老挝电力产业与经济发展的实证相关研究

发布时间：2018-01-22 15:45

本文关键词： 老挝电力产业电力消费量国民经济电力消费弹性系数协整分析回归分析岭回归　出处：《昆明理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：现代经济发展越来越离不开能源的支持。电力作为一种最基本的能源形式,在国民的经济中发挥着越来越重要的作用。经济的发展离不开电力发展的支持,同样电力的发展也需要经济发展的带动。当电力缺乏时,就会严重影响国民经济各产业的运行,从而影响国民经济的增长。电力产业作为基础行业,在国民生产中扮演着重要的角色,两者相互影响,相互推动。因此,电力消费已经成为关乎国民经济又好又快发展的重要因素。在老挝经济发展的进程中,一直出现供电量不足,造成了经济发展速度缓慢。所以,如何进行科学的供电管理以满足电力需求,确保不会出现大面积停电现象,是老挝亟待解决的问题。而关键是准确把握电力行业的发展与经济发展之间的关系,并且能够做出科学的电力产业发展规划。本文运用了计量经济学时间序列模型分析了老挝电力产业与国民经济发展的关系。首先,对老挝电力消费量与国民经济发展的关系进行探讨,发现电力消费量与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,并且存在从经济增长到电力消费量的单向因果关系。其次,对三大产业的用电量及其增加值的协整分析则表明第一产业与第二产业在用电量与其增加值之间存在协整关系,并就此建立了相应的误差修正模型。最后,基于电力消费量的影响因素,建立了多元回归模型与岭回归模型,预测了电力消费的需求量。在回归模型中最为显著的两个自变量为国内生产总值的自然对数与电力进口量的自然对数,这两个因素解释了老挝电力消费的自然对数变化量的99.5%；岭回归模型中最为显著的三个自变量为国内生产总值的自然对数、老挝人口与电力进口量的自然对数,它们解释了老挝电力消费的自然对数变化量的99.6%。通过对电力产业和国民经济关系的定量分析,我们不仅可以了解电力消费在国民经济中的重要性,并能进一步预测电力消费的变化趋势,对老挝电力产业的建设具有重要的现实意义和推动作用。
[Abstract]:More and more modern economic development cannot do without the support of energy power. As one of the most basic form of energy, plays an increasingly important role in the national economy. Economic development cannot do without the support of the development of electric power, the same power development also needs the drive for economic development. When the lack of electricity, will be serious the industry of the national economy operation, thereby affecting the growth of the national economy. The electric power industry as a basic industry, plays an important role in the national production, mutual influence, mutual promotion. Therefore, power consumption has become an important factor related to the sound and rapid development of the national economy. In Laos in the process of economic development, has been power shortage, caused by the slow pace of economic development. Therefore, how to carry out the scientific management of power supply to meet the demand for electricity, to ensure that there is no blackout phenomenon, which is Laos To solve the problem. And the key is to accurately grasp the relationship between the development of electric power industry and economic development, and make the development planning of power industry science. In this paper, using econometric time series model to analyze the relations between Laos electric power industry and national economic development. Firstly, discusses the relationship of power consumption and national economy of Laos the development, found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, and from economic growth to the power consumption of the one-way causal relationship. Secondly, with the analysis of power and the increase in the value of the association of the three industries is that the first and second industry in power consumption and increase the cointegration relationship value between, and to the establishment of the corresponding error correction model. Finally, factors affecting the power consumption based on the established multiple regression model and ridge regression model, Forecast the demand of power consumption. In the regression model for the two variables was the natural logarithm of the natural logarithm of GDP and electricity import volume, the two factors explain the change in the natural logarithm of Laos electricity consumption 99.5%; ridge regression model in the three most significant natural variables the logarithm of GDP, the natural logarithm of Laos population and power imports, they explain the variation of the natural logarithm of the electricity consumption of Laos 99.6%. through quantitative analysis of the electric power industry and the national economy relations, we can not only understand the importance of power consumption in the national economy, and further predict the change trend of electricity consumption. Has important practical significance on the construction of electric power industry in Laos and role.

【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F416.61;F133.4

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