分布式城市需水预测模型

发布时间：2018-01-28 08:27

本文关键词： 分布式城市需水预测模型城市建设用地土地利用单元 PEST 需水强度　出处：《科学通报》2017年24期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：城市需水过程和城市土地利用单元的类型密切相关,不同建设用地类型对水资源的需求强度具有显著差异.本研究基于8类城市建设用地与3类主要城市需水过程的空间关系建立了分布式城市需水预测模型.以厦门市为对象进行模型的应用研究,通过PEST软件(parameter estimation)率定了建设用地单元上的需水参数,分析了参数的合理性,预测了厦门市2020年城市的需水总量及其空间分布.结果表明厦门市2020年的城市需水总量将达到36657万吨,比2014年增长24.17%;居民用地和工业用地的需水强度大于其他建设用地类型,厦门岛内居民用地的需水强度远大于厦门市其他行政区居民用地的需水强度.厦门市城市建成区需水量的空间分布与人口密度具有很好的相关性,不同用地类型上需水强度差异明显.
[Abstract]:The process of urban water demand is closely related to the types of urban land use units. There are significant differences in the demand intensity of water resources among different types of land for construction. Based on the spatial relationship between 8 types of urban construction land and the process of water demand of three major cities, a distributed model of urban water demand prediction is established. The application of the model is studied. The water demand parameters on the construction land unit are determined by the PEST parameter estimation rate, and the rationality of the parameters is analyzed. The total water demand of Xiamen city in 2020 and its spatial distribution are forecasted. The results show that the total water demand of Xiamen city on 2020 will reach 366.57 million tons, which is 24.17% more than 2014. The water demand intensity of residential land and industrial land is higher than that of other construction land types. The water demand intensity of residential land in Xiamen Island is much higher than that of other administrative districts in Xiamen. The spatial distribution of water demand in urban built-up areas of Xiamen has a good correlation with population density. There are obvious differences in water demand intensity among different land types.
【作者单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室;水利部水资源与水生态工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金委员会优秀青年科学基金(51522907);国家自然科学基金(51279208)资助
【分类号】：TU991.31
【正文快照】： 城市需水量预测在城市供排水系统规划及城市综合发展规划中具有重要意义[1].城市需水量的预测受到诸多不确定性因素的影响[2],根据不同的预测模型得到的预测结果相差较大.目前,国内常用的需水预测方法较多[3],主要可以分为水量指标法、概率统计法及系统工程模型等方法,其中系

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