中国地方政府债券融资发展前景研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 11:29

本文关键词：中国地方政府债券融资发展前景研究　出处：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着分税财政体制的不断完善和资本市场改革的深入发展,我国地方政府城市建设职能进一步加强,公开进行债券融资将成为地方政府必然的选择。2011年10月20日,我国财政部正式印发《2011年地方政府自行发债试点办法》,允许上海市、浙江省、广东省和深圳市开展地方政府自行发债试点。“自行发债”是带有探索性质的第一步,未来的发债趋势应该是地方政府“自主发债”,也就是地方政府主导进行债权融资。自主发债将会使地方政府的融资模式发生结构性的变化,从“间接融资”为主转为“直接融资”为主,有利于拓展融资渠道、提高地方政府市场化融资的能力,同时还能有效地缓解地方融资平台的偿债压力,促进地方经济增长。地方政府债券是一种监管更为严格、更为透明的融资模式,这一模式的推广能够丰富我国债券市场的产品种类,提高债券市场的深度和广度。地方政府债券融资模式中的核心问题是如何防范和控制风险,包括经济风险和社会政治风险。信用风险是最重要的一类经济风险,信用风险的控制和防范是经济风险管理的核心问题。本文综合使用ARMA模型和KMV模型对地方政府债券的信用风险进行定量分析,研究到期债务规模与理论预期违约概率和预期违约损失之间的对应关系。在实证研究部分,本文使用KMV模型来推定三个重点城市(广东省广州市、浙江省杭州市、江苏省苏州市)地方政府债券的安全到期债务规模和预期违约损失。债券风险的防范离不开制度建设,我们应该充分发挥市场监督和政府监管的作用。一方面,我们需要建立和完善地方债券风险的政府监管机制,降低债券的信用风险；另一方面,我们还需要建立和完善市场约束机制,建立包括信用评级、信息披露和债券保险“三位一体”的市场约束机制,从而有效的防范和控制地方政府债券融资的风险。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of the tax division financial system and the further development of capital market reform, the function of urban construction of local government in China has been further strengthened. Public bond financing will be an inevitable choice for local governments. On October 20th 2011, the Ministry of Finance officially issued the "2011 Local Government debt issuance pilot measures", allowing Shanghai. Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province and Shenzhen City have launched a pilot program for local governments to issue bonds on their own. "Self-issuance of bonds" is the first step with the nature of exploration, and the future trend of issuing bonds should be local governments "issuing bonds on their own." That is, the local government led the debt financing. The independent issuance of bonds will change the financing mode of local government, from indirect financing to direct financing, which will help to expand the financing channels. At the same time, it can effectively alleviate the debt service pressure of local financing platform and promote local economic growth. Local government bonds is a more strict regulation. More transparent financing mode, the promotion of this model can enrich the products of the bond market in China, and improve the depth and breadth of the bond market. The core problem of local government bond financing model is how to prevent and control risks, including economic risk and social political risk. Credit risk is the most important kind of economic risk. The control and prevention of credit risk is the core problem of economic risk management. This paper uses ARMA model and KMV model to analyze the credit risk of local government bonds. In the empirical research part, we use KMV model to estimate three key cities (Guangzhou, Guangdong Province). Hangzhou, Jiangsu Province) the size of local government bonds maturing safely and the expected loss of default. Bond risk prevention can not be separated from institutional construction, we should give full play to the role of market supervision and government supervision. On the one hand, we need to establish and improve the local bond risk regulatory mechanism. Reducing the credit risk of bonds; On the other hand, we also need to establish and improve the market constraint mechanism, including credit rating, information disclosure and bond insurance "trinity" market constraint mechanism. In order to effectively prevent and control the risk of local government bond financing.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F812.5;F224

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