战略性新兴产业与传统产业协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-08-25 12:13

【摘要】：2008年爆发的全球金融危机对我国经济发展产生了严重的冲击和影响,也使我国经济发展方式粗放的问题更加突出。为加快推进我国产业结构的升级,实现经济发展方式的转变,党中央、国务院作出了培育和发展战略性新兴产业的战略部署。各省市的战略性新兴产业在产业政策和市场需求的双重驱动下呈现出蓬勃发展的态势,无论是产业地位还是发展质量均明显提升,战略性新兴产业在经济发展中的新引擎作用初步显现。然而,在培育发展战略性新兴产业的过程中,也存在一些认识上的误区。例如,一些地方认为发展战略性新兴产业就是抛弃传统产业,重新建立新产业;还有一些地方选择战略性新兴产业不以传统产业为基础,盲目上马新兴产业项目。这些不切实际的做法造成了新一轮的地方产业结构雷同和恶性竞争。由此可见,我国在培育和发展战略性新兴产业的同时,必须正确处理好战略性新兴产业和传统产业的关系,将两者有机结合起来,使之形成系统合力,促使战略性新兴产业和传统产业形成有效衔接、相互促进、协调发展的良好局面。本文通过系统梳理国内外研究现状和合理界定战略性新兴产业与传统产业的内涵特征,以产业关联和产业耦合为切入点,对我国战略性新兴产业和传统产业的协调发展状况和提升路径进行了较为深入的理论分析和实证研究。具体而言,本文在分析战略性新兴产业和传统产业的地位、互动关系和演化阶段的基础上,采用投入产出模型,以最新的《2012年全国投入产出表》为依据,从产业关联的视角测算了我国战略性新兴产业与传统产业的关联程度,找出了带动作用强的战略性新兴产业部门和与战略性新兴产业关联度高的传统产业部门;采用耦合度模型和耦合协调度模型,以2004-2013年全国30个省市区为样本,从产业耦合的视角测算了战略性新兴产业与传统产业的耦合度和耦合协调度,并分析了其时序变化与空间分布规律;在综合考虑战略性新兴产业与传统产业协调发展的影响因素的基础上,采用面板数据模型和空间面板数据模型,对协调发展的影响因素进行实证分析,检验各因素对战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合协调度的影响程度。基于各项实证分析的结果,提出了促进我国战略性新兴产业与传统产业协调发展的政策建议。主要研究思路和结论概括如下:(1)分析了战略性新兴产业与传统产业的地位、互动关系、互动模式和演化阶段。战略性新兴产业是我国转变经济增长方式的重要突破口,未来将成为我国经济增长的重要引擎,战略性新兴产业的发展有利于我国掌握国际经济竞争主动权,抢占未来经济的制高点;传统产业提供了人民生活所必需的最基本用品和大量工作岗位,保证了我国工业体系的完整性,保障我国经济的高速增长,是当前我国经济的支柱产业,因此,我国产业结构调整的重点和难点在于传统产业的转型升级。两者的互动关系表现为:传统产业可以为战略性新兴产业的孕育提供土壤,为战略性新兴产业提供要素支持和需求支持,因而对战略性新兴产业具有基础支撑作用;战略性新兴产业可以通过技术扩散带动传统产业转型升级,可以通过产业链嵌入带动传统产业转型升级,因而对传统产业具有提升带动作用。战略性新兴产业与传统产业的互动模式有产业关联、产业耦合、产业融合三种方式。战略性新兴产业与传统产业互动关系的演化阶段可以分为混沌无序阶段、相互促进阶段、替代融合阶段。(2)测算了我国战略性新兴产业与传统产业的关联效应。我国传统产业对战略性新兴产业的消耗系数在数量上偏低,七大战略性新兴产业中,传统产业对新能源、新材料、高端装备制造产业的消耗系数较高,对新一代信息技术、生物、节能环保、新能源汽车产业的消耗系数较低,战略性新兴产业对传统产业的渗透作用仍不明显。在影响力系数排名前30位的产业部门中,战略性新兴产业部门占60%,表明战略性新兴产业对其他产业具有显著的拉动作用。影响力高的产业部门主要集中在新一代信息技术产业。传统产业部门中,对战略性新兴产业部门直接消耗大的有“卫生”、“航空运输”、“文化、办公用机械”、“专业技术服务”、“道路运输”等部门,我国应该加快发展这些与战略性新兴产业关联度大的传统产业,从而实现战略性新性产业与传统产业发展的“双赢”。(3)测算并分析了我国战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合协调发展情况。从整体上看,我国战略性新兴产业与传统产业的耦合协调度还不高,处于中度协调阶段。两类产业协调度D值从2004年的“0.341”上升为2013年的“0.424”,协调度虽然呈现出明显的上升趋势,但增幅较为平缓,尚未进入高度协调阶段,提升空间巨大。在空间分布上,2004-2013年两类产业的耦合协调度一直保持“东高西低”的空间格局。东部地区两类产业的协调发展程度最高,协调水平远高于全国平均水平,并于2011年率先进入高度协调阶段;东北地区、中部地区和西部地区的协调水平均低于全国平均水平,仍处于中度协调阶段。大多数省(市、区)的耦合协调度不理想的原因是战略性新兴产业发展仍滞后于传统产业。(4)系统分析了我国战略性新兴产业与传统产业协调发展的影响因素。二者协调发展的影响因素主要有物质资本、人力资本、技术创新能力、服务业、对外开放、基础设施、政策支持。从各因素对两类产业耦合协调度的影响程度来看,影响最大的是技术创新能力,其次是人力资本。物质资本、人力资本、技术创新能力、服务业、基础设施的估计系数均为正,而且通过了不同程度的显著性检验,说明这些因素对两类产业耦合协调度的影响是正向的,对两类产业的协调发展具有促进作用;对外开放的估计系数为负,说明对外开放对耦合协调度的影响是负向的,对两类产业的协调发展具有抑制作用;政策支持的估计系数虽然为正,但数值较小,且只在10%的水平下显著,说明政策支持对两类产业耦合协调度的提升尚未产生显著作用。从空间计量的实证结果来看,我国各省(市、区)间的战略性新兴产业与传统产业耦合协调度之间存在着明显的空间相关性。(5)提出了促进战略性新兴产业与传统产业协调发展的政策建议。促进两类产业关联发展的政策建议有:以传统产业为基础规划战略性新兴产业;多角度促进两类产业互动关联;积极利用新一代信息技术优化产业结构;大力发展生产性服务业为产业转型升级提供支撑;促进关联产业的集聚发展;提升两类产业耦合协调度的政策建议有:淘汰传统产业落后产能,积极对接战略性新兴产业;建立健全产业创新体系,提升产业整体创新水平;加强专业技术人才培养;完善基础设施建设;深化开放合作;改善政策支持环境,完善产业发展体制。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has had a serious impact on China's economic development and made the extensive mode of economic development more prominent. In order to accelerate the upgrading of China's industrial structure and realize the transformation of the mode of economic development, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have made a strategy to cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries. Deployment. The strategic emerging industries of various provinces and municipalities have shown a vigorous development trend under the dual drive of industrial policy and market demand. Both the industrial status and the development quality have been significantly improved. The new engine role of strategic emerging industries in economic development has initially emerged. However, in the process of cultivating and developing strategic emerging industries. For example, some places think that developing strategic emerging industries is to abandon traditional industries and rebuild new industries, and