基于二次重现期的城市两级排涝标准衔接的设计暴雨

发布时间：2018-06-11 14:59

本文选题：设计暴雨 + 极值Copula　；参考：《水科学进展》2017年03期

【摘要】：使用珠海市1984—2015年R_(1h)-R_(6h)、R_(1h)-R_(12h)、R_(1h)-R_(24h)3个历时暴雨组合推算排水排涝两级标准衔接的设计暴雨水平。应用阿基米德极值Copula与Kendall分布函数构建不同历时暴雨组合的联合概率分布模式。分析各历时暴雨组合的遭遇概率、"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期,以出现最大可能概率的方法推算各组合的设计暴雨值。结果表明:二次重现期所对应的累积频率更准确地代表了特定设计频率情况下不同历时暴雨组合的风险率;重现期分别为2年、3年、5年、10年、20年、50年、100年推算的二次重现期设计值介于"或"重现期和"且"重现期设计值之间,小于相应的边缘分布重现期设计值,R_(1h)-R_(6h)组合推算的设计值相对误差为3.1%~7.1%;R_(1h)-R_(12h)组合推算的设计值相对误差为3.3%~9.3%;R_(1h)-R_(24h)组合推算的设计值相对误差为3.9%~12.0%。二次重现期推算的不同历时暴雨组合的设计暴雨分位值为内涝工程的风险管理和管渠尺寸提供了优选标准和设计参考。
[Abstract]:In Zhuhai, from 1984 to 2015, the design rainstorm level of two standard contiguous levels of drainage and drainage was calculated by using the combination of three periods of heavy rain, namely, 1 h-1 / 1 / 12 / 1 / 1 / 12 / h) of three combined rainstorms in Zhuhai for the purpose of calculating the design rainstorm level of the two levels of contiguous design of drainage and waterlogging. The Archimedes extreme Copula and Kendall distribution function are used to construct the joint probability distribution model of different duration rainstorm combinations. This paper analyzes the encounter probability, "or" recurrence period "and" secondary recurrence period "of each diachronic rainstorm combination, and calculates the design rainstorm value of each combination by the method of maximum possible probability. The results show that the cumulative frequency corresponding to the secondary recurrence period represents more accurately the risk rate of different duration rainstorm combinations under specific design frequencies. The design values of the second recurrence period, which were calculated to be 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 50 years and 100 years, respectively, were between the design values of "or" recurrence period and "recurrence period". The relative error of the design value of the combination reckoning is 3.1 / 7.1h / s / 12h). The relative error of the design value of the combined calculation is 3.39.3U / R / L / 1h-R24h). The relative error of the design value of the combination is 3.9 / 12.0 / r / h, and the relative error of the design value of the combined calculation is 3.9 / 12.0 / h / h, and the relative error of the design value of the combined calculation is 3.39.3h-R24h. The design of different duration rainstorm combinations calculated in the secondary recurrence period provides the optimal selection standard and design reference for the risk management and pipe and canal size of waterlogging engineering.
【作者单位】：中山大学水资源与环境系;珠江水利科学研究院;珠海市公共气象服务中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41371498)~~
【分类号】：TU992

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