大型建设工程项目施工进度风险耦合分析及其仿真研究
发布时间：2018-08-14 11:01
【摘要】：随着中国现代化进程的日益加快,我国大型建设工程项目行业也步入了持续快速发展的轨道。大型建设工程项目不仅是工程领域的一个重要组成部分,也是国民经济需要不断提升地一个很重要的部分。然而,我国工程业的迅猛发展不仅给建筑业带来巨大的经济压力,其中出现的进度拖延等情况更成为亟需解决的问题。在我国工程进度拖延损失的统计中,由于不确定因素的发生而导致施工进度无法有效控制的现象不断出现。因此,本文运用风险管理学、数理统计学、工程项目管理等理论知识对大型建设工程项目施工进度风险耦合模型及风险耦合分析系统进行分析研究,旨在提高大型建设工程项目施工过程中的风险管理水平。本文主要从以下几个方面对大型建设工程项目施工进度风险耦合分析及其仿真问题进行研究。首先,为研究国内外风险耦合问题的研究现状,在查阅了大量国内外相关文献的基础上,进行了综述。在该基础上,对风险耦合的相关概念进行简介,论述了大型建设工程项目施工进度风险的内涵,利用问卷调查法和专家法,在多家企业工程现场问卷调查,对象包括业主、监理、施工方、承包商等与工程进度相关的参与方,利用权重提取出在工程进度中对建设工程项目影响较深的风险指标因素。在提取并确定了相关的风险指标后,利用数理知识等对本文风险耦合研究建立了施工进度风险耦合模型,为确保下一步构建施工进度风险耦合分析系统的正确性,在该部分对施工进度风险耦合模型进行了有效性验证。在上述模型验证有效性的基础上,本文构建了风险耦合分析系统,其中包括对该系统各模块和界面的简单介绍,并引进某高校大型建设工程项目中的一个单位工程进行实例验证,其结果表明该风险耦合分析系统在实时动态管理施工进度风险方面具有很高的效率和价值,是可行的。最后总结了本文的研究结论与创新点,并指出了其不足及需要改进的地方,为后续研究指明了方向。本文利用耦合在大型建设工程项目施工进度风险管理领域的影响,运用数理统计学、工程项目管理及计算机仿真学等理论构建了施工进度风险耦合模型,利用实例揭示施工进度风险耦合的内在规律,在此基础上,构建施工进度风险耦合分析系统,探讨施工进度风险耦合度,在大型建设工程项目施工进度风险管理方面具有创新性,这将有利于及时预防大型建设工程项目施工进度中风险耦合的进一步发展演变,提升施工进度过程中的风险管理水平,促进我国工程建设项目健康发展。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of China's modernization process, China's large-scale construction project industry has also stepped into the track of sustained and rapid development. Large construction project is not only an important part of engineering field, but also an important part of national economy. However, the rapid development of China's engineering industry not only brings enormous economic pressure to the construction industry, but also the delay in progress becomes a problem that needs to be solved. In the statistics of project schedule delay loss in our country, the phenomenon that the construction progress can not be effectively controlled due to the occurrence of uncertain factors is constantly appearing. Therefore, this paper uses the theory knowledge of risk management, mathematical statistics, engineering project management and so on to analyze and study the risk coupling model and risk coupling analysis system of large-scale construction projects. The aim is to improve the risk management level in the construction process of large-scale construction projects. In this paper, the risk coupling analysis and simulation of construction schedule of large construction projects are studied in the following aspects. Firstly, in order to study the current situation of risk coupling at home and abroad, a review is made on the basis of consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literatures. On this basis, the concept of risk coupling is briefly introduced, and the connotation of construction schedule risk of large-scale construction project is discussed. The questionnaire survey method and expert method are used to survey the project site in many enterprises, including the owner. Supervision, construction, contractor and other related parties, using the weight to extract the risk index factors that have a deep impact on the construction project in the progress of the project. In order to ensure the correctness of the construction schedule risk coupling analysis system, the risk coupling model of construction schedule is established by using mathematical knowledge and so on after extracting and determining the relevant risk index. In this part, the effectiveness of the risk coupling model of construction schedule is verified. On the basis of the validity of the above models, a risk coupling analysis system is constructed, which includes a brief introduction of each module and interface of the system. A unit project in a large construction project of a university is introduced for verification. The results show that the risk coupling analysis system has high efficiency and value in real-time and dynamic management of construction schedule risk, and it is feasible. Finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusions and innovation points, and points out its shortcomings and needs to be improved, pointing out the direction for further research. Based on the influence of coupling in the field of risk management of construction schedule of large construction project, this paper constructs the risk coupling model of construction schedule using mathematical statistics, engineering project management and computer simulation. On the basis of revealing the inherent law of construction schedule risk coupling, a construction schedule risk coupling analysis system is constructed, and the degree of construction schedule risk coupling is discussed. It is innovative in the risk management of construction schedule of large-scale construction project, which will help to prevent the further development and evolution of risk coupling in the construction progress of large-scale construction project in time, and improve the risk management level in the construction progress process. To promote the healthy development of China's engineering construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU722
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of China's modernization process, China's large-scale construction project industry has also stepped into the track of sustained and rapid development. Large construction project is not only an important part of engineering field, but also an important part of national economy. However, the rapid development of China's engineering industry not only brings enormous economic pressure to the construction industry, but also the delay in progress becomes a problem that needs to be solved. In the statistics of project schedule delay loss in our country, the phenomenon that the construction progress can not be effectively controlled due to the occurrence of uncertain factors is constantly appearing. Therefore, this paper uses the theory knowledge of risk management, mathematical statistics, engineering project management and so on to analyze and study the risk coupling model and risk coupling analysis system of large-scale construction projects. The aim is to improve the risk management level in the construction process of large-scale construction projects. In this paper, the risk coupling analysis and simulation of construction schedule of large construction projects are studied in the following aspects. Firstly, in order to study the current situation of risk coupling at home and abroad, a review is made on the basis of consulting a large number of domestic and foreign literatures. On this basis, the concept of risk coupling is briefly introduced, and the connotation of construction schedule risk of large-scale construction project is discussed. The questionnaire survey method and expert method are used to survey the project site in many enterprises, including the owner. Supervision, construction, contractor and other related parties, using the weight to extract the risk index factors that have a deep impact on the construction project in the progress of the project. In order to ensure the correctness of the construction schedule risk coupling analysis system, the risk coupling model of construction schedule is established by using mathematical knowledge and so on after extracting and determining the relevant risk index. In this part, the effectiveness of the risk coupling model of construction schedule is verified. On the basis of the validity of the above models, a risk coupling analysis system is constructed, which includes a brief introduction of each module and interface of the system. A unit project in a large construction project of a university is introduced for verification. The results show that the risk coupling analysis system has high efficiency and value in real-time and dynamic management of construction schedule risk, and it is feasible. Finally, this paper summarizes the research conclusions and innovation points, and points out its shortcomings and needs to be improved, pointing out the direction for further research. Based on the influence of coupling in the field of risk management of construction schedule of large construction project, this paper constructs the risk coupling model of construction schedule using mathematical statistics, engineering project management and computer simulation. On the basis of revealing the inherent law of construction schedule risk coupling, a construction schedule risk coupling analysis system is constructed, and the degree of construction schedule risk coupling is discussed. It is innovative in the risk management of construction schedule of large-scale construction project, which will help to prevent the further development and evolution of risk coupling in the construction progress of large-scale construction project in time, and improve the risk management level in the construction progress process. To promote the healthy development of China's engineering construction projects.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU722
【参考文献】
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