进口波动视角下中国棉花产业安全研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 08:04

本文关键词：进口波动视角下中国棉花产业安全研究　出处：《安徽财经大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：棉花是我国种植业中仅次于粮食的重要大宗农产品。改革开放以来,中国棉花的生产出现较大的波动,供不应求或供过于求的市场状况反复出现,政府也出台了一系列政策来改善棉花流通体制。加入WTO以后,随着国内经济的迅速发展,纺织工业的棉花需求量大幅度增加,进一步扩大了棉花的进口。特别是近些年,棉花大幅度进口已严重冲击了国内棉花市场的发展,进口棉花的波动已成为影响中国棉花产业安全的重要因素。针对棉花进口波动问题,文章首先分析了国内棉花供需状况,国内棉花的供不应求是造成棉花大幅度进口的重要原因。且通过对未来中国棉花供需的预测分析得出,十年后中国棉花的供需缺口依旧存在并且有扩大的趋势。然后从理论上分析了进口波动对中国棉花产业安全的影响。针对中国棉花产业安全问题的研究,文章首先借鉴相关学者的研究从国内和国际两方面选取指标构建棉花产业安全指标体系。然后,将进口波动和棉花产业安全的内容结合起来,采用层次分析法求得各指标相对于总目标的权重。最后,经过加权求和得出1995-2012年中国棉花产业安全状态得分。从结果数据分析表明,中国棉花产业安全总体上安全状态分数较低,多数年份处在基本安全状态,若干年份还出现了不安全的状态。其中,产业国际竞争力和产业控制力的指标分数值呈下降趋势,产业生存环境也没有改善。特别是产业国际竞争力,其分数值均值最低,处于不安全状态,直接恶化了棉花产业安全状态。
[Abstract]:Cotton is one of the most important agricultural products in China next to grain. Since the reform and opening up, the production of cotton in China has fluctuated greatly, and the market situation that supply exceeds supply or oversupply has repeatedly appeared. The government has also issued a series of policies to improve the cotton circulation system. With the rapid development of domestic economy after China's entry into WTO, the demand for cotton in textile industry has increased by a large margin. In recent years, the large import of cotton has seriously impacted the development of domestic cotton market, and the fluctuation of imported cotton has become an important factor affecting the safety of China's cotton industry. In view of the fluctuation of cotton import, the article first analyzes the domestic cotton supply and demand situation. The shortage of domestic cotton supply is an important reason for the large import of cotton, and through the prediction and analysis of cotton supply and demand in the future in China. After ten years, the gap between supply and demand of cotton in China still exists and has a tendency to expand. Then, the influence of import fluctuation on the safety of Chinese cotton industry is analyzed theoretically. Aiming at the research of cotton industry safety in China, this paper first draws lessons from the research of relevant scholars to construct the cotton industry safety index system from both domestic and international aspects. The import fluctuation and the content of cotton industry safety are combined and the weight of each index relative to the total target is obtained by AHP. Finally. After weighted summation, China's cotton industry security state score between 1995 and 2012. The analysis of the result data shows that the overall safety state score of China's cotton industry is relatively low, most of the years are in a basic state of safety, and some years are still unsafe. The index value of industrial international competitiveness and industrial control is declining, and the living environment of industry has not been improved. Especially, the industrial international competitiveness has the lowest mean value and is in unsafe state. Direct deterioration of the cotton industry security state.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F326.12;F752.61

【参考文献】