美国大豆倾销对中国产业损害的认定与评估——基于可计算局部均衡COMPAS模型的分析

发布时间：2018-03-20 21:07

本文选题：大豆倾销　切入点：产业损害　出处：《商业经济与管理》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章将倾销边际变量引入局部均衡的COMPAS模型,从产业层面深入揭示倾销行为影响进出口国生产、进出口等经济活动的内在机理。在此基础上,将局部均衡COMPAS模型可计算化,利用2011-2015年大豆生产与贸易的相关数据,模拟分析美国大豆在华倾销行为对中美两国及有关国家大豆生产、销售与收益的影响大小。模拟结果表明:美国大豆倾销行为对中国大豆产业造成了实质性损害,国产大豆市场份额减少约10.5%,价格下降约12.1%,产量降低约14.4%,收益损失约22.1%;倾销行为对美国大豆行业发展有利,市场份额、产出与收益均大幅增加;倾销行为具有"挤压效应",使其他国家非倾销企业遭受经济损失。基于研究结论,文章最后为中国大豆行业应对贸易摩擦提出了一些参考性建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the marginal variables of dumping are introduced into the COMPAS model of partial equilibrium, and the internal mechanism of dumping affecting economic activities such as production, import and export in import and export countries is deeply revealed from the industrial level. On this basis, the local equilibrium COMPAS model can be calculated. Based on the relevant data of soybean production and trade between 2011 and 2015, this paper simulates and analyzes the soybean production caused by the dumping behavior of American soybeans in China to China, the United States and other countries concerned. The simulation results show that the dumping of soybean in the United States has caused substantial damage to the soybean industry in China. The market share of domestic soybean decreased by 10.5%, the price decreased about 12.1b, the yield decreased about 14.4m, and the loss of income was about 22.1.The dumping behavior was beneficial to the development of the soybean industry in the United States, and the market share, output and income increased significantly. Dumping has the "squeezing effect", which causes the non-dumping enterprises in other countries to suffer economic losses. Based on the conclusion of the research, this paper puts forward some reference suggestions for China's soybean industry to deal with trade friction.
【作者单位】：浙江工商大学金融学院;浙江工商大学现代商贸研究中心;南京审计大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：浙江省哲学社会科学基金项目“国外对华反倾销的经济效应:基于行业层面与异质企业双重视角研究”(11JCYJ02YB) 教育部省部共建人文社会科学重点研究基地浙江工商大学现代商贸研究中心项目“国外对华出口反倾销的经济效应及应对策略研究”(12JDSM14YB)
【分类号】：F313.7;F752.02;F757.12

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