中国化工上市公司财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 18:27

本文关键词：中国化工上市公司财务危机预警研究　出处：《北京化工大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文基于财务危机预警研究的理论与方法，首先从国内外对财务危机预警研究的理论研究与模型研究进行了文献介绍，并在这些研究的基础上结合中国的实际情况进行了评价；其次，在查阅了大量相关文献的基础上，以我国化工上市公司的年报财务数据为依托，运用了PEST理论分析法和Logistic回归模型；最后，运用财务数据对我国化工上市公司进行了理论分析和实证分析，得出了处于健康的公司与危机的公司分类并检验了模型的准确性，提出了针对化工上市公司，如何规避财务风险的建议和措施，并在文章最后提出了我国化工上市公司财务危机预警的最后结论。本文对沪深A股的上市公司进行样本筛选，，取221家公司2009年至2011年的年报数据作文本文的实证样本，首先以企业财务比率为基础数据，运用因子分析法对其进行降维处理，通过相关性原则，得到7个主因子，它们具有较高解释性和较高相关性。代入SPSS，进入Logistic回归，并将选好的检验样本代入模型检验；运用PEST分析法对企业周遭的环境进行分析说明并得出企业规避风险的措施。最终实证结果表明：Logistic回归分析法对化工上市公司的财务危机有良好的预警作用，通过理论与实证分析的相互结合，获得了很好的预测效果，有助于增强公司的风险管理意识，有助于投资者进行理性投资，有助于决策者做出正确决策。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the theory and method of the research on financial crisis early warning based on, first from the domestic and foreign research on theory and model study of financial crisis early warning research were introduced, and combined with the actual situation of Chinese was evaluated on the basis of the above research; secondly, in the basis of a large amount of relevant literature, the annual financial data China's chemical industry listed companies as the basis, using the PEST theory analysis method and Logistic regression model; finally, using financial data for the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of China's Listed Companies in the chemical industry, the company and the health crisis's classification and test the accuracy of the model, is proposed for the chemical listed company, suggestions and measures on how to avoid financial risks, and finally put forward a final conclusion of the financial crisis early warning of China's chemical listed companies.
This paper listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares of the sample selection, sample composition and the empirical data in the annual reports of 221 companies from 2009 to 2011, based on the business financial ratios as the basic data, using the factor analysis method to reduce the dimension, the correlation principle, 7 main factors were obtained, which have higher explanation and high correlation. Enter into SPSS, Logistic regression, and the test sample into the model test selected; using PEST analysis method of enterprise environment analysis and the measures to avoid risks. The empirical results show that: Logistic regression analysis of the financial crisis on the chemical listed company method has good effect by early warning. The combination of theoretical and empirical analysis, obtained very good prediction effect, helps to enhance the company's risk management awareness, help rational investors to invest in, It helps the decision-makers make the right decisions.

【学位授予单位】：北京化工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F406.72;F426.7;F832.51

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