基于灰色关键链的项目进度管理研究
发布时间：2018-12-14 14:01
【摘要】：随着经济的发展,现代项目的市场竞争越来越激烈,项目的独特性、复杂性和不确定性都越来越大,因而若要使项目团队更具有竞争力,则需要项目管理能控制在更短的工期内以更低的成本完成更高质量的项目要求。其中,“更短的工期”就要求项目管理者做好项目的进度控制,而进度控制作为项目控制大三大要素之一,与成本和质量也是息息相关的。因而,制定一个全面的进度计划并对其进行进度监控,是实现项目总盈利的关键环节。关键链项目进度管理是一种将资源紧缺程度和工序先后顺序放在同等重要的位置考虑的进度管理方法,并且能考虑到人为因素的影响,吸收更多的项目不确定性。因其诸多方面的优越性,关键链管理法近年来受到企业和学术界的广泛关注,并得以成功应用在诸多实践中。本研究主要运用改进的灰色关键链的方法进行风险影响下的项目进度管理,解决在项目执行过程中产生的不确定性给项目实施带来的困难等问题,并对关键链进度计划中的关键链识别与缓冲设立,以及进度控制过程中的缓冲监控管理进行了进一步的研究：首先,本文在识别确认关键链阶段,将客观的灰色关联度分析法与偏向主观的层次分析法相结合,使得灰色关键链在确定中取得更切合实际的指标权重与理想对象；其次,针对现有关键链识别与缓冲区设立将各个工序考虑成相互独立无影响的弊端,提出了风险影响下的工序关联度这一指标,当项目遭遇到某种风险,考虑到受此风险影响的工序因其具有关联性将会产生连锁反应,使得缓冲区能够吸收更多的项目不确定性；最后,针对普遍使用的缓冲监控方法不能及时反映项目不确定性逐渐减小这一问题,提出了动态的缓冲监控模型。在动态缓冲监控过程中,管理者将动态地调整触发点,随着项目进展实时更新各个链路的缓冲大小,使得这个动态模型下的缓冲监控能发出更准确的、更符合实际情况的预警信号。并通过实例对比及仿真模拟证实本文所提关键链进度控制方法的优越性。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the market competition of modern project is becoming more and more fierce, the uniqueness, complexity and uncertainty of the project are increasing, so if the project team is to be more competitive, Project management is required to achieve higher quality project requirements at lower cost in a shorter time frame. Among them, "shorter duration" requires project managers to do a good job of project schedule control. As one of the three major elements of project control, schedule control is closely related to cost and quality. Therefore, it is the key to realize the total profit of the project to make a comprehensive progress plan and monitor its progress. The key chain project schedule management is a kind of schedule management method, which considers the degree of resource shortage and the sequence of working procedure in the same important position, and can take into account the influence of human factors and absorb more project uncertainty. Because of its advantages in many aspects, the key chain management method has been widely concerned by enterprises and academia in recent years, and has been successfully applied in many practices. This research mainly uses the improved grey key chain method to manage the project schedule under the influence of risk, and solves the difficulty of project implementation caused by the uncertainty in the process of project implementation. Furthermore, the key chain identification and buffer establishment in the key chain schedule and the buffer monitoring management in the progress control process are further studied. Firstly, this paper is in the phase of identifying and confirming the critical chain. Combining the objective grey correlation analysis method with the subjective analytic hierarchy process makes the grey key chain obtain more realistic index weight and ideal object in the determination; Secondly, aiming at the disadvantage of existing key chain identification and buffer zone setting, considering each process as independent and independent, this paper puts forward the index of process correlation degree under the influence of risk, when the project encounters some kind of risk, Considering that the processes affected by this risk will have a chain reaction because of their relevance, the buffer zone will be able to absorb more project uncertainty; Finally, a dynamic buffer monitoring model is proposed to solve the problem that the commonly used buffer monitoring method can not reflect the uncertainty of the project gradually. In the process of dynamic buffer monitoring, the manager will dynamically adjust the trigger point and update the buffer size of each link in real time as the project progresses, so that the buffer monitoring under this dynamic model can be issued more accurately. A more realistic warning signal. Through the comparison of examples and simulation, the superiority of the key chain schedule control method proposed in this paper is confirmed.
【学位授予单位】：北京化工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F272;N941.5
本文编号：2378729
[Abstract]:With the development of economy, the market competition of modern project is becoming more and more fierce, the uniqueness, complexity and uncertainty of the project are increasing, so if the project team is to be more competitive, Project management is required to achieve higher quality project requirements at lower cost in a shorter time frame. Among them, "shorter duration" requires project managers to do a good job of project schedule control. As one of the three major elements of project control, schedule control is closely related to cost and quality. Therefore, it is the key to realize the total profit of the project to make a comprehensive progress plan and monitor its progress. The key chain project schedule management is a kind of schedule management method, which considers the degree of resource shortage and the sequence of working procedure in the same important position, and can take into account the influence of human factors and absorb more project uncertainty. Because of its advantages in many aspects, the key chain management method has been widely concerned by enterprises and academia in recent years, and has been successfully applied in many practices. This research mainly uses the improved grey key chain method to manage the project schedule under the influence of risk, and solves the difficulty of project implementation caused by the uncertainty in the process of project implementation. Furthermore, the key chain identification and buffer establishment in the key chain schedule and the buffer monitoring management in the progress control process are further studied. Firstly, this paper is in the phase of identifying and confirming the critical chain. Combining the objective grey correlation analysis method with the subjective analytic hierarchy process makes the grey key chain obtain more realistic index weight and ideal object in the determination; Secondly, aiming at the disadvantage of existing key chain identification and buffer zone setting, considering each process as independent and independent, this paper puts forward the index of process correlation degree under the influence of risk, when the project encounters some kind of risk, Considering that the processes affected by this risk will have a chain reaction because of their relevance, the buffer zone will be able to absorb more project uncertainty; Finally, a dynamic buffer monitoring model is proposed to solve the problem that the commonly used buffer monitoring method can not reflect the uncertainty of the project gradually. In the process of dynamic buffer monitoring, the manager will dynamically adjust the trigger point and update the buffer size of each link in real time as the project progresses, so that the buffer monitoring under this dynamic model can be issued more accurately. A more realistic warning signal. Through the comparison of examples and simulation, the superiority of the key chain schedule control method proposed in this paper is confirmed.
【学位授予单位】：北京化工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F272;N941.5
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 张静文;胡信布;王茉琴;;关键链项目计划调度方法研究[J];科技管理研究;2008年03期
，本文编号：2378729
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