北京市老年公寓选址问题研究

发布时间：2019-06-29 09:27

【摘要】：人口老龄化是当前社会面临的最为严峻的挑战之一,家庭结构和传统养老观念的改变导致养老方面的需求急剧增长,老年公寓正是在这种严峻的现实压力、强大的市场需求以及政策大力引导的时代背景下所诞生的。本文在北京市养老服务机构发展与政策分析的基础上,针对老年公寓用地选址过程的两阶段特定,采用系统聚类分析方法建立区域适宜度评价模型,为老年公寓项目选择适宜的发展区域,并在此基础上基于影响因素加权平均法进一步建立老年公寓用地空间位置选择模型,对朝阳区进行老年公寓用地适宜性划分。具体研究结论如下:(1)2006年以来北京市养老服务机构数量、床位数不断增加,其中政府办养老服务机构数量相对稳定,社会办养老服务机构数量稳步增加。从空间上看,养老服务机构主要位于郊区,五环外的养老服务机构数量占总数的78.25%,床位数占83.35%,同时还存在床位配置总量不足、结构不合理、空间错位等问题;通过对政策发展演变的解读看出政府对待养老产业的核心理念在于逐步建立以居家为基础,社区为依托,机构为支撑的养老服务体系,让社会力量逐步成为发展养老服务产业的主体。(2)以北京市其中14个区(县)为研究对象,结合影响因素选取原则,选取经济、自然、基础设施、市场供需等因素,利用SPSS软件中的系统聚类分析将14个研究区(县)划分为适宜发展区域、潜力发展区域、暂不适宜发展区域,其中适宜发展区域包括朝阳区、丰台区、通州区、大兴区、海淀区、顺义区,潜力发展区域包括石景山区、房山区、昌平区、门头沟区,暂不适宜发展区域包括怀柔区、密云区、平谷区、延庆区。(3)在区域适宜度评价的基础上,选取配套设施、周边环境、交通状况等因素,进一步对适宜发展区域中的朝阳区进行用地空间位置优劣评价,将朝阳区划分为适宜区、较适宜区、较不适宜区、不适应区,并结合北京城市总体规划(2016年-2030年)和朝阳区“十三五”时期空间发展目标,提出五环外的来广营地区是未来朝阳区老年公寓重点发展区域;同时对朝阳区现有的老年公寓布局进行分析评价,发现布局于适宜区和较不适宜区的老年公寓达到73.68%,说明朝阳区现有的老年公寓用地布局适宜性较好。
[Abstract]:The aging of the population is one of the most serious challenges facing the current society. The change of family structure and traditional concept of providing for the aged leads to the rapid growth of the demand for the aged. Apartments for the elderly were born under this severe realistic pressure, strong market demand and policy guidance. Based on the development and policy analysis of pension service institutions in Beijing, aiming at the two stages of the site selection process of apartment land for the elderly, this paper uses the systematic cluster analysis method to establish the regional suitability evaluation model to select the appropriate development area for the elderly apartment project, and on this basis, further establishes the spatial location selection model of the elderly apartment land based on the weighted average method of influencing factors. The suitability of apartment land for the elderly in Chaoyang District was divided. The specific conclusions are as follows: (1) since 2006, the number of old-age service institutions and beds in Beijing has been increasing, among which the number of government-run old-age service institutions is relatively stable, and the number of social-run pension service institutions is steadily increasing. From the spatial point of view, the pension service institutions are mainly located in the suburbs, the number of pension service institutions outside the Fifth Ring Road accounts for 78.25% of the total number of beds, the number of beds accounts for 83.35%. At the same time, there are still some problems, such as insufficient total allocation of beds, unreasonable structure, spatial dislocation and so on. Through the interpretation of the development and evolution of the policy, it can be seen that the core idea of the government's treatment of the pension industry lies in the gradual establishment of a pension service system based on home, based on the community and supported by institutions, so that social forces can gradually become the main body of the development of the old-age service industry. (2) taking 14 of the districts (counties) in Beijing as the research object, combined with the selection principles of influencing factors, the economy, nature and infrastructure are selected. Based on the systematic cluster analysis of market supply and demand, 14 study areas (counties) are divided into suitable development areas, potential development areas and temporary unsuitable development areas, including Chaoyang District, Fengtai District, Tongzhou District, Daxing District, Haidian District, Shunyi District, potential Development area including Shijingshan District, Fangshan District, Changping District, Mentougou District, including Huairou District. Miyun District, Pinggu District, Yanqing District. (3) on the basis of regional suitability evaluation, select supporting facilities, surrounding environment, traffic conditions and other factors, further evaluate the spatial location of land use in Chaoyang District, which is suitable for development area, and divide Chaoyang District into suitable area, less suitable area and unsuitable area. Combined with the overall planning of Beijing (2016-2030) and the spatial development goal of Chaoyang District during the 13th five-year Plan period, it is pointed out that the Laiguangying area outside the Fifth Ring Road is the key development area of elderly apartments in Chaoyang District in the future. At the same time, the layout of the existing apartment for the elderly in Chaoyang District is analyzed and evaluated, and it is found that the layout of the apartment for the elderly in the suitable area and the unsuitable area is 73.68%, which indicates that the land layout of the existing apartment for the elderly in Chaoyang District is better.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：TU241.93

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