岩土热响应试验不确定性研究及敏感性分析

发布时间：2018-03-26 15:12

本文选题：热响应试验　切入点：参数评估　出处：《天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：针对岩土热响应试验数据处理中的不确定性问题,开发了柱热源传热模型数值反演解与信赖域反射优化算法相结合的地下岩土热物性参数估计程序.该程序能够有效地避免求解过程陷入局部最优解,并为后续不确定性研究提供底层模型.对地埋管进出水温度、热传输功率、地下原始温度等模型输入参数的不确定性通过查阅文献、理论思考和基于专业经验的假设进行合理量化,采用Monte Carlo方法进行模拟,将热响应试验的模型输入参数不确定性传播到输出参数评估结果中,得到了地下岩土导热系数与钻孔热阻之间的二元联合分布,并使用Copula函数进行复现.最后对传热模型中影响温度输出的可变参数进行Lasso敏感性分析,证明导热系数与热阻的影响最大.
[Abstract]:Aiming at the uncertainty problem in the data processing of geotechnical thermal response test, A program for estimating the thermal properties of underground rock and soil is developed, which combines the numerical inversion of the heat transfer model of the column heat source with the trust region reflection optimization algorithm. The program can effectively avoid falling into the local optimal solution. And provide the bottom model for the following uncertainty research. The uncertainty of the input parameters of the model such as the temperature of the underground pipe inlet and outlet water, heat transfer power, underground original temperature and so on is studied by consulting the literature. The theoretical thinking and the hypothesis based on professional experience are reasonably quantified, and the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the model input parameter uncertainty of the thermal response test, and the uncertainty of the model input parameter is propagated to the output parameter evaluation result. The binary joint distribution between the thermal conductivity of underground rock and soil and the thermal resistance of borehole is obtained and reproduced by Copula function. Finally, Lasso sensitivity analysis of the variable parameters affecting the temperature output in the heat transfer model is carried out. It is proved that the influence of thermal conductivity and thermal resistance is the greatest.
【作者单位】：哈尔滨工业大学市政环境工程学院;香港理工大学屋宇设备工程学系;
【基金】：黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(E201435) 香港理工大学研究委员会资助项目(G-UA28)~~
【分类号】：TU83

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