山东省外贸商品结构与产业结构变动关系的分析研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 01:02

本文选题：贸易商品结构 + 产业结构　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着经济全球化的深化与推进,生产要素的流动更加频繁,国际间实物形式和非实物形式的贸易实现了快速发展,交流渠道也得到了拓宽。关于对外贸易与产业结构的研究一直是国际贸易学和产业经济学研究的焦点。山东省作为东部沿海省份,依托空间地理优势和省内产业发展,其贸易规模逐年扩大,贸易结构逐渐实现优化。产业结构上山东省逐渐由现有“二三一”向“三二一”逐渐转变,并且随着产业开放度的提高,对外贸易和产业的联系日益密切。本文在以往研究的基础上进一步进行文献挖掘,针对国内外学者对于对外贸易与经济增长、产业结构与经济增长和对外贸易与产业结构的国内外相关的文献和理论基础进行阐述和整理。随后本文总结了产业结构和贸易结构之间相互影响的途径。在针对山东省近年来产业数据和贸易数据进行描述性分析之后,本文将山东省产业结构和贸易结构进行合理分类,针对山东省产业结构变动趋势和进出口商品结构变动趋势进行初步相关性分析。随后构建山东省产业结构和贸易结构指标,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等方法,构建VAR向量自回归模型从动态角度分析山东省对外贸易结构与产业结构间相互影响作用情况,并得出山东省对外贸易中出口商品结构调整和产业结构调整存在着相互促进的情况,进口商品结构可以对本省产业结构调整产生正向冲击,而本省产业结构调整对于进口商品结构产生负向冲击。在以上研究的基础上,本文从内部需求和外部需求两个角度分析影响山东省产业结构和贸易结构的主要原因。在外部需求方面,本文以2008年全球金融危机为界限对山东省对外贸易数据进行分段讨论,分析山东省分类出口贸易商品的数量和比重变化。随后引入灰色关联分析方法,研究山东省对外贸易结构和产业结构之间以经济危机为界限前后关联度的变化情况。通过对比分析,山东省劳动密集型出口商品结构和产业结构变动之间的关联性得到提高,资本技术密集型产品出口商品与产业结构之间的关联度出现了较大幅度下降。在内部需求方面,本文将本省的产业结构分类进一步进行细化,引用邓氏灰色关联分析法分析本山东省内部需求结构和产业结构之间的关系。分析得出山东省消费结构的调整对于产业结构的调整具有一定的拉动作用,山东省消费结构得到一定改善,但是整体层次较低,这阻碍了山东省由外需主导型向内需驱动型贸易结构的调整。根据以上实证结论和山东本省实际情况,本文最后将从贸易结构、产业结构和需求结构三个角度为山东省对外贸易和产业结构调整提供相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the deepening and promotion of economic globalization, the flow of factors of production becomes more frequent, the international trade between physical form and non-physical form has achieved rapid development, and the channels of communication have also been broadened. The research on foreign trade and industrial structure has always been the focus of international trade and industrial economics. As an eastern coastal province, Shandong Province, relying on its spatial geographical advantages and the development of industry in the province, has expanded its trade scale year by year and gradually optimized its trade structure. In terms of industrial structure, Shandong Province has gradually changed from "two three one" to "three 21", and with the improvement of industrial openness, the relationship between foreign trade and industry is becoming closer and closer. On the basis of previous research, this paper makes further literature excavations, aiming at the foreign trade and economic growth of domestic and foreign scholars. The related literature and theoretical basis of industrial structure and economic growth and foreign trade and industrial structure are expounded and sorted out. Then this paper summarizes the ways of interaction between industrial structure and trade structure. After the descriptive analysis of the industrial and trade data of Shandong Province in recent years, this paper classifies the industrial structure and trade structure of Shandong Province reasonably. This paper makes a preliminary correlation analysis on the changing trend of industrial structure and import and export commodity structure in Shandong Province. Then we construct the industrial structure and trade structure index of Shandong Province, pass cointegration test, Granger causality test and so on. VAR vector autoregressive model is constructed to analyze the interaction between foreign trade structure and industrial structure in Shandong Province from the dynamic point of view. It is concluded that the readjustment of export commodity structure and the adjustment of industrial structure in Shandong's foreign trade promote each other, and the structure of imported commodities can have a positive impact on the adjustment of the province's industrial structure. The adjustment of the province's industrial structure has a negative impact on the structure of imported commodities. On the basis of the above research, this paper analyzes the main reasons that influence Shandong's industrial structure and trade structure from two angles of internal demand and external demand. In the aspect of external demand, this paper discusses the foreign trade data of Shandong Province in sections based on the global financial crisis of 2008, and analyzes the change of quantity and proportion of classified export commodities in Shandong Province. Then the grey relational analysis method is introduced to study the changes of the correlation degree between the foreign trade structure and the industrial structure of Shandong Province before and after the economic crisis. Through comparative analysis, the correlation between the structure of labor-intensive export commodities and the change of industrial structure in Shandong Province has been improved, and the correlation degree between the export commodities of capital-technology-intensive products and the industrial structure has been greatly reduced. In terms of internal demand, this paper further refines the classification of the province's industrial structure, and uses Deng's grey relational analysis method to analyze the relationship between the internal demand structure and the industrial structure of Shandong Province. The analysis shows that the adjustment of consumption structure in Shandong Province has a certain pulling effect on the adjustment of industrial structure, and the consumption structure of Shandong Province has been improved to some extent, but the overall level is relatively low. This hinders Shandong Province from the external-demand-oriented to the-demand-driven trade structure adjustment. According to the above empirical conclusions and the actual situation of Shandong Province, this paper will provide corresponding policy recommendations for Shandong's foreign trade and industrial structure adjustment from the perspective of trade structure, industrial structure and demand structure.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F752.8;F121.3

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