基于案例推理技术的暂列金额确定研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 06:41

本文关键词： 暂列金额案例推理技术不完全合同风险分担　出处：《天津理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：暂列金额是发包人的风险备用金,其设置的目标是实现建设项目竣工结算价接近或等于签约合同价,从而确保建设项目投资控制的高效实施。合理的暂列金额设置,既能够应对突发事件情形下的资金链断裂,也能够实现发包人整体项目投资的时间价值。然而,暂列金额作为项目投资的隐性控制环节,尚未引起实践共鸣。暂列金额的界定模糊是导致上述问题的根本原因,该“原因”可追溯至暂列金额确定的科学方法缺失。基于此,本研究通过剖析传统确定方法的局限性,改进性的引入案例推理技术作为暂列金额确定方法。通过准确模拟暂列金额确定的情境因素、构建项目暂列金额案例库,基于案例推理技术,完成合适的案例检索、案例调整等推理环节,实现暂列金额的合理预测。具体研究内容包括暂列金额确定的案例表示分析、暂列金额的案例检索与调整分析。研究内容一:暂列金额确定的案例表示分析。该研究内容的解决路径为通过信息沉淀法,从两个层面进行指标要素的提取,形成初始影响因子集;通过可行性分析,利用专家访谈法选取时间可行、技术可行及功能可行的可行性因子集作为最终的影响因子集。根据影响因子集作为案例表示中的案例特征表示,依据整理的67个实际项目案例,配合案例的基本描述及结果描述共同构成整个案例库的构建。研究内容二:暂列金额确定的案例检索与调整分析。该研究内容的解决路径为案例检索采用混合检索策略,首先对案例库进行归纳检索,通过筛选与目标案例相同的专业及结构类型的案例作为潜在的经验案例库,其次对影响指标的量化,通过最近相邻检索方法测算目标案例与案例库各源案例之间的相似度。通过设置相似度的阈值,求出目标案例的充分相似案例或最小相似案例。若存在最小相似案例,则需对相似案例进行案例调整,单案例调整按照指标的权重进行调整,多案例的调整按照各个案例的相似度加权平均得出调整解。通过实例验证,得出案例推理技术可以准确确定暂列金额。本研究创新性的将案例推理技术与工程项目管理领域的投资控制问题进行匹配,为项目暂列金额设置的合理性与科学性作出研究补足,为工程实践人员的风险控制提供“预测”依据。
[Abstract]:The provisional amount is the risk money of the contractor, the goal of which is to achieve the completion of the construction project close to or equal to the contract price. In order to ensure the efficient implementation of construction project investment control. Reasonable provisional amount setting can not only deal with the breakage of the capital chain in the case of unexpected events but also realize the time value of the overall project investment of the contractor. However. As a tacit control link of project investment, the provisional amount has not yet aroused practical resonance. The ambiguity of the definition of provisional amount is the root cause of the above problems. This "cause" can be traced back to the lack of scientific methods for determining provisional amounts. Based on this, this study analyzes the limitations of traditional methods of determination. The improved Case-Based reasoning (CBR) technology is introduced as the method of determining the provisional amount. Through the accurate simulation of the situational factors of the temporary amount, the case base of the project provisional amount is constructed, and the case-based reasoning technology is used. Complete the appropriate case retrieval, case adjustment and other reasoning links to achieve a reasonable forecast of the provisional amount. The specific content of the study includes the case representation analysis of the determination of the provisional amount. Case Retrieval and Adjustment Analysis of Provisional amounts. Research content 1: case representation analysis of provisional amount determination. The solution of this study is to extract the index elements from two levels through the method of information precipitation. Forming the initial influence factor set; Through feasibility analysis, the use of expert interviews to select time is feasible. Technical and functional feasibility factor set as the final impact factor set. According to the impact factor set as the case representation of the case feature representation, according to collated 67 actual project cases. The basic description and the result description of the case together constitute the construction of the whole case base. Case retrieval and adjustment analysis for the determination of provisional amount of money. The solution of this study is a mixed retrieval strategy for case retrieval. First of all, the case base is summarized and retrieved, and the cases of the same professional and structural types as the target cases are selected as the potential experience case base. Secondly, the quantification of the impact indicators is given. The similarity between the target case and the source case is measured by the nearest neighbor retrieval method. The threshold of similarity is set by setting the threshold of similarity. If there is a minimum similar case, we need to adjust the case of the similar case, and the adjustment of the single case according to the weight of the index. The adjustment of multiple cases is based on the weighted average of the similarity of each case. It is concluded that the case-based reasoning technology can accurately determine the provisional amount. This study innovatively matches the Case-based reasoning technology with the investment control problem in the field of project management. This paper studies and complements the rationality and scientificalness of setting the provisional amount of the project, and provides the basis of forecast for the risk control of engineering practitioners.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU723.3

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