我国产业结构变动对经济波动的影响——基于空间计量模型的研究

发布时间：2018-04-14 22:30

本文选题：产业结构 + 经济规模　；参考：《技术经济与管理研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：文章基于1978-2014年全国31个省份的数据,分别利用普通面板模型和空间计量模型考察了产业结构变动对中国经济波动的影响。实证研究结果表明,中国经济增长速度和产业结构变动在总体上存在着空间相关性,产业结构变动是中国经济波动的重要原因,并且存在"结构性减速"现象。具体而言,普通面板模型和空间误差模型的回归结果都证实了中国经济发展过程中存在"结构性加速"和"结构性减速"这两种不同的发展阶段。而当前的经济减速问题,归根结底是结构性原因引起的,人口结构的自然演变会引发就业结构、消费结构和投资结构等其他多种结构性经济变量的相应变化,进而引起经济结构性减速。文章所得结论的启示是,在遵循产业结构自然演进规律的同时,应积极推进产业内部结构的优化。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 31 provinces in China from 1978 to 2014, this paper investigates the impact of industrial structure changes on China's economic fluctuation by using the general panel model and the spatial econometric model.The empirical results show that there is a spatial correlation between the economic growth rate and the change of industrial structure in China as a whole. The change of industrial structure is an important reason for the fluctuation of China's economy, and there is a phenomenon of "structural deceleration".In particular, the regression results of general panel model and spatial error model both confirm that there are two different stages of economic development in China: "structural acceleration" and "structural deceleration".In the final analysis, the current economic slowdown is caused by structural reasons. The natural evolution of the population structure will lead to corresponding changes in the employment structure, consumption structure, investment structure and other structural economic variables.This in turn leads to a structural slowdown in the economy.The enlightenment of this paper is that while following the law of natural evolution of industrial structure, we should actively promote the optimization of industrial internal structure.
【作者单位】：河南省人民政府发展研究中心;
【分类号】：F121.3;F124.8

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