关于2008年后境外战略投资者大规模减持中资银行股的原因研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 16:10

本文关键词：关于2008年后境外战略投资者大规模减持中资银行股的原因研究　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2001年我国正式加入世贸组织,由此开始,对外资银行的开放进入了实质发展阶段,而外资银行也正好看中了中国巨大的市场潜力和宽松的竞争环境。5年过渡期之后,为增强中资银行的竞争优势,我国银行业开始积极引入境外战略投资者,期望这些战略投资者能带着先进的经营理念、管理方式、多样化的产品等。而对于外资银行,由于我国资本项目管制尚未完全取消,开设网点的审批速度低于中资银行,一些监管措施出于安全原因限制了他们产品组合杠杆能力和全球专业优势,市场扩张方面将继续受到压制,比如在市场的准入方面和资金的来源方面远不能和中资银行匹敌。所以,作为进入中国市场的另一种形式,成为中资银行的股东显得再好不过了,如此一来,中资银行广泛分布的众多网点和遍布全国的广大客户群体正好可以成为外资银行推广其产品和服务的工具和对象,从而巧妙的绕过了我国对外资银行现有的业务限制,使其提前全面进入我国金融市场,为今后继续壮大打下基础。正是在这一背景下,外资银行开始大举参股中资银行,境外战略投资者的到来也使人们预见到中资银行即将在不久的将来不但能拥有世界性大银行的规模,更有世界性大银行的实力,这种双赢的美好预期一直延续到了2008年。随着2008全球金融危机的到来,这些境外战略投资者们纷纷大举抛售中资银行股票,一时间,似乎中资银行股从人人都要的香饽饽变成了烫手山芋。本文第一章是导论,对研究的背景和意义、文献综述、研究的问题、方法及框架、创新点与不足之处进行了阐述。第二章汇总了一些境外战略投资者当时影响力比较大的入股及抛售过程,通过理论研究探讨了它们的抛售原因可能有五个方面：资金困难、获利减持、战投抱负、看空业绩、纯属投机。第三章通过logit模型对所获数据进行实证分析,在分析、修正、再分析之后,认为中资银行的规模、总资产回报率、成本收入比、贷款率、人民币汇率,境外战略投资者的财务杠杆率、总资产回报率、现金流变化率以及入选全球系统重要性银行对引发抛售行为是显著的,并对实证结果与预期的差别进行了分析。第四章的结论中主要阐明了境外战略投资者的抛售行为主要源于两大因素：1、外部因素就是众所周知的全球性金融危机,导致战投们自身财务状况堪忧。2、内部原因则包括是中资银行的财务状况及境外战投在中资大银行无法满足他们当初的抱负。在启示部分则认为引入战略投资者并不是唯一的方法。
[Abstract]:In 2001, China formally joined the WTO, thus the opening to foreign banks entered the stage of substantial development. Foreign banks are also attracted to China's huge market potential and relaxed competitive environment. After five years of transitional period, in order to enhance the competitive advantage of Chinese banks, China's banking industry began to actively introduce foreign strategic investors. It is expected that these strategic investors will bring advanced management concepts, management methods, diversified products and so on. But for foreign banks, the capital account control has not been completely abolished. The pace of approvals for opening outlets is slower than for Chinese banks, and some regulatory measures limit their portfolio leverage and global expertise for security reasons, and market expansion will continue to be stifled. For example, in terms of market access and sources of capital, it is far from comparable with Chinese banks. So, as another form of entry into the Chinese market, it would be better to be a shareholder of Chinese banks. The wide distribution of Chinese banks and the vast number of customers all over the country can become the tools and objects for foreign banks to promote their products and services. Therefore, it cleverly bypasses the existing business restrictions of foreign banks in China, and makes them enter the financial market in advance, thus laying the foundation for further expansion. It is against this background that foreign banks begin to take large stakes in Chinese banks, and the arrival of foreign strategic investors makes people foresee that Chinese banks will not only have the scale of large banks in the world in the near future. With the strength of the world's largest banks, this good-win expectation lasted until 2008. With the global financial crisis of 2008, these foreign strategic investors have been selling shares of Chinese banks, and for a while, it seems that Chinese banks' shares have gone from the hot spot to the hot potato. The first chapter is an introduction to the background and significance of the research, literature review, research issues, methods and framework, innovation and shortcomings. The second chapter summarizes some foreign strategic investors at that time more influential stock and selling process, through theoretical research to explore the reasons for their selling may have five aspects: financial difficulties, profit reduction. War cast ambition, short performance, pure speculation. The third chapter through the logit model to the obtained data empirical analysis, after analysis, revision, re-analysis, think that the size of Chinese banks, total return on assets, cost-income ratio, loan ratio. The exchange rate of RMB, the financial leverage ratio of foreign strategic investors, the return on total assets, the change rate of cash flow and the selection of global systemically important banks were significant to trigger the sell-off. The difference between empirical results and expectations is analyzed. The conclusion of Chapter 4th mainly explains that the selling behavior of foreign strategic investors mainly comes from two major factors: 1, and the external factor is known as the global financial crisis. As a result of the war cast their own financial situation worrying. 2. Internal reasons include the financial position of Chinese banks and the inability of large foreign banks to meet their original ambitions. In the enlightening part, the introduction of strategic investors is not the only way.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51

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