税制结构对产业结构的影响分析

发布时间：2018-04-16 18:50

本文选题：税制结构 + 产业结构　；参考：《浙江财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：经过三十多年的改革开放和经济体制改革,我国经济一直保持较快增长,总量不断上升,同时,产业结构也经历了重大变化,2012年第三产业比重首次超过第二产业比重,产业结构发生了关键性转变。但是,与发达国家相比仍有较大差距,节能减排的形势依然严峻,因此,加快我国产业结构调整和优化升级,进一步推动中国经济又好又快发展,是我国必须面对的课题。国家“十三五”规划明确提出构建产业新体系,大力推进农业现代化等要求。市场机制健全时,产业结构可以完全依靠市场进行调节。但是,如果市场失灵,则不能实现经济的自动调整,此时就需要政府的介入。税收是国家进行宏观调控的重要手段,在调节产业结构方面具有突出优势。西方经济学者很早就开始了对经济增长、产业结构与税制优化问题的研究,研究已经表明,税收可以影响经济主体的行为,政府可以借此发挥其宏观调控作用。目前我国正处在产业结构、税制结构优化调整的关键时期,研究税制结构对产业结构调整的影响,对于确保两者协调发展,促进产业结构优化升级目标的实现具有重要意义。我国目前的税制结构是在1994年分税制改革的基础上建立起来的,虽然多年来一直不断改革和完善,但依然存在很多深层次的制度问题,流转税比重依然过高,所得税的调节作用未能有效发挥,“双主体”税制模式仍未真正建立。这些问题不仅影响税收职能的发挥,而且还会阻碍产业结构的调整。因此本文就我国现有税制结构对产业结构的影响展开系统研究,并提出政策建议。首先,整理了税制结构与产业结构的相关理论,包括税制结构的概念界定和税制结构优化理论、产业结构相关理论、税制结构对产业结构的影响机制及税制在产业结构调整中的局限性;其次在运用图表对我国税制结构与产业结构的现状及问题进行了描述统计,这一部分主要从以下三个方面展开:我国税制结构变迁及现状分析,产业结构演变及现状分析,税制结构与产业结构演进的关联分析;接着建立计量模型实证分析了税制结构与产业结构之间的关系,根据税制结构的税系结构与税种结构两个层次,本文实证分析分为两个部分:首先本文选取了流转税比重、所得税比重、产业结构三个指标建立VAR模型,选用了1994-2014年的数据在所建模型的基础上进行协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解,对我国现有税系结构对产业结构的影响进行量化分析;其次,为了研究税种结构对产业结构的影响,选取增值税比重、消费税比重、营业税比重、企业所得税比重、个人所得税比重和产业结构六个指标再次建立VAR模型进行量化分析。经过研究得出结论:税制结构与产业结构之间具有长期均衡关系,且税制结构对产业结构的影响是滞后的,流转税对产业结构一直呈现负向影响,所得税在短期内表现为正向,但长期内是负向,而且流转税对产业结构变动的影响大于所得税。不同税种对产业结构的影响存在差异,增值税与消费税对产业结构的影响短期内表现为正向,长期内出现微弱负向影响;营业税对产业结构的影响总体表现为负向影响,企业所得税表现为正向,个人所得税短期内表现为微弱负向影响,长期内表现为正向影响。由产业结构变动的贡献率分析可知,增值税贡献率最高,营业税次之,消费税贡献率总体来说不高,企业所得税与个人所得税的贡献率都不高,说明所得税对产业结构调整的效应没有得到充分发挥。最后本文根据前述研究,提出了针对性的政策建议:完善信息反馈机制;继续推进结构性减税;逐步降低流转税;有效提高所得税;完善配套措施。
[Abstract]:After thirty years of reform and opening-up and economic reform, China's economy has maintained rapid growth, rising quantity, at the same time, the industrial structure has undergone major changes, in 2012 the proportion of the third industry more than the proportion of the second industry for the first time, the key to change the industrial structure. However, there is still a large gap compared with developed countries, energy saving and emission reduction the situation is still grim, therefore, to speed up China's industrial restructuring and upgrading, to further promote the China sound and rapid economic development, China must face the issue. "13th Five-Year" clearly put forward to build a new system of industry, and vigorously promote the requirements of agricultural modernization. The market mechanism, the industrial structure can completely rely on the market adjusted. However, if the market failure, and can realize automatic adjustment of the economy, the need of government intervention. The tax is for the state macro An important means of regulation, in has outstanding advantages in adjusting the industrial structure. The western economists began very early on economic growth, industrial structure and tax system optimization research, studies have shown that the tax can influence the behavior of economic agents, the government can play the role of macro-control. At present our country is in the industrial structure the optimization of tax system structure, a critical period of adjustment, effect of tax structure on the industrial structure adjustment, to ensure the coordinated development, promote the optimization has important significance to upgrade the industrial structure. The current tax system structure of our country is based on the reform of the tax system in 1994, although over the years has been continuously reform and perfect but there are still many problems, the system of deep level, the proportion of turnover tax is still too high, the income tax regulation failed to play an effective role, the "double subject" tax System has not really established. These problems not only affect the function of Taxation, but also hinder the adjustment of industrial structure. In this paper the influence of China's existing tax structure on the industrial structure is systematically studied, and put forward some policy suggestions. First, organize the relevant theory of tax structure and industrial structure, including the definition of the concept of tax structure and the optimization of tax system structure theory, the theory of industrial structure, the limitation of tax structure on the impact of industrial structure and mechanism of tax system in the adjustment of industrial structure; secondly in the use of charts on the current situation and problems of the tax system and the industrial structure of our country has carried on the description statistics, this part is mainly from the following three aspects: the analysis of the tax system the structure change and the present situation in our country, and analyzed the present situation of industrial structure evolution, analysis of evolution of tax structure and industrial structure; then establish empirical model Analysis of the relationship between tax structure and industrial structure, according to the two levels of tax structure and tax structure and tax structure, this paper is divided into two parts: firstly this paper selected the proportion of tax, the proportion of income tax, the industrial structure of the three indicators to establish the VAR model, using 1994-2014 years of data on the basis of the model on the Grainger cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, make quantitative analysis on the impact of China's current tax system structure on industrial structure; secondly, in order to study the tax structure the structure of industry, select the proportion of value-added tax, consumption tax proportion, the proportion of corporate income tax. The proportion of tax, personal income tax and the proportion of the industrial structure of the six index again to establish VAR model for quantitative analysis. After the study concluded that: there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between tax structure and industrial structure, and Effect of tax structure on the industrial structure is lagging behind, the turnover tax on the industrial structure has been negative, the income tax in the short term is positive, but in the long term is negative, but the turnover tax is greater than the income tax effect on the change of industrial structure. There are differences in effects of taxes on industrial structure, influence of value added tax and the consumption tax on the industrial structure in the short term is positive, the long term weak negative impact; business tax impact on the industrial structure of the overall performance of negative effect, the enterprise income tax is positive, the personal income tax in the short term is weak negative effect, long term analysis showed positive effects. By the change of industrial structure contribution rate, the highest contribution rate of value-added tax business tax, the consumption tax contribution rate generally is not high, the corporate income tax and personal income tax contribution rate is not high, that the income tax on the industry The effect of structural adjustment has not been brought into full play. Finally, based on the above research, this paper puts forward specific policy recommendations: improving information feedback mechanism, continuing to promote structural tax reduction, gradually reducing turnover tax, effectively improving income tax and improving supporting measures.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.42;F121.3

【参考文献】