中国煤炭产业周期波动及预控对策研究

发布时间：2018-02-09 15:31

本文关键词： 煤炭产业周期性波动影响因素政策建议　出处：《中国矿业大学》2015年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：煤炭是我国的主体能源,煤炭消费占我国一次能源消费总量的70%左右,以煤为主的能源消费格局短期内不会改变。长期以来,煤炭产业周期性波动较大,尤其是2012年以来,煤炭产业面临严重供需失衡,产业发展面临严峻挑战。研究煤炭产业周期性波动及预控对策,为保障我国能源安全,指导能源决策和规划具有重要意义。论文在回顾和吸收相关产业经济波动领域研究成果的基础上,结合煤炭产业发展实际,对中国煤炭产业周期性波动的理论和实践进行了有益的研究和探索。论文主要工作和创新方面有:一、系统地阐述了经济周期和产业周期波动理论,重点采用CF滤波方法,对影响我国煤炭产业发展的各经济变量指标进行全面分析。分析表明,我国煤炭产业存在周期性发展的特征,在1966-2013年期间有7个周期,每个周期在6-9年,波频较高、波幅较大、发展趋势偏离度大,煤炭产业发展不稳定。二、基于Hotelling模型构建了煤炭产业发展“最优路径”模型,根据模型研究得出,煤炭产业发展存在“最优路径”,各期煤炭资源开发存在“最优产量”。通过我国煤炭产业发展实际情况与处于“最优路径”的条件进行对照分析,得出我国煤炭产业发展“非优化”,偏离“最优路径”,存在无效波动。三、通过煤炭产业波动影响的机理模型,找出国民经济发展、煤炭需求、资源开发政策、煤炭产业投资、煤炭价格、资源开发利润、产业竞争性等都是影响煤炭产业波动的重要因素。我国煤炭产业资本投入、劳动投入、资本利润水平、产业竞争度、煤炭价格、资源开发税费因素与煤炭产业产出存在密切的关系,上述因素每增长1%,煤炭产业产出将相应分别增长0.38%、0.32%、0.13%、-0.14%、0.08%、0.13%。四、通过构建“煤炭产业波动的多因素影响理论模型”对影响煤炭产业波动的各因素指标进行了预测,并结合煤炭产业发展实际,选取反映煤炭供求平衡状态的煤炭供需比指标作为预警的主要指标。分析表明,2016-2019年期间,我国煤炭供需比在1.05-1.10之间,处于供应偏松的状态,但都接近供应偏松的上限值;2019-2025年期间,我国煤炭供需比在1.10-1.16之间,处于供过于求的状态;到2030年时,我国煤炭供需比达到1.20,处于严重过剩状态。这说明,在现有发展路径下,煤炭供需波动将愈发剧烈,过剩压力将逐步增大,必须对煤炭产业进行提前预控,以此平抑煤炭产业可能出现的剧烈波动;通过对影响煤炭产业波动的各因素分析表明,对煤炭产业波动的预控,重点是调控煤炭产业资本的投入、煤炭产业竞争度和资源开发利润水平。基于以上研究结论,为平抑我国煤炭产业波动,重点从煤炭产业投资预控、煤炭产业竞争度预控和煤炭资源开发利润水平预控等方向提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:Coal is the main source of energy in China, and coal consumption accounts for about 70% of the total primary energy consumption in China. The pattern of energy consumption, which is mainly coal, will not change in the short term. For a long time, the coal industry has experienced great cyclical fluctuations, especially since 2012. The coal industry is facing serious imbalance between supply and demand, and the development of the industry is facing severe challenges. In order to ensure the energy security of our country, it is necessary to study the periodic fluctuation of the coal industry and its pre-control countermeasures. It is of great significance to guide energy decision-making and planning. On the basis of reviewing and absorbing the research results in the field of economic fluctuation of related industries, the paper combines the actual development of coal industry, This paper has carried on the beneficial research and the exploration to the theory and the practice of the periodic fluctuation of the coal industry in China. The main work and innovation of this paper are as follows: 1. The theory of the fluctuation of the economic cycle and the industrial cycle is expounded systematically, and the CF filtering method is adopted emphatically. This paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the indicators of economic variables that affect the development of China's coal industry. The analysis shows that the coal industry of our country has the characteristics of periodic development, there are 7 cycles in 1966-2013, each cycle is 6-9 years, the wave frequency is high and the amplitude is large. The development trend is large and the development of coal industry is unstable. Secondly, based on the Hotelling model, the "optimal path" model of coal industry development is constructed. There are "optimal paths" in the development of coal industry, and "optimal output" in the development of coal resources in various periods. This paper makes a comparative analysis of the actual situation of coal industry development in China and the conditions under which the coal industry is in the "optimal path". It is concluded that the development of China's coal industry is "not optimized" and deviates from the "optimal path", and there are invalid fluctuations. Thirdly, through the mechanism model of the fluctuation of the coal industry, we can find out the development of the national economy, the demand for coal, the policy of resource development, and the investment in the coal industry. The price of coal, the profit of resource development and the competition of industry are all the important factors that affect the fluctuation of coal industry. China's coal industry capital input, labor input, capital profit level, industrial competition degree, coal price, etc. There is a close relationship between the tax and fee factors of resource development and the output of the coal industry. For each increase of the above factors, the output of the coal industry will increase by 0.38 and 0.32 respectively. By constructing the "Multi-factor influence Theory Model of Coal Industry fluctuation", this paper forecasts the factors which affect the fluctuation of coal industry, and combines with the actual development of coal industry. The coal supply and demand ratio index, which reflects the equilibrium of coal supply and demand, is selected as the main index for early warning. The analysis shows that the coal supply and demand ratio in China is between 1.05-1.10 in 2016-2019, which is in a loose supply state. However, in the period of 2019-2025, the coal supply / demand ratio of our country is between 1.10-1.16, which is in a state of oversupply. By 2030, the coal supply and demand ratio of our country has reached 1.20, which is in a serious surplus state. This shows that, under the existing development path, The fluctuation of coal supply and demand will be more intense, and the excess pressure will gradually increase. It is necessary to pre-control the coal industry in advance in order to stabilize the violent fluctuation that may occur in the coal industry; through the analysis of the factors affecting the fluctuation of the coal industry, it is shown that, In order to control the fluctuation of coal industry, the emphasis is on regulating the input of coal industry capital, the competition degree of coal industry and the profit level of resource development. Based on the above conclusions, in order to stabilize the fluctuation of coal industry in our country, we should focus on the pre-control of coal industry investment. Policy suggestions are put forward in the direction of coal industry competition and coal resource development profit level.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.21

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