技术进步偏向对产业结构升级的影响分析

发布时间：2018-07-03 08:19

本文选题：技术进步偏向 + 产业结构升级　；参考：《暨南大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：自改革开放以来,随着我国经济的迅速发展,我国三次产业的结构也发生了一定的调整和优化,但是与发达国家相比,仍然存在诸多不合理的地方。在中性技术进步的框架下,技术进步不会对产业结构产生影响,因此本文基于有偏技术进步的角度研究其对产业结构升级的影响。首先,运用改进的Moore结构值法、前沿生产函数法以及产业结构超前系数分别从速率和方向两个角度测度我国目前的产业结构升级效率:第一产业存在滞后发展的现象,第三产业存在超前发展的现象,且目前产业结构升级处于一个低速缓慢增长的过程中。其次,结合CES生产函数运用供给面系统进行参数估计,测算出1992-2015年三次产业九大细分行业的技术进步偏向指数,发现均存在一定的技术进步偏向性,且国家政策对产业的影响作用大于区域效应。最后,通过建立理论和实证模型,选取社会需求结构、供给结构、技术进步偏向性指数、国际贸易水平等指标运用分位数回归法研究其对我国产业结构的影响分析,发现结果显著并且都存在正效应,并在此实证基础上提出相关政策性建议。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of China's economy, the structure of the three industries has also been adjusted and optimized, but compared with the developed countries, there are still many unreasonable places. In the framework of neutral technological progress, technological progress will not have an impact on the industrial structure, so this paper studies its impact on the upgrading of industrial structure from the perspective of biased technological progress. First of all, we use the improved Moore structure value method, the frontier production function method and the industrial structure leading coefficient to measure the efficiency of industrial structure upgrading from two angles of speed and direction: the phenomenon of lagging development in the primary industry. The tertiary industry develops ahead of time, and the upgrading of industrial structure is in the process of low speed and slow growth. Secondly, combining the CES production function with the supply-side system to estimate the parameters, the technological progress bias index of the nine subdivided industries of the three industries from 1992 to 2015 is calculated, and it is found that there is a certain degree of technological progress bias. And the influence of national policy on industry is greater than regional effect. Finally, through the establishment of theoretical and empirical models, selected social demand structure, supply structure, technological progress bias index, international trade level and other indicators using the quantile regression method to study its impact on China's industrial structure analysis. The results are significant and have positive effects, and on the basis of the empirical analysis, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F121.3

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