基于风险因素自相关性的施工进度风险分析研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 14:19

本文选题：进度风险　切入点：风险分析　出处：《南昌航空大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：进度作为工程项目管理的三大目标之一,是项目管理的重要内容。工程施工环境的开放性和复杂性,使得项目实施过程中常常受到外界不确定因素的干扰,从而导致施工进度拖延。因此,对影响施工进度的风险因素进行分析显得尤为重要。传统的进度风险分析方法并没有全面分析风险因素之间的相关性,导致项目施工进度计划的实施偏离目标。决策与试验评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法运用图论与矩阵论原理对系统因素进行分析,在社会学、经济学和生态学等领域有效地量化了风险因素之间的相关性,因此,将DEMATEL方法引入到工程领域具有重要的探索价值。本文在研究施工进度风险分析领域现状的基础上,从风险分析的源头出发,以风险因素为研究对象,建立工程项目工序工期仿真模型,并使用JAVA语言进行编程模拟。通过对风险因素相关性理论的深入分析,引入DEMATEL方法并考虑了风险因素的自相关性,在风险因素综合影响矩阵的基础上增加单位矩阵进行改进,利用随机数发生器模拟风险因素的发生概率,通过与预期相比得到风险因素的状态,采用层次分析法量化风险因素对工序工期的影响程度,从而模拟整个工程项目的总工期,并分析进度计划关键线路的分布概率和影响工程项目进度的关键风险因素,从而有效地控制施工进度。为了研究风险因素自相关性对工程项目进度的影响,本文通过某厂房案例,应用工序工期仿真模型,对进度风险因素进行分析。案例分析结果表明,本文提出的工序工期仿真模型不仅得到工程项目的总工期分布,其计算结果与实际总工期比较接近,也可以得到进度计划关键线路分布概率和关键风险因素,证实了基于风险因素自相关性的分析方法的有效性。本文的研究结果为项目管理者提供了一个较好的预测工程项目总工期的计算模型,为不同风险倾向的项目管理者估计项目完工时间提供了依据,帮助项目管理者制定灵活的进度管理方案和更具针对性的风险应对措施,从而确保进度计划的有效实施。
[Abstract]:Progress, as one of the three major objectives of project management, is an important part of project management. The openness and complexity of the construction environment make the implementation of the project often subject to outside uncertainties. Therefore, it is very important to analyze the risk factors that affect the progress of construction. Decision-making and test evaluation laboratory DEMATELL used graph theory and matrix theory to analyze system factors in sociology. The correlation between risk factors is effectively quantified in the fields of economics and ecology. Therefore, it is of great value to introduce the DEMATEL method into the field of engineering. Starting from the source of risk analysis, taking risk factors as the research object, the simulation model of project working procedure duration is established, and the programming simulation is carried out by using JAVA language. The DEMATEL method is introduced and the autocorrelation of risk factors is considered. The unit matrix is added on the basis of the comprehensive influence matrix of risk factors, and the probability of risk factors is simulated by random number generator. The state of risk factors is obtained by comparing with expected, and the influence of risk factors on process duration is quantified by analytic hierarchy process (AHP), so as to simulate the total construction period of the whole project. In order to study the influence of self-correlation of risk factors on project schedule, the distribution probability of key routes and the key risk factors affecting the progress of construction project are analyzed in order to control the construction schedule effectively. In this paper, the risk factors of schedule are analyzed by using the simulation model of working procedure duration in a workshop case. The result of case analysis shows that the simulation model of working procedure duration not only gets the distribution of total project duration, The calculated results are close to the actual total duration, and the distribution probability and the key risk factors of the key routes in the progress plan can also be obtained. The results of this paper provide a good calculation model for project managers to predict the total project duration. It provides a basis for the project managers with different risk propensity to estimate the project completion time, and helps the project managers to formulate flexible schedule management schemes and more targeted risk response measures to ensure the effective implementation of the schedule plan.
【学位授予单位】：南昌航空大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU722

【参考文献】