扩展潜力—生态约束协调的城市开发边界划定方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 09:00

本文选题：城市开发边界 + 城市建设用地扩展潜力　；参考：《南京大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国快速的城市化进程令世界瞩目,城市建设用地的空间扩展已成为我国土地利用变化的主导特征。同时,伴随而来的是耕地安全面临威胁、生态环境受到干扰、以及城市空间结构松散低效等制约城市健康发展的问题。从国际经验来看,城市开发边界作为城市空间增长管理的政策工具,对于缓解经济发展需求和自然资源约束之间的尖锐矛盾有着重要而积极的作用。而我国的宏观政策层面,如《国家新型城镇化规划(2014-2020年)》等,也将城市空间增长管理方式指向加强对城市空间扩张的规模控制和有序引导,强调了划定城市开发边界的重要性。在此背景下,如何协调土地开发与资源保护矛盾,科学合理地划定城市开发边界,成为关系未来城市可持续健康发展的重大挑战。目前,城市开发边界划定方法主要围绕城市扩展空间预测与生态安全格局划定研究展开,实现了城市扩展规模的有效控制和区域生态本底的相对保留。然而,当前研究尚未考虑人类活动空间分布对塑造城市空间形态的影响。因此,论文选择城市空间增长潜力显著、生态资源制约作用明显并且保护需求突出的长沙市中心城区作为研究区,从统筹协调"城市内部扩展潜力"与"外部生态约束"的视角出发,融合表征人类活动空间分布的多源时空大数据,集成地理空间分析、地理评价技术、Logistic回归、元胞自动机等模型方法,构建了城市建设用地扩展潜力评价模型,提出了生态用地重要性指数计算方法,设计并实现了基于区域生态特性评价分级的城市空间演变过程模拟模型——EI-CA模型,开展了城市开发边界划定方法研究,并对研究提出的划定方法的科学性和有效性进行评价分析。主要研究内容与结论如下:(1)城市建设用地扩展潜力评价。城市的空间扩展方向与其内部动力因素息息相关,通过城市建设用地扩展潜力评价可以反映城市空间扩展规律。然而,如何有效地把握影响城市建设用地扩展的内部动力因素,是城市建设用地扩展潜力评价的关键问题。论文从人口、经济、区位、基础设施布局四个方面出发,应用夜间灯光遥感影像、微博签到点等多源时空大数据构建了城市建设用地扩展潜力评价体系;基于Logistic回归模型,实现了对城市建设用地扩展潜力的表达。结果表明,经济变化、人口活动分布、距主干道距离和常住人口密度因子对城市建设用地扩展解释率最高,并且,城市建设用地扩展潜力存在显著的空间分异。(2)生态用地重要性评价。生态用地作为建设用地扩展的潜在供给土地,理应成为城市空间增长管理的重点研究区域。对此,论文从"生态系统服务功能"和"生态需求强度"角度出发,集成USLE、InVEST和HSI模型,设计了生态用地重要性(EI)指数计算方法。研究发现,生态用地重要性指数最高的区域包括提供重要生态系统服务功能(生物多样性维持功能、土壤保持功能、固碳功能)的森林公园、湿地公园、生态公益林,以及满足高强度生态需求的林地、水体等零散生态斑块;重要性指数相对低的生态用地则为分布在郊区的农田、草地。(3)城市开发边界划定。根据统筹"城市内部扩展潜力"和"外部生态约束"的设计思想,针对如何协调建设开发与生态保护之间冲突的城市空间增长管理难题,论文基于城市建设用地扩展潜力评价及生态用地重要性评价结果,构建了 EI-CA模型,实现了不宜建设开发空间的评价和在适宜区域内的城市建设用地扩展模拟,据此划定了城市开发边界。通过对划定结果的评价分析可知,"扩展潜力-生态约束"协调下划定的城市开发边界不仅符合研究区空间发展形态,对于未来的建设用地扩展方向预测合理;而且避免了侵占重要生态资源,引导城市在适宜区域扩展,达到了兼顾城市空间发展和生态资源保护的多重目的。
[Abstract]:The rapid urbanization process in China attracts the world's attention. The spatial expansion of urban construction land has become the dominant feature of the change of land use in China. At the same time, the problems associated with the threat of cultivated land security, the disturbance of the ecological environment and the loose and low efficiency of urban space are the problems of the healthy development of the cities. As a policy tool for urban space growth management, the urban development boundary plays an important and active role in alleviating the sharp contradiction between the demand for economic development and the constraints of natural resources. In China, the macro policy level, such as the national new urbanization plan (2014-2020 years), also points to the strengthening of the urban spatial growth management mode. The scale control and orderly guidance of urban space expansion emphasizes the importance of delimiting the boundary of urban development. In this context, how to coordinate the contradiction between land development and resource protection, scientifically and rationally delineate the urban development boundary, become a major challenge to the sustainable and healthy development of the city in the future. We should focus on the study of urban expansion space prediction and ecological security pattern, and realize the effective control of the scale of urban expansion and the relative reservation of regional ecological background. However, the current research has not taken into account the influence of spatial distribution of human activities on the shape of urban space. Therefore, the paper chooses the potential of urban space growth to be significant. As a research area, the central urban area of Changsha, which has obvious constraints of state resources and the protection of demand, is taken as a study area. From the perspective of coordinating "the expansion potential of the city" and "external ecological constraints", the multi source and spatio-temporal data representing the spatial distribution of human activities are integrated, and the integrated spatial analysis, geographical evaluation, Logistic regression, and cell are integrated. The evaluation model of urban construction land expansion potential is constructed, and the calculation method of ecological land importance index is proposed. The simulation model of urban spatial evolution process based on the evaluation and classification of regional ecological characteristics - EI-CA model is designed and realized, and the research on the boundary delimiting method for urban development is carried out, and the research is put forward. