基于Partnering模式的工程项目全寿命风险管理研究

发布时间：2019-03-23 20:41

【摘要】：随着经济全球化和科学技术的迅猛发展，建筑业的竞争日趋激烈，虽然目前我国建筑业的规模和水平得到了较大幅度的提升，但也暴露了一些弊病，如管理落后，信息流通缓慢，协作意识差等，因此，有必要采用一种新型的项目管理模式--Partnering（伙伴关系）模式，这种模式是20世纪90年代在欧美发达国家兴起的。由于这种模式需要相互信任，相互的坦诚合作，所以风险是非常大的，如果其中一方违背了整体的目标，那么整个项目很可能失败，因此，对其进行有效的风险管理研究至关重要。由于工程项目多种多样，分类较为繁多，所以本文将极具代表性的民用建筑工程项目作为主要研究对象来进行研究。本文的主要创新点为视角创新和内容创新，选取了一种国家倡导的新型的工程项目管理模式，从Partnering模式的工程项目实施的全寿命角度出发，对其进行了风险管理研究，构建了一个灰色多层次风险评估模型，并针对各阶段的风险提出了相应的应对策略。本文研究的主要内容有以下几个部分：第一部分为通过梳理大量的国内外文献，系统的阐述了Partnering模式的工程项目全寿命风险管理的相关理论，将Partnering模式的工程项目的全寿命期进行了界定，将其划分为决策阶段，实施阶段和竣工验收阶段；第二部分为Partnering模式的工程项目全寿命的风险识别和估计，运用德尔菲法、问卷调查法以及专家访谈法，识别出了各个阶段中存在的主要风险因素，并运用风险定性分析方法对识别出的风险因素进行概率与影响估计，将各风险因素进行了优先级排序；第三部分为Partnering模式的工程项目全寿命的风险评价，采用了风险定量的研究方法，灰色层次分析法，通过运用层次分析法以及灰色系统理论，，构建了一个灰色多层次风险评估模型；第四部分为针对各个阶段的风险提出了相应的应对措施；第五部分为Partnering模式的工程项目的具体实例，对其进行了全寿命风险识别，并对识别出的风险进行评价，最后针对风险高的提出了相应的应对措施。本文通过分析Partnering模式的工程项目不同阶段的风险因素，建立了一个灰色多层次风险评估模型，对以后应用Partnering模式的工程项目的风险评估，具有一定的实用和指导意义。
[Abstract]:With the economic globalization and the rapid development of science and technology, the competition of the construction industry is becoming more and more fierce. Although the scale and level of the construction industry in our country have been greatly improved at present, it has also exposed some disadvantages, such as the backward management. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt a new model of project management-Partnering (Partnership) model, which emerged in the developed countries of Europe and America in the 90's of the 20th century, because of the slow flow of information and the poor sense of cooperation. Since this model requires mutual trust and candid cooperation, the risk is very high, and if one of them goes against the overall goal, the entire project is likely to fail, so, It is very important to carry on the effective risk management research to it. Because of the variety and classification of the engineering project, this paper takes the representative civil construction project as the main research object. The main innovation point of this paper is the innovation of perspective and content, and a new project management mode advocated by the state is selected. From the point of view of the whole life of the project implementation of the Partnering model, the risk management research is carried out. In this paper, a grey multi-level risk assessment model is constructed, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward for each stage of risk assessment. The main contents of this paper are as follows: in the first part, through combing a large number of domestic and foreign literatures, this paper systematically expounds the relevant theories of life-span risk management of engineering projects based on Partnering model. The life-span period of Partnering-based engineering project is defined and divided into three stages: decision-making stage, implementation stage and completion acceptance stage. The second part is the risk identification and estimation of the life span of the engineering project based on Partnering model. Using Delphi method, questionnaire survey method and expert interview method, the main risk factors in each stage are identified, and the main risk factors in each stage are identified by using Delphi method, questionnaire survey method and expert interview method. Risk qualitative analysis method is used to estimate the probability and influence of the identified risk factors, and priority is given to each risk factor. The third part is the risk assessment of the life span of the engineering project based on Partnering mode, which adopts the quantitative research method of risk, the grey analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the theory of grey system by applying the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey system theory. A grey multi-level risk assessment model is constructed. The fourth part puts forward the corresponding countermeasures for the risk of each stage; The fifth part is the concrete example of the engineering project of Partnering mode, carries on the whole life risk identification to it, and carries on the appraisal to the identified risk, finally puts forward the corresponding countermeasure for the high risk. By analyzing the risk factors in different stages of engineering projects with Partnering model, this paper establishes a grey multi-level risk assessment model, which is of practical and instructive significance to the risk assessment of engineering projects with Partnering model in the future.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F272.3;F426.92

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