煤制油项目后评价体系的构建与应用研究

发布时间：2019-02-25 07:40

【摘要】：我国“富煤、贫油、少气”的能源格局,决定了煤炭在我国能源中占有不可替代的关键作用。随着经济的迅猛发展,对油气的消耗量逐渐增大,自给率无法满足需求,我国能源安全的不稳定因素在不断增加。作为石油的替代能源,我国的煤制油技术在不断发展完善,不少示范项目已经成功投产运营。项目后评价是对项目进行管理的重要手段。项目后评价通过总结分析项目的建设过程、技术水平和经济效益,完善项目管理,提高经济效益,保持项目的可持续发展。目前,很少有针对煤制油项目进行后评价的研究,尚未形成完整的煤制油项目后评价知识体系。因此,对煤制油项目后评价的理论、方法和应用展开深入研究,以期为煤制油项目的发展提出切实可行的对策,为未来可能实施的煤制油项目提供有益的借鉴。论文在介绍了项目后评价的发展过程和研究现状基础上,对项目后评价、管理创新和可持续发展等概念的相关理论进行了概述,并重点对煤制油项目进行了深入的分析。根据全面性、准确性、客观性、科学性等原则,结合煤制油项目的实际特点,建立了煤制油项目后评价的指标体系,确定了项目实施过程、项目技术、项目效益、项目管理创新和项目的影响与可持续性共5个一级指标,并精简细化为14个二级指标。为一定程度上解决一级指标因为领域的不同而较难比较的问题,从考虑专家意见的一致性角度出发,使用改进的熵权法对一级指标进行评价。二级指标的评价将改进的熵权法和层次分析法相结合,分别计算各个指标的权重,再根据权重差异程度进行组合赋权。运用模糊综合评价方法建立起煤制油项目后评价模型,得到最终的评价结果。最后,以伊泰集团鄂尔多斯16万吨煤制油示范项目为背景进行了案例分析,并对未来煤制油企业发展提出了建设性的建议,研究可为从事评价分析学者和煤制油企业管理者提供借鉴参考。
[Abstract]:The energy pattern of "rich in coal, lean oil and less gas" determines that coal plays an irreplaceable key role in China's energy resources. With the rapid development of economy, the consumption of oil and gas increases gradually, the self-sufficiency rate can not meet the demand, and the unstable factors of energy security in China are increasing. As the alternative energy of petroleum, the coal oil production technology in our country is developing continuously, and many demonstration projects have been put into operation successfully. Post-project evaluation is an important means of project management. By summarizing and analyzing the construction process, technical level and economic benefit of the project, the post evaluation of the project can improve the management of the project, improve the economic benefit and maintain the sustainable development of the project. At present, there are few researches on post-evaluation of coal-oil production projects, and a complete knowledge system of post-evaluation of coal-oil production projects has not been formed. Therefore, the theory, method and application of post-evaluation of coal-oil production project are deeply studied, in order to put forward practical countermeasures for the development of coal-oil production project, and to provide useful reference for the possible implementation of coal-oil production project in the future. Based on the introduction of the development process and research status of post-project evaluation, this paper summarizes the related theories of project post-evaluation, management innovation and sustainable development, and focuses on the in-depth analysis of coal-oil production projects. According to the principles of comprehensiveness, accuracy, objectivity and science, combined with the actual characteristics of coal oil production project, the index system of post-evaluation of coal oil production project is established, and the project implementation process, project technology and project benefit are determined. Project management innovation and impact and sustainability of the project total of 5 indicators, and streamlined into 14 secondary indicators. In order to solve the problem that the primary index is difficult to be compared because of the difference of the field, the improved entropy weight method is used to evaluate the primary index from the point of view of considering the consistency of the expert opinion. The evaluation of the secondary index combines the improved entropy weight method and the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weights of each index separately and then combine the weights according to the degree of weight difference. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to establish the post-evaluation model of coal oil production project, and the final evaluation results are obtained. Finally, based on the demonstration project of Erdos 160000 tons coal production, the paper makes a case study, and puts forward some constructive suggestions for the future development of coal oil production enterprises. The research can be used as a reference for evaluation and analysis scholars and managers of coal oil enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.22

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