基于产业转移的京津冀碳排放总量分配研究

发布时间：2018-01-03 13:25

本文关键词：基于产业转移的京津冀碳排放总量分配研究　出处：《天津理工大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：京津冀协同发展的目标是建设世界级城市群,参与更高水平的国际合作与竞争,更好的支撑全国经济社会的发展。产业协同是京津冀协同发展的重要方面,三地区的产业转移与协作将是深入合作的突破口,包括信息技术、商贸物流、教育培训、健康养老、文化创意、体育休闲等的京津冀地区产业转移指导目录即将公布。转移产业的新发展关键在于与当地产业基础的强强联合,重新凝练产业链,实现区域资源的优化配置,将产业做强做大。然而,不可避免的是伴随产业转移产生的污染转移。本文在对2004-2013年京津冀地区各产业生产总值、增长率等产业状况进行分析的基础上,运用产业结构差异系数分析京津冀两两地区的产业结构差异程度,并进一步分析京津冀27个产业梯度系数的大小以及变化情况,判定各地区的梯度优势产业,分析区域间产业梯度差;再引入产业区位商和动态集聚指数构建产业集聚判定模型,从存量和流量两个角度分析京津冀产业集聚的态势和产业转移的趋势。然后在产业转移的背景下分析产业碳排放的集聚状况,探究碳排放区域转移趋势,并借助投入导向型规模报酬可变DEA模型,以各产业资本、从业人数以及能源消耗为投入变量,以各产业产值区位商和产业碳排放区位商之比作为产出,测算2004-2013年京津冀产业-碳排放集聚效率的变化情况。最后以京津冀产业-碳排放集聚效率为协同减排指标,构建考虑产业碳排放转移因素的区域碳减排分配模型,设置平均权重、责任偏好、能力偏好、潜力偏好和协同减排偏好五种减排情景,分析不同减排偏好下京津冀各地区2020年的碳减排量,为产业转移以及碳排放转移下的京津冀合作减排提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:Beijing Tianjin Hebei collaborative development goal is to build a world-class city group, international cooperation and competition in a higher level, the better the national economic and social development. Supporting industry cooperation is an important aspect of Beijing Tianjin Hebei coordinated development, industrial transfer and cooperation will be a breakthrough in three areas in-depth cooperation, including information technology, trade and logistics. Education and training, health care, cultural creativity, leisure sports such as the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region transfer of industry guidance catalogue to be announced. The new development of key industry transfer lies in combination with the local industry, re condensed industry chain, optimize the allocation of regional resources, and stronger industry. However, it is accompanied by the transfer of industry the transfer of pollution. Based on the 2004-2013 of each industry GDP of Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, the basis of the analysis of the status of the growth rate of the industry, the use of industrial structure difference The degree of the industrial structure differences in factor analysis 22 of Tianjin area, and further analysis of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei 27 industrial gradient coefficient and changes, determine the gradient advantage industry in various regions, analysis of regional industrial gradient; then introduce the industrial location quotient and dynamic cluster index construction industry cluster decision model, from two angles stock and flow analysis of Beijing Tianjin Hebei Industrial Agglomeration trend and industrial transfer trend. Then analyzes the status of industrial agglomeration of carbon emissions in the context of industrial transfer, exploring regional carbon emissions transfer trend, and with the input oriented variable returns to scale DEA model, the industrial capital, number of employees and the energy consumption for the input variables. The industry location quotient and industrial carbon emission location quotient as the ratio of output, changes in estimates 2004-2013 Beijing Tianjin Hebei Industrial carbon emissions - agglomeration efficiency. Finally In the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Industrial Agglomeration efficiency for carbon emissions collaborative emission reduction targets, the construction of regional carbon emissions allocation model considering the industrial carbon emissions transfer factors, setting up the average weight, responsibility ability preference, preference, preference and preference of potential synergy emissions of five emission reduction scenarios, different emission preference analysis of 2020 Beijing Tianjin Hebei regional carbon emission reduction. To provide the decision-making basis for the industrial transfer as well as Beijing and Hebei cooperation under the transfer of carbon emission reduction.

【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127;X196

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