碳减排形势下的中国产业结构转变预测与分析

发布时间：2018-04-21 05:49

本文选题：投入产出分析 + 产业结构优化　；参考：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前全球环境持续恶化,尤其国内雾霾温室效应等环境问题已经成为我们日常生活工作所要必须面对的问题。如何减缓并抑制全球变暖,保护我们赖以生存的环境,已经成为全球讨论的焦点。造成这些问题的主要原因是化石能源的消耗,随着全球经济发展,以及工业化进程的加快,能源消耗不断增加,污染物排放速度加快。化石燃料燃烧主要排放物是二氧化碳、氮氧化物以及可吸入颗粒物的污染物。这些污染物是造成温室效应、酸雨、雾霾等时下常见空气污染的主要诱因。温室效应已经不是某一国家或地区所能解决的,这需要全世界人民共同努力。然而经济高速发展离不开能源,如何权衡能源发展与保护环境之间的平衡,确定全世界各国碳减排责任,从而制定碳减排目标是一个饱受争议的问题。由于不同国家所处的发展阶段不同,发达国家已经经历过工业化改革,碳排放量已经过了高峰时期,而发展中国家则第一、二产业占国民经济的比重较高,相对碳排放量也居于很高水平,因此该如何界定碳排放责任尚没有定论。国内各产业之间的结构优化,在控制环境污染的前提下,如何保证经济增长速度,调整和优化国内产业结构,是本文研究的重点。本文通过统计我国各产业能源消耗数据,根据投入产出表,从消费者的角度计算出各个产业部门的碳排放责任,分析各产业部门碳减排压力,从根源控制碳排放,从而达到产业结构优化的目的。通过分析得知控制第一、二产业的发展,大力促进第一、二产业向第三产业转型,可以有效的降低碳排放量,在经济高速健康发展的同时达到碳减排目标。本文进一步对我国历年的碳排放量数据进行处理,将产业部门归类为第一产业、第二产业、第三产业和居民日常生活消费。通过对数据进行降维处理,建立GM (1,1)模型对我国不同政策影响力度下的各产业规模发展进行预测。然后根据预测结果,给出产业结构改革政策建议,根据灰色预测模型给出在不同的政府产业结构改革力度下,未来产业结构的变化。
[Abstract]:At present, the global environment continues to deteriorate, especially the domestic haze Greenhouse Effect and other environmental problems have become our daily life must face the problem. How to slow down and control global warming and protect the environment on which we live has become the focus of global discussion. The main cause of these problems is the consumption of fossil energy. With the development of the global economy and the acceleration of industrialization, the energy consumption is increasing and the emission rate of pollutants is accelerating. The main emissions from fossil fuel combustion are carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and pollutants from respirable particulates. These pollutants are the main causes of air pollution such as Greenhouse Effect, acid rain and haze. Greenhouse Effect is beyond the reach of a single country or region. It requires the concerted efforts of people all over the world. However, the rapid development of economy can not be separated from energy. How to balance the balance between energy development and environmental protection, determine the responsibility of carbon emission reduction in countries all over the world, so as to formulate carbon emission reduction targets is a controversial issue. Because different countries are at different stages of development, developed countries have already gone through industrial reforms, carbon emissions have passed the peak period, while developing countries have the first and second industries accounting for a higher proportion of the national economy. Relative carbon emissions are also very high, so how to define the responsibility for carbon emissions has not yet been decided. On the premise of controlling environmental pollution, how to ensure the speed of economic growth and adjust and optimize the domestic industrial structure is the focus of this paper. According to the input-output table, this paper calculates the responsibility of carbon emission of each industrial sector from the perspective of consumers, analyzes the pressure of carbon emission reduction in various industrial sectors, and controls carbon emissions from the root causes, according to the data of energy consumption of various industries in China, according to the input-output table. In order to achieve the purpose of industrial structure optimization. Through analysis, it is found that controlling the development of the first and second industries and promoting the transformation of the first and second industries to the tertiary industry can effectively reduce carbon emissions and achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions at the same time of rapid and healthy economic development. This paper further deals with the carbon emission data of China over the years and classifies the industrial sector as the primary industry, the secondary industry, the tertiary industry and the daily life consumption of the residents. Through the dimensionality reduction of the data, the GM 1 / 1) model is established to predict the development of the industrial scale under the influence of different policies in China. Then according to the forecast results, the policy suggestions of industrial structure reform are given, and the future changes of industrial structure under different government industrial structure reform dynamics are given according to the grey prediction model.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X22;F124

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