房地产项目建设成本风险分析与决策研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 20:46

本文选题：建设成本风险 + 风险识别　；参考：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：针对我国房地产项目中建设成本风险问题,本文着重研究了一种符合我国房地产行业建设成本风险分析与决策的方法,该方法主要针对我国大中型房地产开发项目,用于对项目建设期内的成本风险做出分析和决策。该方法的研究主要包含以下三个方面:分析房地产开发过程中的建设成本风险、基于概率分析法建立风险评估模型、天津生态城世茂新城项目实例分析。具体内容如下:首先,查阅了房地产建设方面相关的资料,梳理出我国房地产开发的具体流程,从每一个具体的流程中分析出建设成本风险,再从控制成本风险的发生的角度,得出成本管理的方法,研究成本管理的基本程序,将成本管理方法与房地产开发的每一个环节对应起来,控制每一个环节的成本风险,确保项目成本满足预先设定的条件。然后,使用定性分析和定量分析方法对房地产项目开发生命周期内的建设成本风险做出全面研究,依据前面对房地产开发具体环节的梳理,利用本文提出的风险识别方法,对房地产开发生命周期内的潜藏风险进行识别。结合以往的常用的风险分析方法和评估方,本文提出了改进的分析方法和评价方法,并将识别出的风险进行分析,找出这些风险的类别和特点,针对这些类别和特点进行评价,得出风险可能带来的后果,并提出了风险控制的相关理论和防控措施。根据识别出的风险,使用概率分析的方法,对风险进行评价,建立单因素风险分析模型和综合风险因素分析模型,并结合@risk风险分析软件,对房地产开发过程中的风险进行模拟分析。最后,本文针对天津市生态城世茂新城项目进行实例分析,从世茂新城项目的成本费用中识别出潜藏的风险因素,应用本文建立的概率分析模型对项目中识别出的风险进行分析,并使用@risk风险分析软件对各风险进行模拟,得出在风险因素下的概率分布抽样过程图和费用累计曲线图;结合模型分析的结果,给出个风险因素的应对措施。
[Abstract]:In view of the problem of construction cost risk in real estate projects in China, this paper focuses on a method of risk analysis and decision making in line with the construction cost of real estate industry in China, which is mainly aimed at large and medium-sized real estate development projects in China. It is used to analyze and make decision on the cost risk during the construction period of the project. The research of this method mainly includes the following three aspects: analyzing the construction cost risk in the process of real estate development, establishing the risk assessment model based on the probability analysis method, and analyzing the example of the Shimao New Town Project in Tianjin Ecological City. The specific contents are as follows: first of all, we have consulted the relevant information on real estate construction, sorted out the specific process of real estate development in China, analyzed the construction cost risk from each specific process, and then from the point of view of controlling the cost risk, The method of cost management is obtained, the basic procedure of cost management is studied, the cost management method is corresponding to every link of real estate development, the cost risk of each link is controlled, and the project cost meets the pre-set conditions. Then, using the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method to make a comprehensive study on the construction cost risk in the life cycle of the real estate project development, according to the combing of the specific links of the real estate development, using the risk identification method proposed in this paper. Identify the potential risks in the life cycle of real estate development. Combining with the usual risk analysis methods and evaluation methods, this paper puts forward the improved analysis method and evaluation method, analyzes the identified risks, finds out the types and characteristics of these risks, and evaluates the types and characteristics of these risks. The possible consequences of risk are obtained, and the relevant theory and preventive measures of risk control are put forward. According to the identified risk, using the method of probability analysis, this paper evaluates the risk, establishes a single factor risk analysis model and a comprehensive risk factor analysis model, and combines with the @ risk analysis software. The risk in the process of real estate development is simulated and analyzed. Finally, this paper analyzes the example of Shimao Xincheng Project in Tianjin Eco-city, and identifies the hidden risk factors from the cost of Shimao Xincheng Project. Using the probabilistic analysis model established in this paper to analyze the risk identified in the project, and using the risk analysis software of @ risk to simulate each risk, the sampling process diagram of probability distribution and the cumulative cost curve under the risk factors are obtained. Combined with the results of the model analysis, a risk factor countermeasures are given.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU723.3

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