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面向新型城镇化的气候承载力指标研究——以皖江城市带为例

发布时间:2018-10-10 19:42
【摘要】:从服务新型城镇化进程出发,本文基于气候条件与人类活动的相互作用关系,同时考虑气候的资源和灾害双重属性,识别并构建了包含气候资源供给、气候灾害限制和城镇化协调发展水平三方面要素的气候承载力评价指标体系,进而采用熵权法、耦合协调度模型和GIS技术等方法实现了指标的量化,形成了气候承载力的综合评价指标和模型。以皖江城市带为例,应用该套指标方法探讨了气候承载力的空间格局与关键影响因子,结果表明,皖江城市带城镇化发展格局与气候承载力分布较为一致,气候承载力较高的地区意味着可容纳的城市发展负荷量较高,而与之对应的这些地区城镇化集聚程度也较高;但气候承载力水平空间差异显著,区域整体气候承载力还有待进一步优化提升。根据城镇化集聚度和气候承载力特点,将皖江城市带分为4个等级和12种类型,并进一步揭示了不同类型地区存在的承载力"短板"和问题现状。
[Abstract]:Based on the interaction between climate conditions and human activities, and considering the dual attributes of climate resources and disasters, this paper identifies and constructs the supply of climate resources from the perspective of serving the new urbanization process. The evaluation index system of climate bearing capacity of the three elements of climate disaster restriction and urbanization coordinated development level is presented. Then, the quantification of the index is realized by using entropy weight method, coupling coordination model and GIS technology, etc. The comprehensive evaluation index and model of climate bearing capacity are formed. Taking the urban belt of Wanjiang River as an example, the spatial pattern of climate carrying capacity and the key influencing factors are discussed by using this set of index methods. The results show that the distribution of urbanization pattern and climate carrying capacity in the urban belt of Anhui River is consistent with the distribution of climate carrying capacity. The higher bearing capacity of climate means that the amount of urban development load can be higher, and the corresponding degree of urbanization agglomeration is higher in these areas, but the spatial difference of the level of climate carrying capacity is significant. The overall climate bearing capacity of the region needs to be further optimized and enhanced. According to the characteristics of urbanization concentration and climate bearing capacity, the urban belt of Wanjiang River is divided into 4 grades and 12 types, and the "short plates" and problems of bearing capacity in different types of areas are further revealed.
【作者单位】: 安徽省气象局气候中心;安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室;安徽省气象局公共气象服务中心;
【基金】:中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201507,CCSF201734);中国气象局青年英才计划 中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013028) 安徽省气象局创新团队建设计划
【分类号】:P463.3

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