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) the expansion potential evaluation of urban construction land. The spatial expansion direction of the city is closely related to its internal dynamic factors, and the expansion potential evaluation of urban construction land can reflect the law of urban space expansion. However, how to be effective To grasp the internal dynamic factors affecting the expansion of urban construction land is the key problem for the evaluation of the expansion potential of urban construction land. From four aspects of population, economy, location and infrastructure layout, this paper constructs the evaluation of the expansion potential of urban construction land using night light remote sensing images, micro-blog sign to point and so on. Based on the Logistic regression model, the expression of the expansion potential of urban construction land is realized. The results show that the economic change, the distribution of population activities, the distance from the main trunk road and the density factor of the resident population have the highest interpretation rate to the urban construction land expansion, and there are significant spatial differences in the expansion potential of urban construction land. (2) ecological land Importance evaluation. Ecological land as the potential supply of land for expansion of construction land should be the key area of urban space growth management. From the perspective of "ecosystem service function" and "ecological demand intensity", the paper integrates the USLE, InVEST and HSI models, and designs the calculation method of ecological land importance (EI) index. It is found that the areas with the highest importance index of ecological land use include the Forest Park, wetland park, ecological forest, and sportwater, water and other ecological patches that provide important ecosystem service functions (biological diversity maintenance function, soil retention function, carbon sequestration), and water body and other ecological patches to meet the high ecological needs. The state land is distributed in the suburb farmland, the grassland. (3) the urban development boundary is delimited. According to the design idea of "the expansion potential of the city" and "the external ecological constraint", the paper aims at how to coordinate the problem of urban space growth management in the conflict between the construction and development and the ecological protection. The paper is based on the evaluation and birth of the expansion potential of the urban construction land. The EI-CA model is constructed, the evaluation of the unsuitable development space and the expansion simulation of urban construction land in the suitable area are realized. According to this, the urban development boundary is delimited. By the evaluation analysis of the delimited results, it is known that the urban development boundary delimited under the coordination of "extended potential constraint" is not only the symbol of the urban development boundary. The space development form in the study area is reasonable for the future construction land expansion direction, and avoids the occupation of important ecological resources, guides the city to expand in the suitable region, and achieves the multiple purposes of taking into account the development of urban space and the protection of ecological resources.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU984.113

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