基于Lotka-Volterra模型的我国三次产业、碳排放与经济发展之间动态竞争关系实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 08:51

本文选题：三次产业　切入点：碳排放　出处：《生态经济》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国三次产业、碳排放与经济发展之间的协调互动,对我国实现低碳绿色发展战略具有十分重要的现实意义。选取《中国统计年鉴》1980—2014年的三次产业、碳排放与经济发展的相关数据,采用"Lotka-Volterra"模型对三者之间的动态竞争关系进行深入研究,并借助生物学种间竞争分析方法,考察"三次产业—碳排放—GDP"之间的关系随时间的演变轨迹并进行预测。结果显示:我国三次产业、碳排放与经济发展三者之间主要存在捕食、共生、共栖、纯竞争四种竞争关系;中国的碳排放与经济发展具有直接的正向关系,并对三次产业增长都具有正向作用;在三次产业中,第三产业对整体产业结构优化具有一定的积极作用,并促进中国经济整体发展。若要实现低碳绿色发展,应改变传统的经济发展方式,注重三次产业结构的相互协调。
[Abstract]:The coordination and interaction between carbon emissions and economic development in the three industries of our country is of great practical significance to the realization of low carbon green development strategy. The three industries of China Statistical Yearbook 1980-2014 are selected. Based on the data of carbon emission and economic development, the dynamic competitive relationship among the three was studied by using "Lotka-Volterra" model, and the biological interspecific competition analysis method was used. The relationship between "three industries, carbon emissions and GDP" is investigated and predicted over time. The results show that the three industries, carbon emissions and economic development in China are mainly predatory, symbiotic and common. China's carbon emissions have a direct positive relationship with economic development, and all of them have positive effects on the growth of three industries; among the three industries, the tertiary industry plays a positive role in optimizing the overall industrial structure. If we want to realize low-carbon green development, we should change the traditional mode of economic development and pay attention to the coordination of the three industrial structures.
【作者单位】：新疆大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：新疆大学丝路博士研究生创新基金项目“基于供求视角下中国企业走出去优先领域研究:以中国与中亚经济合作为例”(XDSL16BS01)
【分类号】：F124;X2

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