我国人力资本及其空间分布对产业结构升级影响研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 17:19

  本文关键词：我国人力资本及其空间分布对产业结构升级影响研究　出处：《吉林大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 人力资本 人力资本空间分布 产业结构升级 异质性 非线性特征

【摘要】：关于人力资本的研究,更多关注其对经济增长的影响,涉及人力资本与产业结构升级之间关系的研究相对较少。作为产业结构升级的重要影响因素之一,人力资本不仅决定产业结构升级的速度也对产业结构转型的方向有着重要影响。因而,应该深入把握人力资本与产业结构升级之间的关系。一方面,由于个体受教育程度、技能掌握情况和社会地位等因素的差异,人力资本会表现出明显的异质性特征。另一方面,人作为人力资本的载体,在不同区域间流动,会导致人力资本空间分布格局发生改变。基于此,本文多角度、系统地研究我国人力资本及其空间分布对产业结构升级的影响,主要研究内容与相关结论如下:(1)本文首先基于总量人力资本视角,考察人力资本积累与资本深化对产业结构升级的影响。通过构建一个包含两部门的产业结构变迁模型,探讨了人力资本积累与资本深化对产业结构升级的作用机制,进一步设定动态面板数据模型,利用系统GMM估计方法进行实证分析。结果表明:人力资本积累与资本深化对我国产业结构升级均具有显著地推动作用,从作用强度来看,单位人力资本积累对产业结构升级的作用效果要高于单位资本深化。此外,当期产业结构水平与上一期产业结构水平表现出显著正相关关系,表明产业结构升级存在明显的路径依赖特征。我们还发现,资本深化对产业结构升级的影响存在人力资本门限效应,当人力资本存量小于等于6.926时,资本深化对产业结构升的边际影响系数为0.004;当人力资本存量跨过门限之后,资本深化对产业结构升的贡献度大幅提高,资本深化程度增加1个百分点将会引起产业结构水平提升0.007个百分点。(2)鉴于不同类型人力资本对产业结构升级的贡献程度有所不同,本文通过构建数理模型演绎了异质型人力资本对产业结构升级的影响。在此基础上,采用灰色系统理论,运用耦合度模型测算了我国异质型人力资本系统与产业结构系统之间的关联度和耦合度。结果发现,初级人力资本对第一产业影响明显强于第二、三产业,中、高级人力资本对第二、三产业发展影响较大。此外,我们还采用分位数回归模型,比较细致地考察了异质型人力资本与产业结构升级关系的动态演变。从全国层面看,初级人力资本未能推动产业结构升级,反而出现抑制作用;伴随产业结构深化调整,中级人力资本对产业结构升级的作用效果呈现出阶段性差异;高级人力资本对产业结构升级表现出显著的促进作用,并且其边际贡献逐渐增加。从分地区层面看,中部和东部地区中、高级人力资本与产业结构水平表现为正相关,并且高级人力资本对产业结构优化升级的促进效应强于中级人力资本,而西部地区可能是因为高水平人力资本流失严重,中级人力资本和高级人力资本对产业结构升级并没有出现明显的促进作用。(3)本文将空间因素引入产业结构升级的研究框架,构建空间滞后模型和空间误差模型,对人力资本集聚与产业结构升级的关系进行定量分析,从而揭示出人力资本集聚对产业结构升级影响的内在机理。研究表明,我国产业结构升级存在显著的空间依赖性,周边地区的产业结构发展可以带动本地区产业结构升级。人力资本集聚对地区产业结构升级具有明显的促进作用,但考虑空间效应后,人力资本集聚的贡献程度有所下降。此外,伴随时间发展,人力资本集聚对产业结构升级作用逐渐趋强。当前我国人力资本集聚呈现出东、中、西梯度分布格局,人力资本集聚显著地促进东部地区产业结构升级,但对中部地区产业结构无明显影响,西部地区人力资本集聚程度最低,且对产业结构升级表现出明显的抑制作用。进一步,考虑到受制于经济发展水平,人力资本集聚对产业结构升级并非简单地表现出线性影响,两者之间可能存在非线性关系。于是,本文利用面板平滑转换模型,以经济发展水平作为门限变量,检验了人力资本集聚对产业结构升级影响的非线性特征。结果不仅支持人力资本集聚与产业结构升级之间“U”型关系的存在,还表明人力资本集聚对产业结构升级存在经济发展水平的门限效应,只有经济发展水平跃过门限值后,人力资本集聚才能促进产业结构升级。为消除人力资本集聚与产业结构升级之间双向因果关系的影响,我们建立人力资本集聚与产业结构升级联立方程模型进行检验。结果显示,当地区经济发展水平相对较低时,人力资本集聚并不利于本地区产业结构升级;当地区经济发展进入高水平阶段后,人力资本集聚对地区产业结构升级表现出明显地推动作用。与面板平滑转换模型结果一致,保证了本文研究结论的稳健性。(4)我国人力资本集聚趋势不断加强,同时人力资本空间分布差异程度居高不下。针对此问题,本文从产业异质性视角,进一步探讨了人力资本空间分布差异对产业结构升级的影响。我们分别采用教育基尼系数和泰尔指数来刻画人力资本空间分布差异程度,从测算结果来看,我国人力资本空间分布差异程度总体上呈下降态势,并表现出东、中、西递增的区域特征。而后,借助泰尔指数可分解的优良特性,对人力资本空间分布差异进行分解,以更为清晰地体现出区域内部差异化结构变动。研究表明,目前我国人力资本空间分布差异主要表现为区域内差异。此外,本文引入城乡收入差距中介变量,采用中介效应模型,检验了人力资本空间分布差异通过城乡收入差距效应影响产业结构升级的作用机理。结果显示,人力资本空间分布不均衡会引起城乡收入差距扩大,由此形成的城乡收入差距中介效应会抑制产业结构转型升级。
[Abstract]:Research on human capital, pay more attention to its impact on economic growth, the research involves the relationship between human capital and the upgrading of the industrial structure is relatively small. As one of the important factors affecting the upgrading of industrial structure, human capital not only determines the speed of the upgrading of industrial structure has an important influence on the industrial structure transformation direction. Therefore, should be thoroughly grasp the relationship between human capital and industrial structure upgrading. On the one hand, because of the individual differences in factors of education, skills and social status, human capital will show obvious heterogeneity. On the other hand, as the carrier of human capital, the flow in different regions, will lead to human capital the distribution pattern changes. Based on this, this paper multi angle, systematic study of China's human capital and its spatial distribution effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure, the main research The contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) based on the perspective of total human capital, on human capital accumulation and capital deepening effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure. The industrial structure changes by constructing a model consists of two departments, discusses the human capital accumulation and capital deepening on the mechanism of the upgrading of industrial structure, further dynamic setting the