国际工程项目风险可拓评价及应对策略选择研究

发布时间：2018-05-19 04:32

本文选题：国际工程项目 + 风险关联　；参考：《河北工程大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着“走出去”步伐的加快,中国与世界其他国家的关系变得越来越密切,国际工程项目已经成为中国进行国际经济与技术合作的重要组成部分。与一般传统的国内工程项目相比,国际工程项目风险之间存在着更强的关联性,选择的应对策略是否合适对项目的影响更大。因而,要加强对国际工程项目的风险管理,在对国际工程项目的风险进行评价以及选择风险应对策略时要重视风险关联,并且在应对策略选择时要采用更加量化的方法,这样才能够帮助国内承包商更好地进行风险管理,保证项目顺利进行,最终达到项目的预期目标。本文从国内承包商视角,基于可拓理论中的发散分析原理,立足于国际工程项目的各个阶段,识别出国际工程项目的风险因素;选用考虑风险关联的可拓评价法对识别出来的风险因素进行有效的评价,得出各层级风险因素所处的风险等级;针对评价结果中等级较高的风险因素,根据风险之间的双风险关联的特点,估计出风险发生的概率及风险损失的大小,有针对性地对每种风险提出预防、适应和组合这三种风险应对策略,通过建立决策模型来选择最优的风险应对策略。通过对A项目进行风险评价得到:环境风险和工程缺陷风险因素的风险等级为较高,要加以重视,项目整体风险等级为一般。评价结果与实际相符,验证了可拓评价的可行性。对等级较高的两种风险提出风险应对策略,通过输入决策模型得到:通过采取组合策略可将两种风险的风险概率降低且花费的成本小于该项目可以承担风险成本最小值,故所选择的应对策略最优且决策模型是有效的,该模型可为今后的国际工程项目应对策略选择提供决策支持。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of "going out", the relationship between China and other countries in the world has become more and more close, and international engineering projects have become an important part of China's international economic and technical cooperation. Compared with the traditional domestic engineering projects, there is a stronger correlation between the risks of international engineering projects, and the impact of the appropriate coping strategies on the projects is greater. Therefore, to strengthen the risk management of international engineering projects, to evaluate the risks of international engineering projects and to select risk coping strategies, we should pay attention to risk correlation, and adopt more quantitative methods in the choice of coping strategies. Only in this way can the domestic contractor better carry out the risk management, ensure the project to proceed smoothly, and finally achieve the expected goal of the project. Based on the divergence analysis principle of extension theory, this paper identifies the risk factors of international engineering projects from the perspective of domestic contractors, based on the various stages of international engineering projects. The extension evaluation method considering risk correlation is selected to evaluate the identified risk factors effectively, and the risk grade of each level risk factor is obtained, aiming at the higher grade risk factors in the evaluation results. According to the characteristics of double risk correlation between risks, the probability of risk occurrence and the magnitude of risk loss are estimated, and three risk coping strategies, namely, prevention, adaptation and combination, are proposed for each risk. A decision model is established to select the optimal risk response strategy. Through the risk evaluation of project A, it is concluded that the risk grade of environmental risk and engineering defect risk factor is higher, we should pay attention to it, and the overall risk grade of the project is general. The evaluation results are in agreement with the practice, and the feasibility of extension evaluation is verified. A risk response strategy is proposed for two kinds of high grade risks, which is obtained by input decision model: the risk probability of the two risks can be reduced by adopting the combination strategy and the cost of the project is less than the minimum value of the project's risk cost. Therefore, the optimal coping strategy is chosen and the decision model is effective. The model can provide decision support for the international project response strategy selection in the future.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU71

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