some places choose strategic emerging industries not based on traditional industries and blindly launch new industrial projects. These unrealistic practices have created a new round of local industries. Thus, while cultivating and developing strategic emerging industries, China must correctly handle the relationship between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries, organically combine the two to form a systematic resultant force, and promote effective convergence, mutual promotion and coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries. Through systematically combing the research status at home and abroad, and rationally defining the connotation and characteristics of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries, this paper makes a thorough theoretical analysis and Practice on the coordinated development and promotion path of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries in China from the perspective of industrial linkage and industrial coupling. Specifically, based on the analysis of the status, interaction and evolution stages of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries, this paper uses the input-output model to measure the degree of correlation between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries in China from the perspective of industrial linkage, based on the latest National Input-Output Table 2012. The coupling degree model and the coupling coordination degree model are used to measure the coupling degree and the coupling coordination degree between the strategic emerging industries and the traditional industries from the perspective of industrial coupling. Based on the comprehensive consideration of the influencing factors of the coordinated development between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries, this paper uses panel data model and spatial panel data model to analyze the influencing factors of coordinated development and verify the coupling between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries. Based on the results of empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries in China. Industrialization is an important breakthrough for China to change the mode of economic growth and will become an important engine for China's economic growth in the future. The development of strategic emerging industries is conducive to China's grasp of the initiative of international economic competition and seize the commanding heights of the future economy. It is the pillar industry of our country's economy to ensure the integrity of our country's industrial system and the high-speed growth of our country's economy. Therefore, the key and difficult point of our country's industrial restructuring lies in the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Strategic emerging industries can promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries through technological diffusion, and can also promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries through industrial chain embedding. Therefore, strategic new industries play an important role in promoting traditional industries. There are three modes of interaction between emerging industries and traditional industries: industrial correlation, industrial coupling and industrial convergence. The evolution stage of interaction between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries can be divided into chaotic disorder stage, mutual promotion stage and substitution fusion stage. The consumption coefficient of China's traditional industries to strategic emerging industries is on the low side in quantity. Among the seven strategic emerging industries, the consumption coefficient of traditional industries to new energy, new materials and high-end equipment manufacturing industries is higher, to the new