新常态下能源消耗、技术进步和产业结构对我国经济增长影响的动态效应——基于VAR模型下脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析

发布时间：2018-05-24 00:09

本文选题：经济增长 + 动态效应　；参考：《改革与战略》2016年01期

【摘要】：文章选取我国1978—2013年的时间序列数据,在协整分析的基础上建立向量自回归模型VAR,综合运用格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解分析的研究方法,对能源消耗、技术进步和产业结构变迁对经济增长影响的动态效应进行实证研究。结果表明:从长期看,我国能源消耗及技术进步、产业结构变迁与经济增长存在长期均衡的协整关系;技术进步和产业结构合理化对我国经济增长具有显著正向效应,能源消耗对经济增长起负向效应;从短期看,技术进步、产业结构合理化都与能源消耗存在双向的Granger因果关系,技术进步、产业结构的合理化对经济增长的脉冲响应具有正向效应,而能源消耗对经济增长的冲击表现为先正向后负向,产业结构合理化对能源消耗的抑制作用最为明显。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the time series data from 1978 to 2013 in China, establishes the VAR-based vector autoregressive model on the basis of cointegration analysis, and synthetically applies the Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition analysis to energy consumption. The dynamic effects of technological progress and industrial structure change on economic growth are studied empirically. The results show that, in the long run, there is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between energy consumption and technological progress, industrial structure changes and economic growth in China, and technological progress and rationalization of industrial structure have a significant positive effect on China's economic growth. Energy consumption has a negative effect on economic growth. In the short run, technological progress and rationalization of industrial structure have two-way Granger causality with energy consumption. The rationalization of industrial structure has a positive effect on the impulse response of economic growth, while the impact of energy consumption on economic growth is first positive and negative, and the rationalization of industrial structure has the most obvious inhibitory effect on energy consumption.
【作者单位】：广东顺德职业技术学院经济管理学院;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目“约束型低碳发展政策手段的动态CGE研究”(项目编号:2014M552128) 广东省区域创新体系建设研究基地项目“能源消费产业结构与经济增长的关联分析与政策优化研究”(项目编号:2014-PT03)
【分类号】：F124;F224

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