基于WIO-MFA模型的中国产业间铁元素流动分析

发布时间：2018-03-27 11:06

本文选题：投入产出　切入点：WIO　出处：《山东大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：自十八世纪中叶工业革命在英国率先爆发以来,全世界在经历了漫长的农耕文明之后,逐渐开始进入机器化的工业时代。而随着工业革命的逐渐深化,全球也开始进入了资源大消耗的时代,尤其是钢铁业在现代文明的发展过程中贡献了巨大的作用,这也使得钢铁业开始消耗大量的铁资源。进入到二十一世纪以后,全球的矿产资源,尤其是传统型资源,如铁资源、煤炭、石油等,都开始面临资源逐渐枯竭的尴尬局面。在目前还没有找到足够多的替代性能源之前,思考如何使传统型资源(在本文中具体指铁资源)能够进入一种循环利用的模式就成为了一个越来越重要的课题。而要想使得铁资源循环利用,一个重要的前提是要明晰铁资源在产业间的流动路径。因此,本论文正是基于这样的背景开始创作的。当前中国的工业化进程正在加快,工业化的发展势必会消耗大量的铁资源,因此,这篇论文的目的就是通过编制中国2007年铁元素投入产出表(FeIO)来分析中国的铁元素在不同产业间的流动情况。本论文的研究方法是基于废弃物投入与产出的物质流分析模型(WIO-MFA). WIO-MFA模型最初是由日本经济学家Shinichiro Nakamura和Kenichi Nakajima于2005年最先提出的,并且在日本获得了成功地应用。铁元素的投入产出表(FeIO)展示了铁这种元素在国民经济相关部门之间的流动情况,如原始资源部门、原料部门、产成品部门以及二次资源等相关部门。要想分析铁元素在不同产业间的具体流动情况,一个重要的前提是获得高区分度的铁元素投入产出表(FeIO)。因此,为了获得具有较高区分度的FeIO,本论文引入了一种非调查方法的编译方式,而这种编译方式是基于目前可以利用到的相关投入产出表,这些投入产出表都是经过国家统计部门的严格审核之后发布的。因此这就保证了本论文编制的铁元素投入产出表(FeIO)具有很高的解析度。在成功编制中国2007年铁元素投入产出表之后,本论文的下一个目标是分析铁元素在中国国民经济不同部门间的流动情况。为了阐明蕴含在FeIO中的铁元素物质流分析,本论文采用了一种新的方法——主路径分析。通过主路径分析方法,我们在论文中归纳出了关于铁元素的流动路径桑基图。铁元素的流动路径桑基图展示了铁元素对于任何给定的产业循环起始点和结束点的最相关的流动路径。同时,主路径分析方法也揭示了铁元素在不同产业间的制造程度。
[Abstract]:Since the industrial revolution first broke out in England in the middle of the eighteenth century, after a long history of farming civilization, the whole world has gradually entered into a mechanized industrial age, and with the deepening of the industrial revolution, The world also began to enter the era of great consumption of resources, especially the steel industry in the development of modern civilization has contributed a huge role, which also made the steel industry began to consume a large number of iron resources. Into the 21 century, Global mineral resources, especially traditional ones, such as iron, coal, oil and so on, are beginning to face an awkward situation of gradual depletion. It has become more and more important to think about how to make traditional resources (in this paper specifically refer to iron resources) into a mode of recycling. An important prerequisite is to clarify the flow path of iron resources between industries. Therefore, this paper is based on this background. The development of industrialization is bound to consume a large amount of iron resources. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the flow of iron in different industries in China by compiling the iron input-output table of 2007 in China. The research method of this paper is based on the material flow of waste input and output. The WIO-MFA model was first proposed by Japanese economists Shinichiro Nakamura and Kenichi Nakajima in 2005. And it has been successfully applied in Japan. The input-output table of iron shows the flow of iron among the relevant sectors of the national economy, such as the raw resources sector, the raw material sector, If you want to analyze the specific flow of iron between different industries, an important prerequisite is to obtain a highly differentiated iron input-output table. In order to obtain FeIOs with high degree of discrimination, this paper introduces a non-survey compilation method, which is based on the relevant input-output tables available at present. These input-output tables are issued after strict examination by the national statistical office. Therefore, this ensures that the iron input-output table compiled in this paper has a very high resolution. After the prime input-output table, The next objective of this paper is to analyze the flow of iron between different sectors of China's national economy. In this paper, a new method, the main path analysis, is adopted. In this paper, we generalize the flow path of the iron element, which shows the most relevant flow path of the iron element to any given starting and ending point of the industrial cycle. At the same time, The main path analysis method also reveals the manufacturing degree of iron in different industries.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.31;F224

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