基于系统动力学的建筑工程项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2019-06-20 08:58

【摘要】：建筑工程项目在实际建设过程中会出现各种各样的风险,风险可能来自于不同的方面,如恶劣天气、政策变化、意外事故等,导致项目工期发生拖延、工程量增加等状况。管理者通过赶工措施以缓解进度压力,又会引起成本增加或质量的下降。因此对于建筑工程项目的管理者而言,对项目进行风险管理是项目管理的重要一环。现有建筑工程项目风险管理研究成果已为建筑工程项目风险的分析及控制做出不少贡献,但也存在一些问题。本研究运用系统动力学方法对建筑工程项目进行风险管理,构建项目风险系统模型,从整体、系统的角度考虑风险控制的最优策略。本研究以一般建筑工程项目为研究对象,依照风险管理的步骤:风险识别、风险评估、风险应对及监控,将整个建筑工程项目的执行过程抽象化。首先通过大量文献研究,对建筑工程项目风险管理及系统动力学的研究现状进行综述,并界定相关概念,阐述相关理论。其次,风险识别。基于文献研究、通过专家访谈方法初步识别建筑工程项目风险因素并对其归纳分类,形成建筑工程项目相关的目标维风险及因素维风险,目标维风险包括质量风险,工期风险和成本风险,因素维风险包括环境风险,资金风险,设计变更风险等,再通过系统动力学方法进一步识别目标维风险并构建系统动力学风险模型。再次,风险评估。在模型通过检验的基础上,利用昆山某名邸D地块项目的调查数据,对模型进行仿真,模拟评估了不同情形下因素维风险对于项目目标的影响程度。最后,风险应对及监控。基于系统动力学方法在建筑工程项目中的应用提出风险应对及控制的建议。本研究得出以下几点结论:(1)建筑工程项目在建设过程中识别的风险可归纳为目标维风险及因素维风险,风险之间并非互相独立,而是互相影响和作用。(2)因素维风险包括:管理者素质、人员风险、环境风险、组织风险、设计变更风险、资金风险、合同风险,分别对项目目标产生不同程度的影响。(3)通过对仿真结果的分析,基于系统动力学提出风险应对的策略。
[Abstract]:There will be a variety of risks in the actual construction process of construction projects, the risks may come from different aspects, such as bad weather, policy changes, accidents and so on, resulting in delays in the construction period of the project, the increase of project volume and so on. Management through rush measures to alleviate the pressure of progress, and will lead to increased costs or quality decline. Therefore, for the managers of construction projects, project risk management is an important part of project management. The existing research results of risk management of construction projects have made a lot of contributions to the risk analysis and control of construction projects, but there are also some problems. In this study, the system dynamics method is used to manage the risk of the construction project, and the project risk system model is constructed, and the optimal strategy of risk control is considered from the overall and systematic point of view. In this study, the general construction project is taken as the research object, according to the steps of risk management: risk identification, risk assessment, risk response and monitoring, the implementation process of the whole construction project is abstracted. Firstly, through a large number of literature research, the research status of risk management and system dynamics of construction project is reviewed, and the related concepts are defined and the related theories are expounded. Second, risk identification. Based on the literature research, the risk factors of construction project are preliminarily identified and classified by expert interview method, and the target dimension risk and factor dimension risk related to construction project are formed. The target dimension risk includes quality risk, duration risk and cost risk, because the risk includes environmental risk, capital risk, design change risk and so on. Then the target dimension risk is further identified by the system dynamics method and the system dynamics risk model is constructed. Third, risk assessment. Based on the test of the model, the model is simulated by using the survey data of the D plot project of a famous residence in Kunshan, and the influence of factor dimension risk on the project goal under different conditions is simulated and evaluated. Finally, risk response and monitoring. Based on the application of system dynamics method in construction projects, some suggestions on risk response and control are put forward. The conclusions of this study are as follows: (1) the risks identified in the construction process can be summarized as target dimension risk and factor dimension risk, and the risks are not independent of each other, but influence and function each other. (2) Factor dimension risks include: manager quality, personnel risk, environmental risk, organizational risk, design change risk, capital risk, contract risk, It has different effects on the project objectives. (3) through the analysis of the simulation results, the risk response strategy is proposed based on system dynamics.
【学位授予单位】：扬州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU71

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