沈阳世茂五里河深基坑项目风险预测与应对研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 13:41

本文选题：深基坑项目 + 监测数据　；参考：《长春工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：深基坑项目实施及使用过程中,其风险因素具有复杂而多变的特性,任何一个环节出现了问题,都可以使项目出现风险。如何能在深基坑项目的各个阶段对这些风险因素进行分析并给出准确的评价及有效的应对措施,从而达到对深基坑项目的风险实施有效的控制,减少基坑事故的发生,一直是近年来专家学者们所关注得焦点。目前常用的深基坑项目风险评价方法,大多是应用专家经验或调查方法进行定性分析的基础上,结合一定的定量方法,给出项目风险级别。上述研究方法一方面存在着一定的主观不确定性,另一方面无法实现深基坑项目远期风险预测研究。因此,其对项目风险有效控制作用有一定的限制。经大量的实际基坑事故调查和数据分析表明,基坑的监测数据可以有效地预测事故,对事故的发生有一定的预防作用。因此,如何应用深基坑项目的现场监测数据进行风险预测评价,给出有效的风险应对是一个值得我们的关注的研究课题。本文以沈阳世茂五里河深基坑项目为例,结合大量深基坑项目工程实例的统计数据及研究成果,对基于现场监测数据的深基坑项目风险预测方法及应对措施等问题进行了系统的研究。论文主要内容及结论如下:(1)对深基坑项目特点、风险管理的过程进行了简单阐述;对深基坑项目风险识别、风险评价的常用方法进行了总结、归纳;对沈阳世茂五里河深基坑项目采用的风险评价方法进行了介绍。(2)建立了基于监测指标的深基坑项目风险预测评价体系,以现行国家规范累积报警值作为危险状态的控制标准,建立了基于监测指标的安全分级标准,为深基坑项目风险评价奠定了理论基础。(3)基于深基坑监测项目的灰色性,选用灰色预测模型对监测数据进行预测,灰色关联分析法确定各监测项目的权重,在基于监测指标的深基坑项目风险预测评价体系的基础上对沈阳世茂五里河深基坑项目进行风险预测评价。(4)依据沈阳世茂五里河深基坑项目实测及预测风险值,分析了每项监测项目的所呈现异常时所表现的安全状态以及引发异常的可能风险源,结合单个监测项目风险值确实风险决策,提出了有效的风险应对措施。
[Abstract]:In the process of implementation and use of deep foundation pit project, its risk factors have complex and changeable characteristics. Any problem in any link can make the project appear risk. How to analyze these risk factors in each stage of deep foundation pit project and give the accurate evaluation and effective countermeasures, so as to effectively control the risk of deep foundation pit project and reduce the occurrence of foundation pit accident. In recent years, experts and scholars have been the focus of attention. At present, most of the risk assessment methods used in deep foundation pit project are based on the qualitative analysis of expert experience or investigation method, combined with a certain quantitative method, the project risk level is given. On the one hand, there are some subjective uncertainties in the above research methods, on the other hand, it is impossible to carry out the long-term risk prediction research of deep foundation pit project. Therefore, it has some limitations on the effective control of project risk. A large number of actual foundation pit accident investigation and data analysis show that the foundation pit monitoring data can effectively predict the accident, and has a certain preventive effect on the occurrence of the accident. Therefore, how to use the field monitoring data of deep foundation pit project to predict and evaluate the risk and how to deal with the risk effectively is a research topic worthy of our attention. This paper takes the deep foundation pit project of Shimao Wuli River in Shenyang as an example, combining with the statistical data and research results of a large number of deep foundation pit project examples. The risk prediction methods and countermeasures of deep foundation pit project based on field monitoring data are systematically studied. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) the characteristics of deep foundation pit project, the process of risk management, the common methods of risk identification and risk evaluation of deep foundation pit project are summarized and summarized. This paper introduces the risk assessment method used in the deep foundation pit project of Shimao Wuli River in Shenyang. (2) the risk prediction and evaluation system of the deep foundation pit project based on the monitoring index is established, and the current national standard cumulative alarm value is taken as the control standard of the dangerous state. The safety classification standard based on monitoring index is established, which lays a theoretical foundation for risk assessment of deep foundation pit project. (3) based on the gray nature of monitoring project of deep foundation pit, the grey prediction model is used to predict the monitoring data. Grey relational analysis method is used to determine the weight of each monitoring item. Based on the risk prediction and evaluation system of deep foundation pit project based on monitoring index, the risk prediction evaluation of deep foundation pit project of Shimao Wuli River in Shenyang is carried out. (4) according to the measured and predicted risk value of deep foundation pit project in Shenyang Shimao Wuli River, This paper analyzes the security state of each monitoring project when it appears to be abnormal and the possible risk sources that cause the abnormal. Combined with the risk decision of a single monitoring project, the effective risk countermeasures are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：长春工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU753;TU71

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