认知资源对公众城市气象灾害防御支付意愿的影响研究——基于南京市暴雨灾害防御的实证

发布时间：2018-04-16 23:34

本文选题：成本分担 + 公众参与　；参考：《长江流域资源与环境》2017年11期

【摘要】：城市气象灾害防御措施的改进是防灾减灾的有效手段,但如何在辨识公众支付意愿的基础上,构建多方成本分担的灾害防御制度是解决问题的关键。从成本分担的视角出发,以南京暴雨灾害防御为例,分析公众对增强型城市气象灾害防御的支付意愿及认知资源在其中的重要作用。通过构建由Probit模型和有序Probit模型组成的递归混合模型,探讨认知资源和经济资源在公众支付决策中的重要性。研究表明:认知资源的作用十分明显,且随着公众对暴雨灾害风险感知、防御措施了解程度、防御制度认可程度的提高,公众支付意愿越强。而暴雨灾害风险感知又受到灾害趋势认知和经历的共同影响,这两个变量分别影响风险感知的广度和深度,但受教育程度对风险感知深度的影响并不显著。核心建议是从满足公众对城市暴雨灾害风险、防御措施、灾害趋势等知识的需求,政府应该加强暴雨灾害科普宣传的主动性、提升主管和协同部门的公信力;规范科普知识内容、拓宽科普渠道。
[Abstract]:The improvement of urban meteorological disaster prevention measures is an effective means of disaster prevention and mitigation, but how to establish a multi-cost sharing disaster defense system is the key to solve the problem on the basis of identifying the public's willingness to pay.From the perspective of cost sharing, taking Nanjing rainstorm disaster prevention as an example, this paper analyzes the public's willingness to pay for the enhanced urban meteorological disaster defense and the important role of cognitive resources in it.By constructing a recursive hybrid model composed of Probit model and ordered Probit model, the importance of cognitive and economic resources in public payment decision-making is discussed.The research shows that the role of cognitive resources is very obvious, and with the public perception of rainstorm disaster risk, the degree of understanding of defense measures, the degree of recognition of defense system, the stronger the public willingness to pay.The risk perception of rainstorm disaster is influenced by the cognition and experience of disaster trend. These two variables affect the breadth and depth of risk perception respectively, but the influence of education level on the depth of risk perception is not significant.The core suggestion is to meet the public's need for knowledge of urban rainstorm disaster risk, prevention measures, disaster trend and so on, the government should strengthen the initiative of popularizing science of rainstorm disaster, and enhance the credibility of supervisor and cooperative department.Standardize the knowledge content of science popularization and broaden the channels of science popularization.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;南京信息工程大学中国制造业发展研究院;
【基金】：中国气象软科学自主资助项目([2016]M32号) 国家自然科学基金(71603129,71373131,71303123);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目(91546117) 国家社科重大项目(16ZDA047) 中国制造业发展研究院开放课题(SK20170090-25,SK2016009011)~~
【分类号】：P429;TU992.02

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