产业政策、银行贷款羊群行为与产能过剩

发布时间：2018-04-05 10:54

本文选题：银行贷款羊群行为　切入点：产能过剩　出处：《河南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在经历了30多年持续快速增长后,工业经济领域长期存在的产能过剩问题成为中国经济发展“稳中提质”的一大掣肘。国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要对此问题高度关注,明确提出要建立健全防范和化解产能过剩的长效机制。现有文献在分析产能过剩原因时,大都把研究重心放在了企业本身和地方政府上,忽略了另一个重要参与人——银行部门。在我国,银行部门与政府部门关系密切。因此,银行贷款更易受产业政策的影响导致产生羊群行为。基于此,本文主要研究银行贷款羊群行为及其对产能过剩的影响机制。首先,在构建理论模型的基础上,选取16家中国上市银行2005-2014年的行业贷款数据,采用LSV模型检验了银行贷款羊群行为的存在性;其次,使用数据包络法(DEA)测算我国37个工业行业产能利用率,同时对二者关系进行实证检验;最后,检验产业政策是否是我国银行贷款羊群行为影响产能过剩的调节变量。研究发现:(1)我国银行贷款存在羊群行为。根据每个银行对行业贷款增加(减少)的数量或比例计算的银行贷款羊群行为整体检验的结果分别为15.92%(?)、19.9%(?),这表明在中国银行贷款存在明显的羊群行为。(2)我国工业产能过剩现象严重。整体来看,2005-2014年工业总体的产能过剩指数均值为0.425,呈现一个先下降后上升的趋势,在2008年工业整体的产能过剩指数为0.340,达到最低点,此时的工业总体产能利用率最高。(3)银行贷款羊群行为会显著影响产能过剩。行业的银行贷款羊群行为大小与该行业的产能过剩指数正相关。格兰杰因果检验结果也进一步表明银行贷款羊群行为是导致产能过剩的原因之一。(4)产业政策是我国银行贷款羊群行为影响产能过剩的调节变量。受产业政策支持的行业,银行贷款羊群行为对产能过剩的影响越显著。基于对实证结果的分析,本文认为可以从以下三方面着手,化解工业产能过剩现象:一是规范信息披露,弱化银行贷款羊群行为;二是从银行贷款角度入手,加快治理产能过剩,坚持“走出去”战略;三是合理调整产业政策,把握好“度”。本文的研究有助于深化银行贷款羊群行为理论,有助于从银行贷款羊群行为角度认识我国产能过剩形成原因,同时拓展了我国产能过剩的形成机理研究,能够为我国化解过剩产能提供政策建议。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of sustained and rapid growth, the problem of overcapacity in the industrial economy has become a major constraint in China's economic development.The 13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development pays close attention to this problem and puts forward clearly the establishment of a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve overcapacity.In analyzing the causes of overcapacity, most of the existing literatures focus on the enterprises themselves and local governments, ignoring another important participant-the banking sector.In China, the banking sector is closely related to government departments.Therefore, bank loans are more susceptible to industrial policy, resulting in herd behavior.Based on this, this paper mainly studies the herd behavior of bank loans and its influence mechanism on overcapacity.Firstly, based on the theoretical model, this paper selects 16 Chinese listed banks' industry loan data from 2005 to 2014, and uses LSV model to test the existence of herding behavior in bank loans.Using data Envelopment method (DEAA) to calculate the capacity utilization ratio of 37 industrial industries in China, and to test the relationship between them. Finally, to test whether the industrial policy is the regulatory variable of the herd behavior of bank loans to affect the overcapacity.The study found that: 1) herding behavior exists in bank loans in China.The overall test results of herd behavior of bank loans calculated according to the number or proportion of increase (decrease) of bank loans to industry are 15.92% and 19.9% respectively, which indicates that there is obvious herding behavior in bank loans in China.The phenomenon of excess energy is serious.Overall, the average industrial overcapacity index for 2005-2014 was 0.425, showing a downward trend and then an upward trend. In 2008, the overcapacity index of the industry as a whole was 0.340, reaching its lowest point.At this time, the industrial total capacity utilization ratio is the highest. 3) the herd behavior of bank loans will significantly affect overcapacity.The size of the sector's bank lending herd behavior is positively correlated with the industry's overcapacity index.Granger causality test also shows that herd behavior is one of the causes of overcapacity.In industries supported by industrial policy, bank lending herd behavior has a more significant impact on overcapacity.Speed up the management of overcapacity, adhere to the "go out" strategy; third, reasonable adjustment of industrial policies, grasp the "degree."The research in this paper is helpful to deepen the herding behavior theory of bank loans, to understand the causes of overcapacity in China from the perspective of herding behavior of bank loans, and to expand the research on the formation mechanism of overcapacity in China.To provide policy advice for China to resolve excess capacity.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F120;F832.4;F124

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