基于集对分析法的郑州城区供水安全评价

发布时间：2018-01-08 19:16

本文关键词：基于集对分析法的郑州城区供水安全评价　出处：《郑州大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：水是城市的命脉,是人类社会发展的物质基础。近年来,城市化步伐显著加快,居民对城市用水质量提出了更高的要求,如果城市供水格局未及时跟上水资源需求,城市的发展建设就难以保障,城市供水安全已成为影响城市现代化建设和居民生活品质的重要因素。目前,关于区域水安全研究较多、对城市供水安全研究较少,定性描述较多、定量描述较少,因此对城市供水安全评价显得尤为重要。本研究将从城市供水系统的安全入手,研究城市供水流程,在分析郑州市供水现状的基础上,构建了完善的城市供水指标体系,采用集对分析法(SPA)构建综合评价模型,定量评价供水安全。以郑州市城区为研究目标,对郑州市城区2006-2014年的供水系统进行评价,选择较为成熟的物元分析法进行结果对比分析,并对城市规划中的2020年的供水系统安全等级进行预测评价,提出相关改进措施和建议,为郑州市供水安全研究提供参考。(1)分析郑州市城区供水现存问题。根据郑州市供水相关统计资料、经济社会发展现状和趋势等,分析了供水系统中存在一些问题与不足:地表水衰减,对外调水依赖性较大;地下水超采,可能会造成一连串的生态和环境问题;城市工业废水和生活污水的排放量日益增多,可能会造成水源污染的现象。(2)郑州市供水安全评价模型的构建及其求解。基于郑州市供水现状和主要供水环节,选择水源、净水、输水和用水四个环节作为指标体系的准则层,初步选择27个指标,通过主成分分析(PCA)和相关性分析进行指标的筛选,最终确定出14个可以反映郑州市供水安全的指标,构建评价指标体系,通过Statistical Product and Service Solutions(SPSS)软件,计算各评价指标的权重,基于联系数的集对分析(SPA)评价模型计算,确定郑州市供水安全评价等级。(3)郑州市供水安全评价结果的分析。通过集对分析评价模型计算表明,根据综合联系数对应的安全等级,2006-2014年郑州市城区供水安全等级呈现逐渐上升的趋势,2006-2008安全等级为Ⅳ级,2009-2013年安全等级上升到Ⅲ级,2014年的综合联系数为0.1719,安全等级达到Ⅱ级,处于较为安全的等级,选取物元分析法进行对照,评价结果与集对分析法基本相同,验证该模型的实用性和可行性。同时,对规划年2020年进行指标预测和等级评价,结果表明,2020年综合联系数为0.5320,供水安全等级为Ⅰ级,属于非常安全等级,准则层中供水水源安全等级为Ⅱ级,其它均为Ⅰ级,由于南水北调、引黄等工程的投入使用,管网配套设施和节水设施的日益完善,水厂规模扩大、处理效率提高等,在整体上提高了郑州市城区供水安全水平,也验证了评价结果的合理性。(4)根据供水安全评价结果,提出了相应的改进措施和建议。供水水源准则层的安全等级在2006-2014年在Ⅲ~Ⅳ级间波动,预测2020年达到Ⅱ级,其中人均水资源量和水功能区达标率指标多年处于Ⅴ级,应加快邙山提灌站供水工程、牛口峪引黄工程等工程的建设,开辟新的水源,增加供水能力,并保证水质安全;净水工程准则层的安全等级在2006-2014年逐渐上升,供水产销差率指标安全等级偏低,应对水厂进行及时扩建和改造,推广中水回用;输水管网准则层的安全等级2006年为Ⅳ级,2014年为Ⅱ级,应积极完善管网布局,及时更换老旧管网,增加供水管网设施建设;用户用水准则层的安全等级在2006-2009年均处于Ⅴ级,之后安全等级有所提高,为满足用户用水需求,应加强总量控制与定额管理,加快水厂和节水工程的建设,充分调动居民的节水意识,引导居民节约用水。
[Abstract]:Water is the lifeline of the city, is the material basis for the development of human society. In recent years, the pace of city residents accelerated significantly, put forward higher requirements on the quality of city water, city water supply pattern if not timely with the water resources demand, the development of the city construction is difficult to guarantee the safety of water supply, the city has become an important factor affecting the city modernization the construction and living quality. At present, there are more studies on regional water security, the less of city safety water supply, more qualitative description, quantitative description of city water supply is less, so the safety evaluation is particularly important. This study will start from the city water supply system security, research on city water supply process, based on the analysis of the present situation of water supply in Zhengzhou city on the construction of the city water supply to improve the index system, using set pair analysis method (SPA) to construct the comprehensive evaluation model, quantitative evaluation of water supply safety in Zhengzhou city. District as the research object, to evaluate the water supply system for 2006-2014 years in Zhengzhou City, choose the more mature method of matter element analysis the results of comparative analysis, and water supply system security level of city planning in the 2020 forecast evaluation, puts forward relevant improvement measures and suggestions, provide a reference for the safety of water supply in Zhengzhou city. (1) analysis of the existing problems of urban water supply in Zhengzhou city. According to the relevant statistical data of water supply in Zhengzhou City, the economic and social development situation and trend analysis of water supply system, there are some problems and shortcomings: surface water attenuation, export water dependent greatly; the over exploitation of groundwater, may cause a series of ecological and environmental