廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目的风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-04-25 07:34

本文选题：项目风险管理 + 结构方程模型　；参考：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：为满足我国经济、社会、环境可持续发展对电力输配的要求,近年来,我国开始加快电网的建设改造步伐,尤其是配网节能改造。配网节能改造项目往往具有投资规模大、建设周期长以及技术要求高等特征,并且受外部经济环境和自然条件影响很大,导致项目存在较大风险。当前,我国项目风险管理管理机制还不完善,配网节能改造项目的风险识别与评价难度较大;因此,研究配网节能改造项目风险管理对有效控制电网建设风险具有重要实践意义。为此,本文以廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目的风险管理为研究对象,研究探索项目风险管理在我国配网节能改造项目中的应用和发展。本文回顾总结了国内外项目风险管理研究的最新动态和成果,从项目风险识别、评价以及应对与监控三个层面解构了项目风险管理理论体系。在此基础上,以廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目为例,研究了实际配网节能改造项目中的风险管理问题。首先,从项目的外部环境、业主、承包和监理四个维度识别分析了项目风险因素,从项目决策、准备、施工和运营四个阶段对项目面临的风险进行了识别分析;其次,基于结构方程模型理论方法,分别构建了项目风险因素影响评价模型和项目风险评价模型;然后,通过项目数据调研,分别对廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目的风险因素影响情况和项目不同阶段风险分布进行了科学评价,并基于风险因素影响情况及不同阶段的项目风险解析了廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目风险决策;最后,基于项目风险因素影响情况和项目风险分布的评价结果分析,给出了廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目风险应对策略与措施,并制定了项目风险监控流程及措施。基于上述研究,本文运用结构方程模型理论构建得出了项目风险因素影响评价模型和项目风险评价模型,并对廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目的风险因素影响情况及项目不同阶段的风险进行了科学评价。研究发现:(1)廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目通过节能效益分享型合同能源管理模式组织实施,业主(即供电公司)能够将项目风险转移给承担单位(即节能服务公司),并依靠节能服务公司在配网节能改造项目中的资金、技术及管理优势,从而有效的规避项目风险。(2)在该实施模式下,项目承包风险因素和项目监理风险因素对项目影响较大,需要重点监控相关风险因素,减小由此带来的项目风险。(3)在廊坊供电公司配网节能改造项目全过程中,项目风险呈现先增大后减小的趋势,且在项目施工阶段风险达到最大;因此,在项目风险管理中,需要对项目施工阶段的风险进行重点监控。
[Abstract]:In order to meet the requirements of sustainable development of economy, society and environment in China, in recent years, China has begun to speed up the pace of power grid construction and transformation, especially the energy-saving transformation of distribution network. Distribution network energy-saving reconstruction projects are often characterized by large scale of investment, long construction cycle and high technical requirements, and are greatly affected by the external economic environment and natural conditions, resulting in a large risk of the project. At present, the management mechanism of project risk management in our country is not perfect, so it is difficult to identify and evaluate the risk of energy-saving transformation project of distribution network. It is of great practical significance to study the risk management of distribution network energy saving reconstruction project for effectively controlling the power network construction risk. Therefore, this paper studies the application and development of the project risk management in the distribution network energy-saving transformation project of Langfang Power supply Company. This paper reviews and summarizes the latest developments and achievements of research on project risk management at home and abroad, and deconstructs the theoretical system of project risk management from three aspects: project risk identification, evaluation and response and monitoring. On this basis, the risk management problems in the actual distribution network energy saving renovation project are studied with the example of the distribution network energy saving renovation project of Langfang Power supply Company. Firstly, the risk factors of the project are identified and analyzed from the four dimensions of external environment, owner, contract and supervision, and the risk of the project is identified and analyzed from the four stages of project decision, preparation, construction and operation. Based on the theory and method of structural equation model, the impact evaluation model of project risk factors and project risk evaluation model are constructed, and then, through the research of project data, The influence of risk factors and risk distribution in different stages of the distribution network energy saving renovation project in Langfang Power supply Company are evaluated scientifically. And based on the risk factors and different stages of the project risk analysis Langfang power supply company distribution network energy-saving transformation project risk decision-making; finally, based on the project risk factors and project risk distribution evaluation results analysis, The strategies and measures of energy saving transformation project of distribution network in Langfang Power supply Company are given, and the project risk monitoring flow and measures are established. Based on the above research, this paper constructs the project risk factor impact evaluation model and the project risk evaluation model by using the structural equation model theory. The influence of risk factors on distribution network energy saving renovation project of Langfang Power supply Company and the risk of different stages of the project are evaluated scientifically. The research found that the energy saving renovation project of distribution network of Langfang Power supply Company was organized and implemented through the energy-saving benefit sharing contract energy management model. The owner (that is, the power supply company) can transfer the project risk to the undertaking unit (that is, the energy-saving service company), and rely on the capital, technology and management advantages of the energy-saving service company in the distribution network energy-saving transformation project, In this implementation mode, the project contract risk factors and project supervision risk factors have a great impact on the project, so it is necessary to focus on monitoring the relevant risk factors. In the whole process of energy saving transformation project of distribution network of Langfang power supply company, the risk of the project increases first and then decreases, and the risk reaches the maximum in the project construction phase; therefore, in the project risk management, It is necessary to focus on the risk monitoring during the construction phase of the project.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F426.61;TU71

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