产业结构升级与大学生就业联动效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-02 17:31

本文选题：产业结构升级　切入点：大学生就业　出处：《南京财经大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1999年高校扩招,到2014年高校毕业生突破727万人,仅仅十几年的时间,大学生就业完成了从"包分配"到"就业难"的痛苦转变,连续几年的"最难就业季"让大学生就业成为各级政府面临的重要问题。相关学者也对此作了大量的研究,其中产业结构升级被列为解决大学生就业难问题的重要举措之一;也有学者认为,大学生就业也能反过来促进产业结构的升级。但大多学者都是对两个问题做单向研究,对两个变量之间可能存在的内生性或相互影响研究较少,其评估结果的有效性有待考究。因此,本文通过建立联立方程模型,运用三阶段最小二乘法进行系统估计,以有效估计产业结构升级与大学生就业之间的相互影响,期望对政府决策提供理论参考。文章首先从理论上分析了产业结构升级与大学生就业之间的相关性,并对2001-2012年全国与东中西分区域的产业占比与大学生就业比例数据进行列表汇总,并做出趋势图,发现二三产业占比与大学生就业比例发展趋势相近。然后,利用这12年间32个省市的面板数据,分别对产业结构升级方程和大学生就业方程进行固定效应单方程估计发现:产业结构升级与大学生就业之间并没有明显的因果关系。但通过三阶段最小二乘法进行系统性回归发现:一方面,产业结构升级能显著促进大学生就业,但作用效果较小;另一方面,大学生就业能显著促进产业结构升级,且作用效果很大。最后,为了比较区域之间的差异和保证回归结果的稳健性,文章分别对东、中、西部产业结构数据与大学生就业比例进行三阶段最小二乘估计发现:显著性与全国数据结果一致,从而证明了产业结构升级与大学生就业之间确实是联立互动的。对回归系数进行比较分析后,可得到结论:中国目前没有显著的技能偏向型技术进步,并且区域之间两者之间的作用效果存在显著的差异。在上述研究分析的基础上,本文对促进大学生就业和促进产业结构升级提出了相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:From 1999 to 2014, the number of college graduates has exceeded 7.27 million. In just over ten years, college students' employment has completed the painful transformation from "distribution" to "difficult employment". The "most difficult Employment season" for several years has made the employment of college students an important problem faced by governments at all levels. Related scholars have also done a lot of research on it, among which the upgrading of industrial structure has been listed as one of the important measures to solve the problem of employment difficulties of college students. Some scholars believe that the employment of college students can also promote the upgrading of the industrial structure in turn. However, most scholars do one-way research on the two problems, but there is little research on the possible endogenous or interactive influence between the two variables. The validity of the evaluation results remains to be studied. Therefore, by establishing the simultaneous equation model and using the three-stage least square method to estimate the interaction between the industrial structure upgrading and the employment of college students, this paper makes an effective estimation of the interaction between the industrial structure upgrading and the employment of college students. This paper first analyzes the correlation between the upgrading of industrial structure and the employment of college students. And from 2001 to 2012, the paper makes a summary of the data of industrial proportion and employment ratio of college students in China and East and West subregions, and makes a trend map, and finds that the ratio of secondary and tertiary industries is similar to the employment ratio of college students. Then, Using panel data from 32 provinces and cities over these 12 years, The fixed effect single equation estimation of industrial structure upgrading equation and college students employment equation respectively shows that there is no obvious causal relationship between industrial structure upgrading and college students' employment, but through the three-stage least square method, it is found that there is no obvious causal relationship between industrial structure upgrading and college students' employment. Systematic regression found that: on the one hand, The upgrading of industrial structure can significantly promote the employment of college students, but the effect is relatively small. On the other hand, the employment of college students can significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure, and the effect is very great. Finally, In order to compare the regional differences and ensure the robustness of the regression results, the paper makes a three-stage least square estimation of the industrial structure data and the employment ratio of college students in the east, middle and west of the country, and finds that the results are consistent with the results of the national data. By comparing and analyzing the regression coefficient, we can conclude that there is no significant technological progress in China at present. And there are significant differences between the two regions. On the basis of the above research and analysis, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations to promote the employment of college students and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.2

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