problems; industrial city waste water and sewage emissions increasing may cause water pollution phenomenon. (2) and for building water safety evaluation model of Zhengzhou city. Based on the water supply in Zhengzhou City The present situation and the main water supply link, choose water, water, water and water in four aspects as the criterion layer index system, the preliminary selection of 27 indicators, using principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation analysis of selecting indicators, determined 14 can reflect the Zhengzhou city water supply safety index, evaluation index system Product and Service, by Statistical Solutions (SPSS) software, the weight calculation of the evaluation index, analysis of connection number based on set (SPA) evaluation model, evaluation of water supply safety level of Zhengzhou city. (3) the results of analysis and evaluation of water security in Zhengzhou city. Through the set pair analysis and evaluation model calculation shows that, according to the safety the general level connection number corresponding to the 2006-2014 safety level of urban water supply in Zhengzhou city showed a gradual upward trend, the security level for the 2006-2008 grade, 2009-2013 security level rise to grade 2014. The number of years of comprehensive contact 0.1719, security level to level II, in a relatively safe level, select the matter-element analysis method were compared, and the evaluation results of set pair analysis method is basically the same, verify the feasibility and practicability of the model. At the same time, the index forecast and evaluation of planning in 2020. The results showed that 2020 comprehensive contact number is 0.5320, the water supply security level to the first level, which belongs to the very level of security, water supply security level in criterion layer to the second level, the other was grade I, due to water diversion, diversion project put into use, pipe network facilities and water saving facilities, water scale, treatment to improve the efficiency, improve the safety level of urban water supply in Zhengzhou city as a whole, also verified the rationality of the evaluation result. (4) according to the water safety evaluation results, propose appropriate measures and suggestions. Water supply standards The security level in 2006-2014 grade fluctuations, forecast in 2020 to grade II, the per capita water resources and water function zones compliance rate index in years of V-grade, should speed up the construction of Mangshan pumping station water supply project, Niukouyu diversion project and other projects to open up new sources of water, increase water supply capacity and, to ensure water quality and safety; safety grade water purification engineering criteria layer increased gradually in 2006-2014 years, water sales slip index security level is low, with water timely expansion and renovation, promotion of water reuse; water pipe network security rating criteria layer IV in 2006, 2014 to the second level, should actively improve the network layout the replacement of the old pipe network, timely, increase water supply pipeline facilities construction; water users the criterion level of security level in annual 2006-2009 at V-grade, after the security level was improved, to meet user demand, should be strengthened Total quantity control and quota management, speed up the construction of water works and water saving projects, fully mobilize the consciousness of water saving for the residents, and guide the residents to save water.

【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU991

【参考文献】