panel data model, estimation method using an empirical analysis of the GMM system. The results showed that the accumulation of human capital and capital deepening has a significant role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure of our country, from the effects of view, human capital accumulated effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure is higher than that of the unit of capital deepening. In addition, the level of the industrial structure with a period of industrial structure level showed significant positive correlation, shows that the upgrading of the industrial structure has obvious characteristics of path dependence. We also send Now, capital deepening is the human capital threshold effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure, when the stock of human capital is less than or equal to 6.926, the marginal effect coefficient of industrial structure is 0.004 liters of deepening capital; when the stock of human capital across the threshold of industrial capital deepening contribution structure rise significantly, capital deepening increased 1 percentage points caused by the level of industrial structure increased by 0.007 percentage points. (2) in view of the different types of human capital contribution to the upgrading of the industrial structure is different, this paper constructs a mathematical model through interpretation of the influence of different type of human capital on the upgrading of the industrial structure. On this basis, using grey system theory, using the coupling model the measurement system of our country between idiosyncratic human capital and industrial structure correlation and coupling degree. The results showed that the primary effect of human capital on the first industry in Ming Dynasty Was strong in the second, third industry, and advanced human capital to the development of the second, third industry influence. In addition, we also use quantile regression model, more detailed study on dynamic evolution of the relationship between human capital and industrial structure upgrade heterogeneous. From the national level, at the level of human capital to promote the upgrading of the industrial structure, but the inhibition effect; with the deepening of the industrial structure adjustment, the intermediate effect of human capital on the upgrading of industrial structure and show a phase difference; advanced human capital to the upgrading of industrial structure has significant role in promoting, and the marginal contribution increased gradually. From the regional perspective, the central and eastern regions, advanced human capital and industry level the structure performance is positively related, and advanced human capital to promote the optimization and upgrading of the intermediate effect is stronger than the human capital structure, while the western region may be due to For the high level of human capital loss, secondary human capital and advanced human capital to upgrade industrial structure and no obvious promoting effect. (3) the spatial factor into the research framework of the upgrading of industrial structure, constructing the spatial lag model and spatial error model of human capital accumulation through quantitative analysis and the relationship between the upgrading of industrial structure in order to reveal the internal mechanism, the human capital agglomeration effect on the upgrading of industrial structure. The results show that the upgrading of China's industrial structure has significant spatial dependence, industrial structure can promote the development of the surrounding area of local industrial structure upgrading. Human capital agglomeration plays a significant role in promoting the upgrading of regional industrial structure, but considering the spatial effect decline, contribution of human capital agglomeration. Furthermore, with the