中国对外贸易商品结构对产业结构升级的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 22:36

本文关键词： 对外贸易商品结构货物贸易结构服务贸易结构产业结构升级　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：当前中国对外贸易结构与产业结构之间的同源关系存在一定的背离现象,彼此之间不能形成良性的互动升级关系,导致对中国的经济发展产生不良影响。因此,深入研究中国对外贸易结构对产业结构升级的影响,探索通过优化对外贸易结构来促进产业结构的调整升级具有很强的现实意义。针对上述问题,本文在深入分析对外贸易结构与产业结构关系、对外贸易商品结构对产业结构升级的影响机理的基础上,通过实证分析检验了中国对外贸易商品结构对产业结构升级的作用过程。首先,本文采用并改进了测度产业结构升级更加合理的指标——"产业结构合理化"和"产业结构高度化"进行实证研究。其次,本文把对外贸易商品结构的概念拓展为货物贸易结构以及被已有研究所忽略的服务贸易结构。最后,通过协整分析、误差修正模型和脉冲响应分析得到了对外贸易商品结构对产业结构升级的长期影响关系、短期调整效应和动态影响关系。实证检验结果显示:长期来看,中国货物贸易结构(GST)对产业结构升级具有正向的促进作用,但在短期中国货物贸易结构(GST)对产业结构升级影响并不显著;而服务贸易结构(SST)无论是长期、短期还是动态影响,对产业结构合理化和产业结构高度化或者是影响不显著,或者是有一定的抑制作用。该结果也证实了当前中国对外贸易结构与产业结构间具有一定背离现象的观点。由此本文得出以下结论:对于货物贸易,在长期中,由于工业制成品的净出口有助于中国产业结构升级,因此中国应该继续注重工业制成品等高附加值产品的出口,通过优化货物贸易结构达到促进产业升级的目的。但是此做法并不能在短期内有效地促进产业结构的优化升级,可见解决中国产业结构升级的问题需要站在长期发展的角度,统筹规划,稳步推进,不可一蹴而就。对于服务贸易结构,目前最紧迫的问题应首先继续发展服务贸易,进一步提高进出口贸易额的同时,摆脱多年来服务贸易逆差的困境。其次,继续保持中高技术服务贸易净出口的势头,扩大高附加值产品的贸易。
[Abstract]:At present, the homologous relationship between China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure is deviated from each other to a certain extent, and can not form a benign interactive and upgrading relationship between each other, which leads to a negative impact on China's economic development. It is of great practical significance to deeply study the influence of China's foreign trade structure on the upgrading of industrial structure and to explore how to optimize the structure of foreign trade to promote the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure. Based on the deep analysis of the relationship between foreign trade structure and industrial structure, the influence mechanism of foreign trade commodity structure on industrial structure upgrading, Through the empirical analysis, this paper examines the process of the effect of China's foreign trade commodity structure on the upgrading of industrial structure. First of all, This paper adopts and improves the more reasonable indicators to measure the upgrading of industrial structure-"rationalization of industrial structure" and "high level of industrial structure". Secondly, In this paper, the concept of commodity structure of foreign trade is extended to the structure of trade in goods and the structure of trade in services which has been neglected by existing research. The error correction model and impulse response analysis show that the foreign trade commodity structure has a long-term effect on industrial structure upgrading, a short-term adjustment effect and a dynamic impact relationship. China's goods trade structure (GST) has a positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, but in the short term China's goods trade structure (GST) has no significant effect on the upgrading of industrial structure, while the service trade structure (SST) has no significant impact on the industrial structure upgrading in the long, short or dynamic. It does not have a significant impact on the rationalization of the industrial structure and the upgrading of the industrial structure, The results also confirm the view that there is a certain deviation between China's foreign trade structure and industrial structure. The following conclusions are drawn in this paper: for trade in goods, in the long run, Since net exports of manufactured goods contribute to the upgrading of China's industrial structure, China should continue to focus on exports of high value-added products such as manufactured goods. By optimizing the structure of trade in goods, we can achieve the purpose of promoting industrial upgrading. However, this approach cannot effectively promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in the short term. Therefore, it can be seen that to solve the problem of upgrading the industrial structure in China, we need to stand at a long-term development point of view. As for the structure of trade in services, the most pressing issues at present should first continue to develop trade in services, while further increasing the volume of trade between imports and exports. Second, we should continue to maintain the momentum of net exports of medium-to-high-tech services trade and expand trade in high-value-added products.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.6;F121.3

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