钢结构模块化住宅全生命周期成本与效益分析

发布时间：2018-11-14 17:36

【摘要】：走可持续发展的建筑之路、走建筑产业现代化道路、发展工业化住宅是当前建筑行业达成的基本共识。钢结构模块化住宅是工业化住宅发展的产物,是工业化住宅的典型代表。预制率高、环境污染小、资源消耗较少、质量性能可靠以及工业化程度高是其突出的优势,但行业内对该工业化住宅体系一直持观望态度。从全生命周期角度分析钢结构模块化住宅成本组成以及寻求合理的成本估算方法估算生命周期成本有助于突出钢结构模块化住宅生命周期成本的优势,对钢结构模块化住宅的发展具有重要意义。其次,评价研究钢结构模块化住宅的综合效益与有利于突出其综合优势,为相关企业的住宅体系选择提供借鉴。首先,文章以全生命周期成本理论为研究基础,以一般成本和模块成本为划分边界,构建了钢结构模块化住宅的全生命周期成本体系。以成本体系为基础,文章运用AHP方法定性分析得出规模经济、项目定位、整合程度和模块技术是影响钢结构模块化住宅全生命周期成本的关键因素,并从企业和政府的角度提出了相应的对策。其次,文章引入了支持向量机算法对初始建设成本进行估算,引入了基于未确知数学理论的方法估算其未来成本,定量研究钢结构模块化住宅全生命周期成本估算模型。然后,以成本分析为基础,文章对钢结构模块化住宅的综合效益进行了系统分析,运用熵值法从经济效益、环境效益、社会效益和技术效益四个方面建立了综合效益评价体系模型。最后,文章运用支持向量机回归预测模型和未确知数学估算法对某钢结构模块化住宅工程展开生命周期成本估算;以估算结果为基础,文章对比分析了其与一般钢筋混凝土装配式住宅、现浇钢筋混凝土住宅的生命周期成本,对比结果表明工业化住宅未来成本要明显低于现浇钢筋混凝土住宅;随着工业化住宅建设规模的扩大,工业化住宅生命周期成本优势将不断显现。在此基础上,文章运用评价模型对比分析了钢结构模块化住宅工程与一般钢筋混凝土装配式住宅工程的综合效益,得出钢结构模块化住宅的综合效益要优于一般钢筋混凝土装配式住宅的结论。
[Abstract]:It is the basic consensus of the current construction industry to take the road of sustainable development of architecture, the road of modernization of construction industry and the development of industrialized residence. The steel structure modularized residence is the product of the industrialization residence development, is the typical representative of the industrial residence. High prefabrication rate, low environmental pollution, less consumption of resources, reliable quality and high degree of industrialization are its outstanding advantages, but the industrial housing system has always been wait-and-see attitude in the industry. From the point of view of whole life cycle, it is helpful to analyze the cost composition of steel structure modular housing and to seek reasonable cost estimation method to estimate the life cycle cost of steel structure modular residence, which is helpful to highlight the advantages of steel structure modular housing life cycle cost. It is of great significance to the development of steel structure modular residence. Secondly, the comprehensive benefits and advantages of the steel structure modular housing are evaluated and studied, which can be used for reference in the selection of the housing system of the related enterprises. Firstly, based on the whole life cycle cost theory and the boundary of general cost and module cost, the whole life cycle cost system of steel modular residence is constructed. On the basis of cost system, this paper uses AHP method to analyze qualitatively that scale economy, project orientation, integration degree and module technology are the key factors that affect the whole life cycle cost of steel structure modular housing. And put forward the corresponding countermeasure from the angle of enterprise and government. Secondly, support vector machine (SVM) algorithm is introduced to estimate the initial construction cost, and the method based on unascertained mathematical theory is introduced to estimate the future cost. Then, on the basis of cost analysis, the comprehensive benefits of steel structure modular housing are systematically analyzed, and the entropy method is used to analyze the economic and environmental benefits. The comprehensive benefit evaluation system model is established in four aspects: social benefit and technical benefit. Finally, support vector machine regression prediction model and unascertained mathematical estimation method are used to estimate the life cycle cost of a steel structure modular housing project. Based on the estimated results, the life cycle cost of this system is compared with that of general reinforced concrete prefabricated residence and cast-in-place reinforced concrete residence. The results show that the future cost of industrial residence is obviously lower than that of cast-in-place reinforced concrete residence. With the expansion of the scale of industrial housing construction, the advantage of life-cycle cost of industrialized housing will continue to appear. On this basis, the paper compares and analyzes the comprehensive benefits of steel structure modular housing project and general reinforced concrete assembly housing project by using the evaluation model. It is concluded that the comprehensive benefit of steel structure modular residence is better than that of general reinforced concrete prefabricated residence.
【学位授予单位】：江苏科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU723.3

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