中国对外直接投资对国内产业结构升级的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-21 00:49

本文关键词： 对外直接投资产业结构优化升级企业走出去　出处：《东北财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国自改革开放以来,经济发展的成果举世瞩目,跨国资本流动也日益频繁,从"引进来"到"走出去",中国对外直接投资突飞猛进,成功跻身世界第三大投资国,到2015年末,中国对外直接投资的存量规模首次跨越万亿美元的大关,保持了连续13年增长。同时中国经济发展进入新常态,要求稳增长调结构,而国内产业升级缓慢、效益低下的现象日益凸显,中国尚处于国际生产价值链的底层环节,存在促进产业结构升级的内在动力和外在压力。在这两大背景下,如何合理地利用蓬勃发展的对外直接投资促进国内产业结构的优化升级,具有重要的理论与现实意义。以往的研究多关注于对外直接投资对东道国产业结构的影响,且大部分是基于发达国家的先行经验而总结得出结论,缺乏系统的关于发展中国家对外直接投资影响国内产业升级的效应研究,对中国的研究多从理论视角,较少实证分析。本文对比分析了国内外的相关理论和实证研究成果,将我国对外直接投资作为研究对象,分别从宏观和微观的理论视角,分析其对国内产业结构升级的影响和驱动机制;考虑现实国情,将对外直接投资、人均GDP、固定资产投资、进出口和研发经费等多个可能影响我国产业结构升级的变量引入模型,力求使研究更全面;既有全国范围的时间序列数据检验,又有东部典型十省份的面板数据分析,使研究结果更具说服力。第一部分,首先梳理了国内外相关的理论文献,国内外学者分别以发达经济体和不发达经济体作为研究对象,大多数得出结论认为对外直接投资对投资国的产业升级有积极影响,也有部分学者提出负面效应比如"产业空心化"理论。第二部分,分析中国对外直接投资的规模、行业和区位分布,以及当前国内产业结构的现状特点和突出矛盾。第三部分,本文对相关概念进行界定,分别从宏微观角度分析对外直接投资促进我国产业结构升级的影响和驱动机制。宏观方面,对外直接投资可以通过边际产业转移效应、产业关联效应和产业内竞争效应三个方面来影响产业结构的优化升级;微观企业对外投资的行为按动因分为寻求资源、市场、效率和战略资源,对国内的产业结构升级起到驱动作用。第四部分是实证检验,引入钱纳里经典"结构增长"模型,从产业高度化角度构建衡量产业结构升级的指标,考虑现实国情,加入影响我国产业升级的各变量。首先根据全国1992-2014年的时间序列数据构建VAR模型,通过脉冲响应分析和方差分解检验中国对外直接投资是否能够促进本国的产业结构升级,以及影响效应的强弱;接着根据2014年底对外直接投资存量排名前十的东部典型省份2003-2014年的省级面板数据,进行局部重点的回归分析,实证结果显示:根据全国和东部典型省份的数据检验,中国对外直接投资对国内产业升级都存在显著的正向促进作用;在短期内可以促进国内产业结构的高度化,随着时间的推移效果逐渐增强并趋于稳定;但相比于人均GDP和固定资产投资,对外直接投资影响的效应较弱,且存在一定的滞后期,这主要是由我国的对外直接投资起步晚、规模小导致的。第五部分是结论与政策建议,总结本文的理论和实证结论,提出政府应完善制度和政策法规,提高对外直接投资的质和量,引导企业对外直接投资的产业和区位选择,推进投资主体多元化和投资方式多样化,更好地发挥其对国内产业结构升级的促进作用。
[Abstract]:China since the reform and opening up, economic development has attracted worldwide attention, cross-border capital flows have become increasingly frequent, from the "Introduction" to "go out", Chinese foreign direct investment by leaps and bounds, success among the world's third largest investor in China, by the end of 2015, China foreign direct investment scale of stock for the first time across the trillion dollar mark, keep 13 years of continuous growth. At the same time China economic development has entered a new norm, requirements adjust the structure of steady growth, while domestic industrial upgrading slow, low efficiency of the phenomenon has become increasingly prominent, Chinese is still in the bottom part of the international production value chain, promoting internal motivation and external pressure to upgrade the industrial structure. In the two big background, how to reasonable use of foreign direct investment to promote the vigorous development of the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure, has important theoretical and practical significance. Previous studies have paid much attention to foreign direct investment Foreign influence on the host country's industrial structure, and most of them are based on the experience of developed countries to summarize the conclusion, the lack of research on the effect of foreign direct investment in developing countries the impact of domestic industrial upgrading of the system, from the theoretical perspective on Chinese, less empirical analysis. This paper analyzes the domestic and foreign relevant theoretical and empirical research the results of China's foreign direct investment as the research object, from the macro and micro perspective, analyzes its influence on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure and driving mechanism; considering the actual situation, the foreign direct investment, per capita GDP, fixed assets investment, import and export and other R & D funds may affect the upgrading of China's industry the structure of the variable is introduced into the model to make the study more comprehensive; time series data has a nationwide test and panel data of ten provinces in Eastern typical points Analysis, make the results more convincing. The first part reviews the theoretical literature at home and abroad, the scholars at home and abroad in developed economies and developed economies as the research object, the majority concluded that foreign direct investment on investment in the country's industrial upgrading has a positive effect, some scholars put forward the negative effect such as "industry hollow" theory. The second part analysis China foreign direct investment scale, industry and regional distribution, and characteristics of the current situation of domestic industrial structure and prominent contradictions. The third part, this paper defines the related concepts, analysis of foreign direct investment from the macro and micro perspective promote the upgrading of China's industrial structure and driving mechanism. The macroscopic aspect, foreign direct investment can be transferred through the effect of marginal industry, industrial linkage effect and industrial competition effects three aspects to influence The upgrade and optimization of industry structure; micro enterprises and foreign investment behavior for press is divided into resource seeking, market efficiency, and strategic resources, to drive the upgrading of the industrial structure. The fourth part is the empirical test, the introduction of the classic "structural growth model's construction, measure the upgrading of the industrial structure from the perspective of industry height index considering the actual situation, the impact of each variable, with China's industrial upgrading. Firstly, according to the VAR model of time series data in China during 1992-2014, the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition test whether China foreign direct investment can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure of the country, and the effect of strength; then based on the provincial panel data of the eastern provinces in 2014 typical at the end of the stock of FDI ranked top ten in 2003-2014 years, focus on local regression analysis, the empirical results show that: according to the national And the typical eastern provinces inspection data, China foreign direct investment have a positive effect on promoting the upgrading of domestic industries; in the short term can promote the advancement of domestic industrial structure, with the passage of time effect increases gradually and tends to be stable; but compared to the per capita GDP and fixed asset investment, foreign direct investment influence effect is weak, and there is a certain lag, which is mainly composed of foreign direct investment in China started late, resulting in small scale. The fifth part is the conclusion and policy suggestions, this paper summarizes the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the government should improve the system of policies and regulations, improve the quality and quantity of foreign direct investment, industry and location the selection of guide enterprises of foreign direct investment, promote investment diversification and investment diversification, to better play its role in promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.6

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