我国对外贸易结构与产业结构的关系分析

发布时间：2018-05-14 05:06

本文选题：贸易结构 + 产业结构　；参考：《重庆大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济取得了举世瞩目的成就,贸易格局和产业格局发生了相当大的变化,外贸发展成为中国经济增长的“三驾马车”之一,对中国经济的稳定、持续增长发挥着至关重要的作用。我国的对外贸易结构和产业结构有所优化,但也存在一定的弊端,在经济发展方式转变和国际环境发生变化的情况下,调整好产业结构和贸易结构关系以使外贸和产业结构形成良性互动成为实现我国经济快速、可持续发展的重要议题。本文首先通过对我国改革开放以来对外贸易结构与产业结构的变化趋势进行了相关阐述,采用结构偏离度方法,分析了我国对外货物贸易结构与实物产业结构之间的偏离趋势和对外服务贸易结构与服务产业结构之间的偏离趋势。最后,通过构造VAR模型,运用协整方程、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应、方差分解等技术方法对我国货物贸易结构变化与实物产业结构变化的关系、服务贸易结构变化与服务产业结构变化的关系分别作出了实证检验分析。通过相关分析主要得出以下几个结论:第一,服务贸易相对货物贸易发展相对滞后,且服务贸易结构不合理,传统服务项目仍然占据主导地位,新兴服务项目虽然获得快速的增长,但份额仍然较小。第二,总体上我国货物贸易结构与实物产业结构之间存在一定的偏离,但两者呈收敛态势,偏离程度越来越小;服务贸易结构与服务产业结构之间也呈偏离状态,且两者呈发散态势,偏离程度越来越大。第三,通过实证得出:我国货物贸易进出口结构的变化与产业结构的变化之间存在长期均衡关系,出口结构变化与产业结构变化呈正向关系,进口结构变化与产业结构变化呈反向关系;实物产业结构变化与货物贸易出口结构变化存在单向因果关系,产业结构变化是出口结构变化的Granger原因;实物产业结构的变化主要是受自身的影响,货物贸易进出口结构变化对实物产业结构变化影响较小。实物产业结构变化对货物贸易出口结构变化的影响相对较大,对货物贸易进口结构变化的影响相对较小。我国服务贸易进出口结构的变化与服务产业结构的变化之间存在长期均衡关系,进出口结构变化与产业结构变化都呈正向关系。服务产业结构变化与服务贸易结构变化存在单向因果关系,服务贸易出口结构变化是产业结构变化的Granger原因,服务产业结构变化与服务贸易进口结构变化不存在因果关系;服务产业结构的变化受服务贸易出口结构变化的影响较大。服务贸易出口结构的变化主要受自身的影响,服务产业结构变化对服务贸易进口结构变化的影响要大于对出口结构变化的影响。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has made remarkable achievements, the pattern of trade and industry has changed considerably, the development of foreign trade has become one of the "troika" of China's economic growth, which will stabilize the Chinese economy. Sustained growth plays a vital role. The foreign trade structure and industrial structure of our country have been optimized, but there are also some drawbacks. With the change of economic development mode and the change of international environment, Adjusting the relationship between industrial structure and trade structure in order to make foreign trade and industrial structure form a benign interaction has become an important issue to realize the rapid and sustainable development of China's economy. Firstly, this paper expounds the changing trend of foreign trade structure and industrial structure since the reform and opening up, and adopts the method of structural deviation. This paper analyzes the deviation trend between the structure of China's external trade in goods and the structure of physical industry and the structure of foreign trade in services and the structure of service industry. Finally, by constructing VAR model, using cointegration equation Granger causality test, impulse response, variance decomposition and other technical methods, the relationship between the change of goods trade structure and the change of physical industrial structure is discussed. The relationship between the change of service trade structure and the change of service industry structure is analyzed empirically. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the development of trade in services relative to trade in goods is lagging behind, and the structure of trade in services is unreasonable, and traditional service items still occupy a dominant position. Emerging services have enjoyed rapid growth, but their share is still small. Secondly, there is a certain deviation between the goods trade structure and the physical industrial structure in China, but the deviation degree between them is becoming smaller and smaller, and the service trade structure and the service industry structure are also deviating from each other. And both show divergent trend, the degree of deviation is increasing. Thirdly, it is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the change of import and export structure of China's goods trade and the change of industrial structure, while the change of export structure is positively related to the change of industrial structure. The change of import structure and the change of industrial structure have a reverse relationship, the change of physical industrial structure and the change of export structure of goods have one-way causality, and the change of industrial structure is the Granger reason of the change of export structure. The change of physical industrial structure is mainly influenced by itself, and the change of import and export structure of goods trade has little effect on the change of physical industrial structure. The change of physical industrial structure has relatively greater influence on the change of export structure of goods trade than on the change of import structure of goods trade. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the change of import and export structure of China's service trade and the change of service industrial structure, and the change of import and export structure is positively related to the change of industrial structure. There is a one-way causality between the change of service industry structure and the change of service trade structure. The change of service trade export structure is the Granger cause of industrial structure change, but there is no causality between service industry structure change and service trade import structure change. The change of service industry structure is greatly affected by the change of export structure of service trade. The change of export structure of service trade is mainly influenced by itself, and the change of service industry structure has more influence on the change of import structure of service trade than on the change of export structure.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F121.3;F752

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