generation of information technology, biology, energy conservation and environmental protection, the consumption coefficient of new energy automobile industry is lower, and to strategic emerging industries. The penetration of traditional industries is still not obvious. Of the top 30 sectors with influential coefficients, strategic emerging industries account for 60%, indicating that strategic emerging industries have a significant pulling effect on other industries. The departments that directly consume large amounts of new industries are "health", "air transportation", "culture, office machinery", "professional and technical services" and "road transport". China should speed up the development of these traditional industries which are closely related to strategic emerging industries, so as to realize the "double" development of strategic new industries and traditional industries. (3) Estimate and analyze the coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries in China. On the whole, the coordinated degree between strategic emerging industries and traditional industries is not high, and is in a moderate coordinated stage. However, there is an obvious upward trend, but the growth rate is relatively gentle, has not yet entered a high degree of coordination stage, and there is a huge space for improvement. In 2011, it took the lead in entering a highly coordinated stage. The coordinated level of Northeast China, Central China and Western China is lower than the national average, and still in a moderate coordinated stage. The main factors influencing the coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries are material capital, human capital, technological innovation capability, service industry, opening to the outside world, infrastructure and policy support. The estimated coefficients of material capital, human capital, technological innovation ability, service industry and infrastructure are all positive, and have passed the different degree of significance test, which shows that these factors have a positive impact on the coupling and coordination degree of the two types of industries, and promote the coordinated development of the two types of industries. The estimated coefficient is negative, indicating that opening up has a negative impact on the coupling degree of coordination, and has an inhibitory effect on the coordinated development of the two types of industries. The empirical results of spatial measurement show that there is a significant spatial correlation between the coupling and coordination degree of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries among provinces (cities, districts). (5) Put forward policy recommendations to promote the coordinated development of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries. Based on the basic planning of strategic emerging industries; multi-angle to promote the interaction between the two types of industries; actively use the new generation of information technology to optimize the industrial structure; vigorously develop producer services to provide support for industrial transformation and upgrading; promote the agglomeration of related industries; enhance the coordination of the two types of industrial coupling policy recommendations are: the elimination of traditional industries Lagging capacity, actively docking strategic emerging industries; establishing and improving industrial innovation system to enhance the overall level of industrial innovation; strengthening the training of professional and technical personnel; improving infrastructure construction; deepening open cooperation; improving the policy support environment and improving the industrial development system.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F124

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