development of time, Human Capital Agglomeration on industrial structure upgrading effect by Is strong. The current human capital agglomeration of our country shows East, West gradient distribution pattern, human capital agglomeration significantly promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of the eastern region, but has no obvious influence on the industrial structure of the central region, the western region human capital agglomeration and the lowest level and upgrade of the industry structure showed obvious inhibitory effect further. Considering that, subject to the level of economic development, Human Capital Agglomeration on the upgrading of the industrial structure is not simply to show the linear effect between the two, there may be a non-linear relationship. So, this paper uses the panel smooth transition model, with the level of economic development as the threshold variable, to test the nonlinear characteristics of the human capital agglomeration effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure not only results. Support the concentration of human capital and the upgrading of the industrial structure between the "U" type relationship, also shows that the human capital agglomeration on the upgrade of the industrial structure. The threshold effect of the economic development level, only the level of economic development over the threshold value, the human capital agglomeration can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure. As the effect of eliminating the two-way causality between human capital agglomeration and the upgrading of the industrial structure, we establish the human capital agglomeration and industrial structure upgrading in the simultaneous equation model test. The results show that when the regional economy a relatively low level of development, human capital accumulation is not conducive to the upgrading of the industrial structure of the region; when the regional economic development into the high level, the human capital agglomeration on regional industrial structure upgrading showed obvious role. The results are consistent with panel smooth transition, to ensure the robustness of the conclusions of this study. (4) Human Capital China's agglomeration trend continues to strengthen, while human capital spatial distribution difference degree is very high. To solve this problem, this article from the industry heterogeneity From the perspective of, to further explore the influence of spatial distribution of the human capital in the upgrading of industrial structure. We adopt the education of Gene coefficient and Theil index to characterize the spatial distribution of human capital differences, from the calculated results, China's human capital spatial distribution difference degree was decreasing, and exhibited in East region the characteristics of Xidi is increasing. Then, with the excellent characteristics of Theil index decomposition, decomposition of the spatial distribution difference of human capital, to more clearly reflect the changes of the internal structure of the regional differences. The study shows that the spatial distribution difference of human capital in our country at present mainly for regional differences. In addition, the income gap between urban and rural areas the intermediary variable, using the mediation effect model, test the spatial distribution of human capital differences affect the mechanism of the upgrading of industrial structure through the income gap between urban and rural areas. The results show that the unbalanced spatial distribution of human capital will lead to the widening of the income gap between urban and rural areas. The mediating effect of the income gap between urban and rural areas will inhibit the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F249.21;F121.3
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本文编号：1360710